@EvanMiya Great analysis! I assume teams also overpay for great per game stats and underpay for player age.
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Steve Fall
7.1K posts
Steve Fall
@StatsMan
Sports analytics, AI, dad, world traveler.
Atlanta, Georgia 가입일 Ocak 2009
1.5K 팔로잉2.1K 팔로워
The NIL market for college basketball is now up 65% from last offseason. And there's a certain player type that's being overpaid.
Read my full analysis of this year's NIL market trends 👇
blog.evanmiya.com/p/nil-market-t…
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So true! The 2023 Heat had the most surprising playoff run in NBA history, but no one noticed because of this preoccupation with rings.
Hardwood Paroxysm@HPbasketball
The best thing we can do as an online community of NBA fans is normalize the idea that non-title success matters. Making a Final Four is a real accomplishment. Winning 60 games is awesome no matter how the playoffs turn out. Winning 50 games is a good season. Making the second round IS playoff success. Everything that is creating problems for the quality of games that isn't the league's absolutely asinine schedule in the face of changes to play are caused by a root idea that everything short of the title is a failure.
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@GarretHohl Sounds about right. More often than baseball and way less than the NBA.
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@StatsMan We estimate the best team in the league theoretically wins the cup 22% of the time
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People talk about Presidents' Trophy curse for the NHL... but there is no such thing.
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@HPbasketball It’s the only sport left where a great team always wins it all.
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There's a whole hero's journey thing here, where want the player to be up against impossible odds. Jordan had INSANE talent. Steph had Klay and Dray and THEN KD.
NBA history is not David vs. Goliath, that is not the story. It's usually Goliath kicking the shit out of David. There are exceptions, but that's the norm.
I also think it's great players' responsibility to make the roster look good. If you keep thinking the team around a guy sucks, they're probably not playing in a way that gets the most of them, and that is led by the best player.
Tyler@tylerbritton_
If the goal of basketball is to win, and you can only win at the highest level with great teammates, why do we value players who do “more with less” than those who do “more with more”? Sure, Derrick White, Alex Caruso or Draymond Green in a #1 option role wouldn’t lift a lesser cast to playoff wins…. but does it matter? When great on-ball creators get their team to the playoffs and lose in the first round, we default to “once they get a cast around them….” instead of “how would this skill set look like on a team that actually has a chance to win?” The ability to complement other talented players is almost always more important than the ability to lift less talented players. It isn’t about “stars vs role players”, it’s about which skills lead to NBA championships. And those who can complement, or even enhance the best players in the league without diminishing any of their own value will always be among the most valuable.
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@sponhourm There’s significant randomness in the World Cup. The 12th- best team can definitely win it.
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When in doubt go big. Players 6’7 and taller have a positive Net RAPM on average with the biggest gains coming above 6’11. Guards 6’0 and below are much worse on average. Although it’s simple, height is one of the strongest predictors of value in CBB.
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Updated historical Elo chart for the newly crowned men's basketball National Champion, Michigan.
Greatest Michigan team of all time? They have a strong argument.
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@NateSilver538 I'm surprised that Duke and Arizona didn't make the list too. We had three incredibly great teams this year.
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Man that Michigan team was really good. In fact, they finished with our 3rd-highest year-end COOPER rating ever. Congrats to the Wolverines and the Big Ten!
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"If UConn wins this tomorrow night, we've gotta start talking about Dan Hurley as maybe the best college basketball coach ever. Is he in that realm of conversation now?"
@GoodmanHoops on @UConnMBB making ANOTHER title game 🤯
🎥: youtu.be/RaW_ZZjVsbU
YouTube
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Cadeau commits just 3.2 fouls per 40 minutes. Absolutely no reason for sitting him with two fouls.
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@ButlerGuru As a Syracuse fan, I remember a banked three to beat the shot clock by one of the Butler guards. That Orange team was loaded!
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A lot of people remember Gordon Hayward’s halfcourt heave vs Duke
But it was the baseline jumper the play before that keeps me up at night
Watching it live, I thought it was going in. Just a smidge too long. Would’ve given Butler the lead with ~5 seconds to go
#DawgsOnly
Butler Basketball Guru@ButlerGuru
16 years ago today (4/5/10) 2010 NCAA Tournament National Championship game in Lucas Oil Stadium: Butler vs Duke The Gordon Hayward half court heave… Butler was just inches away from a title. But Duke came out on top, 61-59 Still hurts. But man, what a ride #DawgsOnly
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@EvanMiya One of three incredible teams this year, along with Duke and Arizona.
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If Michigan wins the national title, it has an argument to be the greatest team of all time.
In a year with more talent in college basketball than ever before, they are blitzing everybody with a pulse.
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@MikeAsti11 He’s only had one great team based on unbiased rankings (2023-24). That’s not enough even if they win tomorrow.
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@StatsMan It is not just titles but the era he's doing it in. And if you can't use his titles, then you can't use anyone else's titles, often won in eras you could keep the same roster for years and years and had to go through fewer teams.
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Like him or not, Dan Hurley has a case for being on the Mt. Rushmore of college basketball coaches with a third title. He can already argue for a spot now based on what he’s accomplished in a relatively short period in this era.
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In a different game, Illinois has 4 extra buckets because these 50-50 attempts at the rim go down.
Evan Miyakawa@EvanMiya
Illinois has had 3 or 4 shots at the rim that looked like they were going in and then rimmed out. Really brutal misfortune there, and it's costing them.
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@JacobBSpeaks Not sure what you mean by nerdy. Every insider should use them to separate luck from skill.
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Column: Spent the day digging into NCAA Tournament shocker shot history to see where the Braylon Mullins bomb ranks. Distilled it to a dozen shots -- not necessarily in order of greatness, but the ones that left us slackjawed. From 12 to 1: bit.ly/4uWR2q9
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Duke recruited the best freshman 4 times in past 7 years. But Cooper Flagg and Paolo Banchero lost in Final Four; Zion Williamson and now Cameron Boozer didn't even get that far.
Why? Because Duke's not covering itself at the most important position.
sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basket…
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Great point, but in many cases these stars were three or four years younger than opposing players. Age matters.
Andy Hutchins@AndyHutchins
Duke has had all of Zion Williamson, Cooper Flagg, and Cameron Boozer in the last decade and has made one Final Four appearance — and not played for a national title — with them. The NCAA Tournament is impossibly hard.
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