Sam Freedman

New post: Is Andy Burnham overrated? Why are the Tories so relaxed about their dire election results? Do the BBC give Farage an easy ride? Answering lots of your questions. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-burn…

@mrianleslie @Finumus1 @mikebutcher I say that in the piece. The argument here is that *if* these worst case predictions seem like they're coming true there are still ways to avoid them.

@Finumus1 @Samfr @mikebutcher 30% unemployment is highly unlikely, according to most economists in US - probably in China too!

The problem is that, given Mythos et al, slowing down AI progress would lead to threats to national security. Plus, China is not about to slow its own AI advancement. And in the meantime, there’s far too much economic incentive for startups to keep coming up with new approaches to AI.

@Finumus1 @mikebutcher Yes but in this scenario every govt will need to stop it because otherwise they will be overwhelmed.

@Samfr @mikebutcher Yes, indeed. The issue is that if you stop AI in your country, then the country that doesn't is going to out compete you and you'll be poor. Already feeling this w/ US based colleagues having access to tools the AI companies won't release in EU/UK for "regulatory" reasons.

@Finumus1 @mikebutcher Climate change leads to bad long-term outcomes not to riots. Govts react to riots.

@Samfr @mikebutcher no, but you're misunderstanding the competitive dynamic, it's quite possible for competition to lead to an equilibrium that nobody wants. See: Climate Change.

@ElectionNight5 As I say it's not worth it for normalising even more explicitly racist ideas.

@Samfr Splitting the reform vote - sounds good, no?

Restore is on 7% in that Makerfield constituency poll. I wrote this week why they're a threat that needs to be taken seriously. samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-burn…

I also think the techbros are wrong and that we're not facing 20-30% unemployment within five years.

I'm in @ObserverUK today on why a lot of the AI/jobpocalypse debate misses the point. observer.co.uk/news/opinion-a…

New post: How much damage is Steve Witkoff doing? Can NATO help open the Strait of Hormuz? Will there be a war over Taiwan? @LawDavF answers your questions. samf.substack.com/p/how-much-dam…

@nnimrodd Vox pops are a fairly useless indicator.

@Samfr Having watched this are u still confident about Burnham chances? youtu.be/nwTjPhZAeIU

New post: Is Andy Burnham overrated? Why are the Tories so relaxed about their dire election results? Do the BBC give Farage an easy ride? Answering lots of your questions. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-burn…

My answers to subscribers’ questions. Many deal with Ukraine - including possibility of victory and Putin’s ignorance about the front. A recurring theme is loss of US capacity and competence and European ability to step forward to fill the gaps. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/how…?

I did my answers earlier in the week - covering everything from Andy Burnham's chances in Makerfield, to whether the BBC go to easy on Reform and the potential Democrat nominees for 2028. samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-burn…

All these questions covered:

@MartinG1492 I don't think they're lying they're just not talking about the fiscal trade offs we're facing.

@Samfr What do you think they are lying about?

Are there spaces for yet more new parties in our increasingly fragmented system? Now that polling 15%-20% makes you a viable player the barriers to entry are lower than ever before.

@MartinG1492 No I don't think they are. I wouldn't describe their policy agenda as "radical centrist" or particular honest.

@Samfr Aren't the Lib Dems in the space you describe Sam? It's a real trend for hacks & commentators to overlook them. It's so common I wonder if it's deliberate?

@politixintheuk @sales_belinda I mean if you'd read anything I ever write you'd know that wasn't true.

@sales_belinda @Samfr He is a Tory.

Why I think Burnham will win Makerfield.