Tyler Borg

Let’s do @TradingLucid giveaway. Comment the account you want to win 👇

This exact setup has happened before… and nobody is seeing it. I am dropping this video for you all to explain why I am not worried in the slightest about what comes next. I break down the #SP500, my positioning and the call hedge I’m building for a move back to 673. The probabilities are clear. There is a 70% probability that the #SP500 hits 673 by Tuesday. There is an 85% probability that the #SP500 hits 673 by Wednesday. I started the hedge and will continue building into it if we see 657 near the 200 DMA. But none of this matters if you don’t understand size. I’m managing close to $1M in capital and a $7k call or $20k put position is small relative to the full port. That’s what most people miss. This is one of the more important breakdowns I’ve put out in a while. Most of this stays inside the Discord but with a day like today, I wanted to share this one publicly. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

This is why you trade probabilities, not opinions. This is why I did not stay stuck on the 1 setup that got invalidated. We moved. on. We did good. Yesterday near 673, I said there was a 70% chance the #SP500 hits 662 by Thursday and an 85% chance by Friday. We’re getting that move right now. That’s how this works. Now the probabilities shift again. I’ve closed the March puts and I’m treating this next setup as a hedge against the May position. New levels.. There is now a 70% chance that the #SP500 hits 673 by Tuesday. There is a now 85% chance that the #SP500 hits 673 by Wednesday. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

@greenberg_don @TraderJonesy Big come backs ! bet you look even better !!

If you take nothing else from me, take this. No single trade idea should ever exceed 3–6% of your fund size. Start around 3%. If the level confirms, you can scale with another 2–3%. That’s how you build into a position. That’s how you stay in control. Anything beyond that and you’re risking too much. When I post short term probabilities on here, that is not my entire strategy. It’s one layer. Behind the scenes I’m running a main fund with 50 stocks that meet bullish weekly and monthly requirements. I’m running a quant fund that trades 15 names strictly off the 4 hour signal line requirements. My signal line is a mathematically based indicator that measures bullish or bearish accumulation. I’m holding larger April puts on $SPY, $QQQ, $TSLA and $NVDA for the bigger move. And then, on top of that, I’m trading short term probabilities. The short term trades are the smallest piece of the structure. They help build the larger positions. They don’t replace them. Those probabilities come from measurable intraday imbalances on the 1–5 minute timeframe. Price leaves inefficiencies. Price rebalances them. For the last three weeks we’ve traded that range back and forth on the #SP500 from 690s to 670s, 670s to 690s, back to 680’s back to the 690’s and now planning for the move back to the lower 680’s again and it’s worked because the process has been consistent. Not emotional. Mechanical. There WILL become a time the system LOSES. This is why I preach small size. If you’re trading a $5,000 account, you should be taking one, maybe two contracts at a time. 5 DTE. Delta around 0.35–0.40. Contract cost under $500. If you turn $500 into $1,000 three times in a row, you keep trading $500. You don’t suddenly jump to $2,000 because you feel invincible. Build house money. Protect capital. When you string together three or four wins, that cushion allows you to absorb the inevitable loss without damage. Because it will fail at some point. Every system does. The goal isn’t perfection. The goal is survival and consistency. If you’re trading $30,000 or more, then your size shouldn’t be concentrated in one idea. It should be diversified across stock holdings meeting bullish weekly/monthly requirements, a quant system, the larger dated macro options and then small short term probability trades layered on top. That’s what I teach. Most people miss the context. They see one post that fits their bias and ignore everything else that we are doing. I don’t trade with bias. I trade probabilities across multiple timeframes and structure my capital accordingly. Small size is not weakness. It’s discipline. And discipline is what keeps you in this game long enough to actually win. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

Closed out an 88% return of about $6,000. The probabilities are shifting. 671.5 is when I buy calls with small size to hedge the larger positions. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
 — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

I grabbed 5DTE's for $SPY there at 683. Let's just say, they will print when we are down near 670. There is a 70% chance that the #SP500 hits 670 by Friday. There is a 85% chance that the #SP500 hits 670 by Monday. This is not about the war. This is not about oil. This is not about Trump. This is about what institutions are doing. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket