Staudinger

Specific to $RKLB, today's candle went as expected. What I mean by that is we saw an initial pop but it was quickly faded, placing the closing price below the 20 sma once again. We're also seeing lower highs and lower lows in this current downtrend (yellow dashed lines). There is also a gap in the volume from here down to $51ish where there is strong support (red line + green rectangle). This would coincide with a RSI and MACD reset, while the SPX will be close to bottoming at that time as well. At least this is my analysis and corresponding sentiment at this time. GL and NFA...

@Staudinger333 @bennybigbull I respect your work, so let's expand on this. What in the charts is showing $50s are inevitable. I don't question that PCE and other important macro variables can impact, but is there something in the chart that can be seen right now?

$RKLB currently sitting at the 20SMA, but strong resistance above at the 50SMA and the downtrend line around $72.

@SteelCBlues I think there certainly could be a pop but is this scenario, where Iran charges a toll for passage, not already priced in? Oil prices are likely to stay above $100/barrel.

@Staudinger333 Unless there’s a deal this week. Then its gonna rip faces off.

$SPX: This is shaping up to be one heck of a bull trap. Retesting the 200 sma soon after closing above the 20 sma today. RSI and MACD showed positive divergence as well. However, the daily volume has declined on this bounce, suggesting that there is little conviction to carry it much past the 200 sma. All this after a bearish 20/200d sma crossover and the similarity to last year's tariff tantrum crash should not be taken lightly. Even with tariffs and the Iran war representing extremely disparate events, it would still seem the impact to the markets is comparable. GLTA and NFA...

BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz 10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations President Trump's "deadline" for a peace deal with Iran is 25 hours away.

@OwlDoors Yes

@Staudinger333 this can affect to RL and AST too?

@IncomeSharks @APompliano Exactly.

@APompliano The most crowded trade. Most don't realize it's more likely war ends, oil goes down, and stocks go down.

Markets are going to rip higher when the Iran war is ended. Every investor is simply holding their breath until that moment.

Okay, that's really cool...

$SPY closed with just ~36M shares traded, about 60% below average and the lowest volume since February of last year. Very bizarre.

This might be the most ignorant thing I've read all day. "TAM = solar system+". Okay, so people should invest in hopium and the Elon premium without taking into consideration the TAM of the space industry and the current and expected revenue of the company (i.e., fundamentals). Got it.

@aaronburnett @Staudinger333 Not worth engaging with people who can't even see further than 6 months into the future... Probably just tell them TAM = solar system+ so 2T is peanuts. No imagination at all...

Actual transcript from the executive director of the information's recent podcast. This is some people's preferred business news source... Martin Peers: "Um, can I just jump in there? Uh, Akash—I'm not as smart as Cory. He's much more plugged into this world than I am. So I just look at this from a very humble average person point of view and the idea that people, that if you had the opportunity to invest in *Anthropic* right now you wouldn't... you know, and or whenever. Uh, the idea that you wouldn't want to buy shares in the company that owns *Claude* that is doing really well, I just don't really believe. I think these are different companies. *SpaceX* is massively overvalued. It's run by this another crazy person who is trying to persuade people that *SpaceX* is worth trillions. Um, like I just don't think that that make—you know, I understand the, the sort of theory that Cory is outlining, but I just don't really buy it. I think that, um, the AI companies are going to be, you know, of themselves. People will sort of look at them. They're incredible growth. They're driving this massive transformation. *SpaceX* is not growing that much. It's dependent on some really uncertain variables. It's just, you know, and I realize *SpaceX*... *SpaceX* will get the *Musk* fans. Uh, but I'm not sure that these, those three are equal." This monologue was in response to the Cory expressing concern that three mega IPOs could suck too much capital out of the market based on how much they collectively are looking for. Martin can't fathom a world where SpaceX, Starlink, xAI, and X could even compare to Anthropic, he actually sounded almost offended at the assertion that Anthropic shares might not get enough demand. Everyone's entitled to their opinion. It's the faux humility immediately followed by obvious EDS that really gets me.

So I notice you did not address the concern about SpaceX being valued at 2T, which is essentially Amazon but with ~$700B less in revenue. I get that SpaceX is the leader in the new space economy, but they are not without competition either. Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, AST Spacemobile, etc. are all competing (and in some cases have far superior tech = AST). If Starlink fails at D2D and/or orbital data centers turn out to be too expensive and/or impractical, then the valuation implodes, IMO. If we're being intellectually honest, the $2T is about $0.8-1T Elon premium, as we've seen previously with Tesla, and I don't say this lightly because I am a big fan of Elon's leadership and success in so many disparate industries. With respect to Anthropic, they are taking over the leadership position in AI. Better than OpenAI, xAI, etc. They are replacing (and will continue to do so) many existing SaaS companies while continuing to grow revenue at a faster pace than SpaceX will in the next five years. I know a lot of SpaceX investors love the $2T valuation, but from a fundamental perspective, there is little to back it up. It's mostly hype and trust in Elon more than anything else.

You’re basing this on a mythical access to existing private shares. Anthropic would not be IPOing at 400B. Even at 600B (it will probably be higher) ~3x below SpaceX, you’re trading a business with large growing durable cash flows backed by infrastructure and at best one competitor with AI growth opportunity on top for a software business whose proven to have fast growing enterprise relationships that’s only a slightly different business model than traditional SaaS and many competitors and open source bottom end pressure. Risks are just fundamentally different. I think Anthropic/OpenAi feels better to some investors because it looks and feels like SaaS with a better tailwind and narrative. But the moat is mainly distribution and switching costs. Comfort can be good but not guarantee of success.

Destiny!

@Chimp_Capital Looks like you might be correct.

Gap and crap. $QQQ $SPY $DJI $IWM The stock gaps up sharply at the open (usually on positive news or momentum). It then “craps out” — the price fails to hold those gains, reverses hard, and sells off sharply (often crashing back down toward or below the prior close). The initial spike lures in buyers (FOMO), but selling pressure overwhelms them quickly, leading to a rapid drop. Often tied to overhyped or premature news — the market has already priced in the good news pre-market, so the open brings exhaustion and profit-taking.

As part of our commitment to advancing responsive space missions across the globe, Firefly is working with @Seagate_Space to explore sea-based launch capabilities for Alpha that open access to new orbits and inclinations. Read more here: seagatespace.com/apr-6-2026-fir…

JUST IN: Trump claims it’s “highly unlikely” that he extends his Tuesday night deadline for Iran again.

but they have rockets

@PhilipJohnston It's going to take a long time to grow into that valuation let alone 2T, IMO. If they pull off D2D *and* orbital data centers, then I can see a 2T valuation being more reasonable.

@Staudinger333 I personally wouldn’t sell below $10tr

Time for a 'told-you-so' post 😅 When I posted this 3 months ago, people said $800bn was crazy, and that it wasn't for data centers in space. Told ya!

@PhilipJohnston Would you agree that SpaceX is not worth 1.75-2T today?

was a bargain

$ASTS, $RKLB, $RDW, $PL, $LUNR, $FLY: Early futures: