Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer

44 posts

Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer

Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer

@Spaceateer

$ASTS;

๊ฐ€์ž…์ผ Ekim 2025
26 ํŒ”๋กœ์ž‰4 ํŒ”๋กœ์›Œ
Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer ๋ฆฌํŠธ์œ—ํ•จ
Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder
Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder@Reformed_Traderยท
$ASTS RSI (14) dropped below 38 today. Since 2025 it has dropped below 38 level six times, including today. In the prior 5 cases when it dipped below 38 a bottom was made within 1-5 days, in some cases making a lower low. This signal has been stronger when coupled with a hammer candle. We have both today. If the pattern holds, confirmation will be the RSI getting back above 38 and not making a lower low. *NFA
Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder tweet mediaReformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder tweet media
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Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer
@asymmetric_bets @Reformed_Trader Doesnโ€™t change the fact that theyโ€™re embarrassingly behind schedule. Their communicated targets are way off actual delivery. I get that they want to push the team, but keep that communication internal! Donโ€™t release it to the marketโ€ฆ
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๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธsymmetric
๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธsymmetric@asymmetric_betsยท
Many in the market donโ€™t understand that each shipment/launch so far has been unique. Changes in the satellite size, DOW specifications, stacking for the first time with the new design for BB 8-10, etc. Weโ€™re just now reaching the point where the manufacturing process should become mostly standard and repetitive.
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Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder
Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder@Reformed_Traderยท
$ASTS great overview. As Iโ€™ve mentioned, the market is assuming that manufacturing wonโ€™t ramp up because of past delays, without considering the context. Manufacturing bottlenecks are not permanent. Once a design is thoroughly completed and tested, the ramp can begin. While the market is fixated on the timeline of the launch ramp, itโ€™s overlooking the inevitable nature of it. Additionally, itโ€™s applying a standard to ASTS that itโ€™s unwillingly extending to SpaceX and now Amazon. The market is eager to believe that SpaceX will undoubtedly commence launching their new D2D constellation in 2027 without any setbacks, and Amazon will follow suit in 2028 (despite the absence of a known prototype or adequate spectrum for a comparable D2D solution) without any setbacks either. Whether the manufacturing hockey stick materializes over the next few months or next few quarters there is a clearer path that by 2027 ASTS will have enough sats in orbit with MNO partners that cash flow generation will be one for the history books.
TheKOOKReport@thekookreport

๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ A fantastic launch, a terrible deployment into the wrong orbit, but the FCC blunts the emotional damage by approving SCS while at the same time adding a wrinkle in global S-band. That, and more, on this week's Weeklyโ€ฆ

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Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder
Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder@Reformed_Traderยท
$ASTS daily charts: the key concern is we officially closed below the uptrend from last April. This opens up downside without a quick reclaim or a failure to hold the 175ema and 200sma. This brings into focus the anchored VWAP from last April which sits just above $66, which aligns with my weekly chart level of the weekly 50sma also around $66. There's a trend line on the linear chart that is just below today's close that we tested on Monday's open. If we lose that trend it aligns with another trend also around $66. Since going public, every April has printed an April low that often preceded a strong rally that peaked at the end of June to as late as August. Only in 2022 during the bear market did it take out April's low, but it still rallied far higher by August. The 300EMA currently aligns with the $65/$66 point of interest. With this much confluence both where we closed today and at $66 we have two points of interest that will be very important into next week. Losing last week's low sets it up for a rapid sweep to $66 area imo. How we react at either Monday's low or $65/$66 will determine how deep and how long this correction could last. My lean is a major low will be put in next week or possibly the start of May. Whether that's low to mid $70 or mid $60 probably won't matter by the summer as I still expect this to trade much higher by then. Lastly, it's worth noting that technical levels can undercut and not necessarily invalidate if a reclaim materializes. Have a good weekend! *NFA
Reformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder tweet mediaReformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder tweet mediaReformed Tr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธder tweet media
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Anp๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธnman
Anp๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธnman@spacanpanmanยท
$ASTS: AST SpaceMobile Catalyst Trackerโ„ข๏ธ A review of what has been and what is to come Upcoming Catalysts: โ˜‘๏ธBB8 - BB10 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9 โ˜‘๏ธBB11 - BB13 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9 โ˜‘๏ธBB14 - BB16 Delivery to Florida and Launch on Falcon 9 โ˜‘๏ธBlock-2 Launches in Batches of 3-4x or 6-8x satellites every 1-2 months โ˜‘๏ธGolden Dome (SHIELD Awarded, NOBLE Up Next) โ˜‘๏ธFirstNet Investment and Definitive Commercial Agreement โ˜‘๏ธFCC Approval of Ligado Modification Application โ˜‘๏ธExecution of more Definitive Commercial Agmts w/ Prepaid Revenue and/or Investment w/ More than 50 global MNOs โ˜‘๏ธUnlocking portion of $20M, $25M, and $20M in Revenue Prepayments from AT&T, Vodafone and Verizon upon completion of milestones โ˜‘๏ธBeta Testing w/ AT&T and FirstNet in 1H 2026 โ˜‘๏ธUpdates on Google Services Agmt Partnership โ˜‘๏ธInitiation of Research Coverage by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, others โ˜‘๏ธExpansion of 11x contracts w/ Department of Defense, Space Development Agency, Defense Innovation Unit, Missile Defense Agency and more โ˜‘๏ธFCC 5G Fund grant โ˜‘๏ธProgress on 8 to 32x Block-2 BlueBirds in currently in Production โ˜‘๏ธConfirmation of Production Ramp to 6x satellites a Month โ˜‘๏ธProposal for PNT Service Accepted by FCC as Alternative to GPS โ˜‘๏ธInitial Commercial Service w/ AT&T, Rakuten, Verizon, Vodafone in late 2026 โ˜‘๏ธSecuring +$500M of EXIM and IFC non-dilutive Funding โ˜‘๏ธPursuit of L- and S-Band Spectrum Licenses Globally โ˜‘๏ธEU Allocation of 2GHz MSS Spectrum to SatCo JV โ˜‘๏ธCommercial agreements โ˜‘๏ธStrategic Partnerships and Investments to Focus on AI Data Center Opportunity โ˜‘๏ธCatalysts the SpaceMob have yet to Contemplate Recently Completed Milestones: ๐Ÿšจ FCC Approval for Full US SCS Commercial Service โœ…$45M Verizon Commercial Prepayment Unlocked โœ…BB7 ๐Ÿ’ Launch on Blue Origin New Glenn-3 โœ…7x New Design Composite Rings Delivered to Midland โœ…Acquisition of New Manufacturing Space in Midland, TX focused exclusively on Micron production โœ…Telus Definitive Commercial Agreement w Strategic Investment and $200M Committed Revenue (speculated) โœ…Partnership with Orange โœ…Partnership with Taiwan Mobile โœ…Partnership with AXIAN Telecom โœ…Satellite Connect Europe Partnership (โ€œSCEโ€) with Telefonica โœ…SCE Partnership with Orange โœ…SCE Partnership with CK Hutchinson โœ…SCE Partnership with Sunrise Switzerland โœ…SCE Partnership with Vodafone Romania โœ…SCE Partnership with VodafoneThree UK โœ…SCE Partnership with Vodafone Ireland โœ…AST Awarded $30M