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There's still along way ahead of us to maturity in the blockchain space. We are in a very critical and interesting R&D phase. But overall, the economy of blockchain is on the track and it is the future. #Blockchain #dApps
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Walid
532 posts
Walid
@WalidOfNow
Buidling blockchain stuff since 2017. Bringing prediction markets to every community @xodotmarket
Web3 가입일 Ocak 2012
1.1K 팔로잉569 팔로워
@0xNairolf The funny part is that someone on @xomarket has already launched a similar market and earned a creator fee. So the tool is there and @zachxbt could've done it!
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volume now sitting at $25 million
if zack launched a prediction market himself with 1% fees = $250k revenue
no memecoins, no long term commitments, no ongoing obligations, no reputation risk
few days then it is over
way cleaner than any other monetization model
nairolf@0xNairolf
would have been interesting if zach launched an opinion market on his investigation people bet on who gets exposed 1% fee goes to fund the research $1m volume = $10k for the creator way better than creator coins or other random things if you ask me
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How to win a Rolex in a testnet competition:
- Tap as more as you can
- Be smart and wait for ‘market’ sessions
- You have 1 week timeframe for this competition
- You need a code to play @Euphoria_fi
- It’s closed to 5000 testers so the odds are high
One of the app which most likely gonna pump the MegaETH trenches and volume.
Who wants to try it?
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The Tapathon is now live 🫵💥
For the next two weeks, 5,000 traders will compete head-to-head to climb the leaderboard in our first-ever Tap Trading competition.
Everyone starts with $1,000. Highest PnL wins.
A Rolex + cash prizes are on the line.
Details below 👇
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@Predictefy @opinionlabsxyz @Kalshi @Polymarket @0xProbable @predictdotfun @trylimitless @SX_Bet @MyriadMarkets @xomarket we can provide you with our dune data or graphql if you are interested
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@Predictefy @opinionlabsxyz @Kalshi @Polymarket @0xProbable @predictdotfun @trylimitless @SX_Bet @MyriadMarkets Surprised that @xomarket is not on the list, it has done 7m in the past week
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Top Prediction Markets by 7-Day Notional Volume.
7-Day Volume:
1. @Opinionlabsxyz – $1.8b
2. @Kalshi - $1.57b
3. @Polymarket - $1.44b
4. @0xProbable - $81.78m
5. @predictdotfun - $71.75m
6. @Trylimitless - $19.5m
7. @SX_Bet - $10.7m
8. @MyriadMarkets - $2.78m
9. @sportfun - $2.72m
10. @alphaarcade - $378k
Opinion and Kalshi lead as the prediction market space expands, with new platforms quickly starting to capture volume.
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@mansourtarek_ Would love to be there to talk about long tail prediction markets.
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We are hosting our first Prediction Market Conference in March 2026.
Researchers, economists, policymakers, traders will discuss big questions around prediction markets and knowledge aggregation.
Spots will be limited. Reply here with a topic if interested in joining.
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_
In 1945, Friedrich Hayek outlined the Knowledge Problem that any society faces: The central economic problem is not resource allocation - it is how to use knowledge that is dispersed among millions of individuals. He argues that information is fragmented, local, dynamic, and often hidden. He explains that no government or central planner can ever fully possess it, which makes them inefficient resource allocators. He proposes markets as the solution: knowledge is decentralized and prices are how society aggregates it. This idea is the intellectual foundation of modern prediction markets. Decades later, in 1988, the University of Iowa launched the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), which allowed small size trades on US elections and macro events. The results: even thin, low-capital markets outperformed polls. This was the first credible empirical proof that market prices are effective aggregators of public beliefs. A variety of corporate and policy experiments followed in the 2000s. Google, HP, and Microsoft all tried their own internal versions of prediction markets to forecast product launches and sales targets. DARPA built its own to forecast geopolitical events. The results were consistent: broad participation with monetary incentives led to accurate forecasts. Then, in 2015, Philip Tetlock published Superforecasting. The book, which is the culmination of decades of research into human judgment, shows that groups of curious and humble “forecasters” dramatically outperformed intelligence analysts and domain experts at forecasting. By showing that smart amateurs can outperform experts, Tetlock put into question authority figures and whether we should trust them for predictions about the future. Today, Kalshi is sitting on one of the largest repositories of high quality market data in the world. For the first time, public beliefs across a variety of domains - from economics, to politics and culture - are aggregated at scale through market prices and updated in real-time as new information arrives. Our data contains answers to open questions held about prediction markets - why they outperform traditional belief aggregation methods, how to detect shifts in collective sentiment, and which players drive market accuracy. This proprietary data has been closed to the public. We are launching @KalshiResearch to change that. We invite academics, researchers, economists, philosophers, and interested parties to work with us to study and uncover the fundamentals underpinning belief formation and prediction markets. Like Hayek proposed 80 years ago, prediction markets have the potential to improve society's collective decision making and resource allocation. The goal for Kalshi Research is to fulfill his vision.
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QuickSwap's first predictions market is live on XO Market 🦾
Will the dragon DEX reach $4.7M in TVL on @base by Christmas?
Place your bets.
