Sam Freedman

New post out: "How to follow the elections" My guide to Thursday night and Friday morning. When results will come in, what to look out for, and how the narrative will form during the day. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-to-follo…

Inevitably much of the discussion around these elections has focused on Starmer's future. My sense is there's no coherent plan but things could spiral during the day. Which is why the order in which results come out, and how they're interpreted matters so much.

@Samfr 'What betting markets to suspend and when to suspend them' Thanks Sam, very informative 👍

@geoffforcrookes There are around 50 councils counting overnight. Scotland and Wales aren't till Friday afternoon.

@Samfr It seems that counting on the Friday is becoming the norm for local elections. Most of the early hard news likely to come from Scotland and Wales.

Plus links to all my prediction posts. Should set you up to assess how well everyone is doing against expectations. And how serious the threat to Starmer is.

New post out: "How to follow the elections" My guide to Thursday night and Friday morning. When results will come in, what to look out for, and how the narrative will form during the day. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-to-follo…

@LawDavF And lots more coming up including my analysis of next week's election results once they've happened. All my previews can be found here. samf.substack.com/p/elections-20…

And @LawDavF on why Putin is running out of time and facing decisions he's been desperately trying to avoid. samf.substack.com/p/is-time-runn…

Lot's more on the site this week including this exclusive poll with a counter-intuitive finding that's v important for British politics: Median voters aren't the same people as swing voters... samf.substack.com/p/wheres-the-c…

New post: "Back to the Future" The rise of predictions markets means billions in bets on world events from wars to weather. It risks not only insider trading scandals but creating distorting feedback loops as people try to change the future. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/bac…

@dominicghudson Yep - especially when new issues arise so fast.

@Samfr Really interesting and troubling piece. These do feel like genuinely extraordinary times in the US. Also an important if slightly oblique reminder of how incredibly important and difficult it is to regulate well. (Across the board, that is).

Apart from anything else the rise of prediction markets is another spectacular example of Trumpian corruption...

Sam’s latest on the dangers of unregulated prediction markets, including the incentives to manipulate events to make bets come true (and another example of dubious Trump family dealings). (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/back-to-the-…

@Simmons__ Yep seems v likely.

@Samfr Strikes me there must be rampant money laundering using niche events to move money on both sides of a bet

New post just out from @LawDavF "Is time running out for Putin?" With his economy in trouble, dissent rising, and no progress on the frontline is Putin is being confronted with difficult questions that he doesn't have answers to. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/is-…