The Control

Markets at their best give us useful information about the world That’s why fake outrage from those trying to control the narrative is booming

Vance and Newsom are now even for 2028 2026 YTD performance: Rubio: +144% OTHER: +20% Newsom: +3% AOC: -33% Vance: -41%

Is decentralized social dead? Absolutely not. And at 1confirmation we are putting our money where our mouth is. If you are someone bringing WINNER ENERGY to this problem reach out asap. It’s the best time ever to be pushing here. We will be your first user and investor. We all know big social networks have too much power. It is the right macro trend. We also know corpo VC slop encourages loser energy and to date we just haven’t had enough winner energy applied. Let’s go.

Today is day 21 of the Iran war and over 2000 people have died Peace markets on Polymarket indicate this will not be another endless war but it's not ending soon

Free markets for sports is a better UX and better prices for people. In a few years the idea that free markets for sports was not the default will feel absurd. MLB is the first major sports league to get it A better sportsbook is not why we are here of course. Better information and more truth for ALL facets of culture is the motivation. Sports is just one category, but it’s a big one

Be more curious Believe in something Have more kids asap Win and help others win alongside you

RT @NTmoney: Bullish on social media and crypto reducing violence in the world. We still have boomers in power projecting their tribal phy…

Gambling on war has ALWAYS been a spectator sport unfortunately. The politicians have been lying about it while profiting massively and making the lives of the people much worse. See the military industrial complex, which Eisenhower spoke about in 1961. Prediction markets just make it more inclusive and transparent and in doing so will reduce violence.

Our desires make us imitate and compete with others, but what we ultimately seek is recognition and approval from them

BTC and ETH are still relatively illiquid and one whale can move the short term price drastically. Looks like the $662B AUM hedge fund Jane Street is the whale. All you need to know about Jane Street is the founder personally recruited Sam Bankman Fried to join out of college.

Ethereum is human empowerment tech Savings and spending Privacy Exchange and lending More truth New business models for creatives This is why we win

Why stablecoins? The promise of crypto has always been to bank the unbanked. There’s billions of people who don’t have access to basic savings and spending products and blockchains can change that. We’ve been saying that for 15 years and haven’t come close to delivering on the promise yet. Crypto is still primarily just an investment vehicle for rich people. BTC and ETH are too new and volatile for billions to trust it for saving and spending. There’s a massive opportunity for mobile apps that are natively onchain and stablecoin first to finally deliver on the promise. Many great teams are starting to in South America, Middle East, South East Asia, Africa, etc but we are in the first inning 🚀

they say prediction markets are all sports the highest volume polymarkets give us useful info about elections, geopolitics and the economy

Interesting to see the reaction to CFTC Chairman Selig’s pro innovation and transparency message Lots of supporters But also a lot of loser energy from detractors who are on the side of paternalism and control and may not even know it

Polymarket web traffic is rising while Robinhood and Coinbase are declining. We need a polymarket for Polymarket flipping them in 2026.

Elites want chaos Tribal conflict causes chaos Stop getting sucked into the tribal narratives they project on us

The best advice ever received: be skeptical of good storytelling That doesn’t mean dismiss it But just know a good story is often a manipulation tactic by the most deceptive mfers on the planet

He lost his net worth to hackers Then built a crypto fund on conviction Now @1confirmation's @NTmoney backed @Polymarket in every round and sits on their board 🌟 His thesis: "The stronger the narrative, the further from the truth" Read @mattmedved's Luminaries profile ↓

This guy built a career telling young men to get a safe middle management job for $90K/yr salary and put it in CDs so that at 75 you can retire and enjoy life. Sports betting can be bad no doubt. But it also teaches people to take risk, learn and level up. The world needs more risk taking not less.

2025 was 1confirmation’s best yet. Started in 2017. There were thousands of crypto hedge funds. Still haven’t met anyone good at managing a long/short crypto book. We started one of the first crypto venture funds. Done things our way. Lots of ups and downs. In the past year we closed a new fund, started incubating a new company, and kept grinding for founders and LPs. More energized than ever to build and appreciate everyone bringing that same energy 🚀