CK Capital@CKCapitalxx
$ASTS is at $93 with a $35 billion market cap.
SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation. Starlink, their satellite connectivity business, is estimated at roughly $1.17 trillion of that, representing about 67% of the total value.
Now compare the two businesses side by side.
Starlink competes with carriers. They built their own hardware, their own subscriber base, and they fight for every customer against the same telecoms that already own the relationship.
Customer acquisition is expensive. The addressable market is people willing to buy new hardware and switch providers.
$ASTS gets paid by the carriers. AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, 50+ operators representing 3 billion existing subscribers. Zero customer acquisition cost. No hardware change required.
The carriers flip a switch and their entire subscriber base gains satellite coverage overnight. The business model does not compete with the industry. It powers it.
Starlink is valued at $1.17 trillion. $ASTS is valued at $35 billion. Same technology category. Arguably better business model. 33x valuation difference.
If $ASTS ever reaches half of Starlink’s implied valuation that is $585 billion. On roughly 390 million fully diluted shares that is over $1,500 per share from $93 today.
Half. Not equal. Half.
The market is pricing $ASTS like a startup.
The contracts, the satellites, and the carrier relationships say otherwise.