XO Market@xomarket
🐉 @QuickswapDEX just created their first market on XO! The giant multi-chain DEX and DeFi hub that is live on @Base and their Base TVL has been steadily climbing since launch! Can they reach $4.7M by Dec 25, 2025? Place your conviction ❌⭕️ beta.xo.market/markets/quicks…
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@jeg6322 @predictdotfun Check out @xomarket :) a permissionless prediction market that actually works. People are actively creating markets and earning fees
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been seeing a lot of new prediction markets lately, so I took a quick look
2 on bnb yzilabs side, 3 on sol (predictfun, probable, factmach, wormwtf, space)
1. @predictdotfun (bnb, yzilabs)
> differentiator: positions can be used as a defi fund
> token airdrop: points design looks weak, opinion has fixed points with no inflation vs predictdotfun has inflation
> honestly the main selling point feels more like cz and yzilabs than the defi angle
> dingalings's last project boopdotfun had a meaningless airdrop, so curious how this one plays out
2. @0xProbable (bnb, yzilabs)
> no clear differentiator
> based on what’s public so far, no strong reason to use it
3. @factmach (sol, colosseum)
> differentiator: traditional prediction markets focus on objective facts, fm focuses on subjective opinions with a bettor voter structure
> token airdrop: points exist but details not public yet
> among recent prediction markets, this feels the most serious and interesting
> alpha starts tomorrow, 1000 users cap, I think I’m on the list
> raised 8m from tier 1 vcs, and the only one with a genuinely new product angle, pretty bullish
4. @wormdotwtf (sol, alliance)
> differentiator 1: anyone can create markets and earn rev share
> differentiator 2: leverage trading on specific markets
> token airdrop: no public info
> feels like a pumpfun style prediction market
> attractive for creators, but liquidity bootstrapping looks like the main challenge
> announced a 4.5m pre seed from solana ventures and alliance today
5. @intodotspace (sol, kalshi)
> differentiator: leverage, but still demo
> token: already did three community sales
> honestly have not seen three value up community sales in such a short time
> too many red flags around marketing and sale structure
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This is a big deal. Here’s why:
Polymarket and Kalshi are centralized in terms of curation and fees. The subjects of the markets get nothing.
We changed that at XO
@QuickswapDEX logged in using their Twitter account and launched their own market with a creator fee they earn on every trade!
Market creators finally own the upside.
XO is the future of prediction markets.
XO Market@xomarket
🐉 @QuickswapDEX just created their first market on XO! The giant multi-chain DEX and DeFi hub that is live on @Base and their Base TVL has been steadily climbing since launch! Can they reach $4.7M by Dec 25, 2025? Place your conviction ❌⭕️ beta.xo.market/markets/quicks…
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@VitalikButerin These markets are being created on @xomarket as I type this:)
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We need a good trustless onchain gas futures market.
(Like, a prediction market on the BASEFEE)
I've heard people ask: "today fees are low, but what about in 2 years? You say they'll stay low because of increasing gaslimit from BAL + ePBS + later ZK-EVM, but do I believe you?"
An onchain gas futures market would help solve this: people would get a clear signal of people's expectations of future gas fees, and would even be able to hedge against future gas prices, effectively prepaying for any specific quantity of gas in a specific time interval.
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Update on @celestia $TIA DA use:
Big increase this week. Wondering what's going on with @EclipseFND. Also, seems there's a new, anonymous DA user (orange) 🤔
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.@xomarket hits 150,000 TXs in just 3 weeks after launch!
What makes me bullish on them that the full $130k they generated in fees was fully distributed to market creators!
XO is a permissionless prediction market, so if you’ve got an idea, you can launch a market instantly & set your own 0–1% trading fee.
If you need an invitation code, comment below & i will DM you one.
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Prediction Markets on @base
That's it. That's the tweet.
Upshot@upshot_cards
Prediction Markets on @base That's it. That's the tweet.
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Rebalancing is a powerful feature for creators. And it aligns perfectly with XO's vision:
Conviction > Prediction
XO Market@xomarket
🚨 XO MARKET UPDATE 🚨 Major drop today: the Conviction Market engine just leveled up. Biggest highlight: Rebalancing is LIVE. Market creators are no longer locked into their original position. Adjust exposure, protect yourself, and trade smarter.
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TL; DR
I was one of the people laid off from @celestia today.
I’ve been in tech since 1996. I’ve worked at many places, and one thing I’ve learned is that it’s rare to find a team that really, really clicks. Celestia was that for me. Teams that ship and execute depend on soft skills, trust, and clear communication. We had that…
But … while I’m bummed, the silver lining is that we work in a small industry and I have a feeling I’ll cross paths with them again soon.
I’ve had a pretty diverse career: engineer, CTO, yoga teacher, owner of a video production company, and now I’ve been in DevRel for the past 3 years.
If you’re looking for a DevRel with a strong background in education and video, reach out. I’m in Buenos Aires for a few more days and can meet in person or hop on a call. My schedule is wide open:)
Over the past year, @viet_nguyen, @JoshCStein, @web3gb, and I delivered a hackathon, an online training course, and more.
Highlights below ->
Mustafa Al-Bassam@musalbas
Today, we let some talented people go. These decisions are never easy, and I want to start by thanking everyone who’s parting ways with us. You helped get Celestia to where it is today, and we would not be here without you. We will support you through the transition. As I shared recently, Celestia is stepping into a new role: to be the leading blockspace product for high-performance onchain markets. This next phase requires a different focus and, ultimately, a different team. We have a healthy treasury and are moving quickly, and the only way to keep that pace is to align around where we’re headed. There are many exciting developments underway, and I look forward to sharing more as they come together. To the team moving forward: let’s ship.
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