ThriveSnap
134 posts
ThriveSnap
@ThriveSnap
Bulls, bears & bad jokes. Investing with caffeine and a pinch of luck. ⚠️ This is not financial advice, just entertainment.
가입일 Eylül 2024
77 팔로잉24 팔로워
4 brokers connected to @SignaTrading already
$IBKR and $HOOD coming soon
Any other requests?
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@ShardiB2 The next president doesn't need to have any standards.
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@aleabitoreddit With your post on $SIVE daily, I keep increasing my position as well.
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You cant spell Winner without Win.
Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain.
$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow.
If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space.
There’s a reason why:
-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial.
-> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE.
It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers.
At a ~$300M valuation.
And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop.
It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR.
As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures.
But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE).
Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space.
And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale.
It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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My portfolio right now. 🧐
$AXTI +7.52%
$IREN +4.50%
$OUST +3.7%
$UAMY +3.34%
$TE +2.9%
$ALMU +2.7%
$ONDS +2.40%
$KRKNF +2.08%
$NUAI +1.4%
$OSS +0.5%
Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Beware of a sloppy opening from the huge decline in the KOSPI led by the memory stocks.. Traders there have been raising money by selling U.S. stocks in the first hour of trading.
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The two largest photonics epiwafer fabs
- $IQE ( $LITE supplier) is up 62.53% this week
- Landmark is up 23.95% this week.
And they’re both on a tear.
Both are up 7-9% today so far.
Markets are probably pricing in the optical transceiver boom signaled from $AAOI earnings and Nvidia’s investment into Coherent and Lumentum.
Photonics is a new paradigm shift for AI for the foreseeable future and institutions are aggressively repositioning into upstream bottlenecks in the photonics supply chains.
Markets are typically forward looking, so if companies like $AAOI project $4.5B ARR a year from now, then AAOI along with the entire supply chain will start to get repriced in now.
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