Prime Contract by US SDA for Halo Europa Program โœ…$63M to 71M of 2H 2026 Revenue โœ…Development of AI Engine to Dynamically Manage Satellite Capacity and Spectrum Efficiency = Seeking 3-10x Capacity Improvement โœ…Disclosed over $1.2 billion in Aggregate Contracted Revenue Commitments from Commercial Partners โœ…Raised $1.08B 2.25% Convertible Note resulting in $4B of Pro Forma Cash โœ…BB6 Unfolding Phased Array โœ…AST Awarded Prime Contract Position on US Missile Defense Agency SHIELD Program โœ…Filed w/ FCC to modify Existing License to use S-Band spectrum outside of the US โœ…$175M Saudi Telecom prepayment to be made by 2025YE โœ…BB6 Launched from India on ISRO LVM3 โœ…Micron Production to Support 6x a Month by End of Q3 2025 โœ…Expanded Manufacturing Floor Space to 500,000 Square Feet โœ…1,800 Global Workforce โœ…Established Germany as SatCo JV operations center, filed constellation with ITU โœ…Closed $420M bridge financing to support Ligado spectrum transaction โœ…Saudi Telecom 10-Year Definitive Commercial Agreement w/ $175M prepayment and over $1.8B value โœ…Confirmed L- and S- band Spectrum to be Incorporated into Next 3GPP release โœ…Verizon Definitive Commercial Agreement โœ…Raised $1.15B 2.0% Convertible Note resulting in $3.2B of Pro Forma Cash and Liquidity โœ…Successful Video and Voice Testing with Bell Canada โœ…US Bankruptcy Court confirms AST and Ligado L-band spectrum transaction transaction, deal now only subject to FCC appoval โœ…Acquired Global S-Band Spectrum Priority Rights held Under International Telecommunication Union โœ…Successfully Completed the First-ever Native Voice Call (VoLTE) and Rext (SMS) with a Standard Cell Phone using AT&T Spectrum and Core Network โœ…Hired JR Wilson as Chief of Networks and Spectrum, formerly AT&T VP of Tower Strategy, Roaming & In-Building Solutions โœ…Raised $575M 2.375% Convertible Note w/ Capped Call struck at $120, resulting in $1.5B of Pro Forma Cash on Balance Sheet โœ…Repurchased $360M of $460M 4.25% Convertible Note โœ…Entered into $550M of Non-Recourse Senior Secured Term Loan to fund Ligado Transaction โœ…Secured $100M Equipment Loan Facility โœ…Moved to Russell 1000 from Russell 2000 Index โœ…Demonstrated World's First Tactical NTN Connectivity over Standard Mobile Devices with Defense Prime Fairwinds Technologies โœ…Announced Latest MNO Partnership with Vodafone Idea of India โœ…Hired Jennifer Manner as SVP of Regulatory Affairs and International Strategy, Former NTIA Senior Advisor of Space and Policy and EchoStar SVP of Regulatory Affairs โœ…FCC Accepts ASTโ€™s Application for US Commercial Service โœ…FCC Chair Brendan Carr and Senator Ted Cruz visit HQ in support of AST โœ…Verizon and AT&T Spectrum Lease Agreements filed w/ FCC โœ…FCC grants STA for beta testing w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Bell Canada, and Rakuten โœ…FCC grants STA for Firstnet Evaluation on Public Safety Band 14 โœ…AST SpaceMobile Forms SatCo Joint Venture w/ Vodafone to Better Serve European market, Selects Luxembourg as HQ and Germany for NOC โœ…Secured $43M and $20M Contracts w/ US Space Development Agency and Defense Innovation Unit โœ…AST5000 ASIC Development Finished and Integration into Block-2 Sats in Q2 2026 โœ…Successful Video Calls Completed w/ AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten โœ…Exercised Multi-launch Agmts w/ SpaceX, Blue Origin and ISRO โœ…Reached +3,800 Patent & Patent pending Claims โœ…Initiation of Research Coverage by Bank of America, Clear Street, Roth Capital, Cantor Fitzgerald, Oppenheimer and William Blair โœ…Established Coordination Agmt w/ US National Science Foundation Covering Satellite and Ground-based Astronomy Operations โœ…Closed $460M 4.25% Convertible Debt Funding โœ…Signed 2-3x Additional Global MNOs, Bringing the Total to +53x Covering +3.2B Subscribers โœ…Opened European Research Center w/ Vodafone and University of Malaga in Spain โœ…Signed Deal w/ Singaporeโ€™s Defense Science and Technology Agency โœ…Joined 5G Automotive Association, which Develops and Promotes 5G-based Solutions for Connected Autonomous Vehicles
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Anp๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธnman
Anp๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธnman@spacanpanmanยท
$ASTS: With the haters and doubters out in full force celebrating the loss of BlueBird-7, I'm taking advantage of the dip to add.
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Tanner Kirk Ottaway
Tanner Kirk Ottaway@tottaway22ยท
Bunch of retail panic dumping shares overnight, will be scooped up tomorrow. Next sats done shortly, launch by mid June. Monthly SpaceX launches. Will be all good. One lessen for everyone is whatโ€™s possible on launches especially with new vehicles. Hopefully Neutron doesnโ€™t have a failure, but important to remember when the time comes.
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RocketMan
RocketMan@RKLBManยท
$ASTS getting murdered premarket. Reminder: BB7 worked and it wasn't their fault. Blue Origin failed. Complete overreaction IMO. And yes, some macro in these numbers too.
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Blue Origin
Blue Origin@blueoriginยท
Our third New Glenn launch may be visible to those in the regions below, depending on weather conditions. Hereโ€™s when and where to look to the skies!
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Anp๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธnman
Anp๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธnman@spacanpanmanยท
$ASTS: The great thing about "competitive" noise and a large holder needing to sell shares to right their financial picture - you know why exactly a stock is off, which yields an attractive entry point ahead of positive catalyst. While people complain, I've been busy this week.
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Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer
Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer@Spaceateerยท
@CatSE___ApeX___ Interesting take Catse. Would you be able to address the fact that the FCC is saying theyโ€™re looking at three players in the market (AMZN, SpaceX and AST)? To what extent would AMZN have to disclose any arrangement with AST to get regulatory approval?
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C๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธtSE
C๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธtSE@CatSE___ApeX___ยท
๐ŸŽWeโ€™re stuck with NB but need to keep our emergency SOS selling pitch running. ๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธWell your spectrum is compatible with our broadband satellites Block3 launching 2027. ๐ŸŽItโ€™s not really ours and they wonโ€™t sell it without the satellites. ๐Ÿงถ๐Ÿˆโ€โฌ› 1/
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SpaceGr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธmmys
SpaceGr๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธmmys@SpaceGrammysยท
$ASTS Abel Avellan must have the biggest balls on the planet going up against the two richest people in the world. Surely at some point he must have told Elon and Bezos that asts isn't for sale. The confidence he must have in his plan and technology is hard to fathom.
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Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer
Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer@Spaceateerยท
@JacobKeeton20 Are we concerned with Starlink and AMZN being able to launch their own satellites whenever they need due to their in house launch capability?
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Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer
Space-๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ-teer@Spaceateerยท
@thekookreport Possible but unlikely. We literally have the FCC telling us that there will be three players - AMZN deploying on ASTS would be unlikely given this, wouldnโ€™t it?
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TheKOOKReport
TheKOOKReport@thekookreportยท
Not saying this will happen, but it would be one hell of a plot twist if the $GSAT deal really was just $AMZN buying spectrum and then deploying it via $ASTS like all of the other MNO partners.
C๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธtSE@CatSE___ApeX___

@tomster000 ๐ŸŽฏ Deploying GSAT L/S spectrum rights on $ASTS Block2 sats in the way there is already a filing to do so with Ligados rights is the obvious way to get that โ€next generationโ€ high SE service operational by 2028. Itโ€™s the smart way & missing piece now that Amazon secured spectrum.

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Only6inches ๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ
Only6inches ๐Ÿ…ฐ๏ธ@Only6inchesยท
$ASTS Still hiring like crazy biggest month since June 2025. The company is rapidly becoming a juggernaut of the industry (more FTEs than $IRDM, $GSAT, $TSAT etc.) We will likely have more FTEs hired YTD by end of April than we had when I started tracking in October 2021.
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Kevin Chen
Kevin Chen@Defiantclient2ยท
$ASTS: ๐Ÿšจ @orange partners with @AST_SpaceMobile and Satellite Connect Europe on Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite connectivity, starting with demonstrations in Romania Orange has ~270M mobile customers as of late 2025. โœ… orange.com/en/press-releaโ€ฆ
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