@KomissarWhipla It's reasonable to worry about it, but foolish to bet on it.
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Wizard_of_Armageddon
2.9K posts
Wizard_of_Armageddon
@Wizard_of_A
Der Rabe Ralf ruft schaurig: 'Kra! Das End ist da! Das End ist da!' --Cristian Morgenstern, Alle Galgenlieder(1908)
가입일 Temmuz 2020
74 팔로잉168 팔로워
Would not call it a "scam" per se, as it will drive those who believe there's a chance to be on the receiving end of the US strike package to invest in dispersal, hardening and eventually increased numbers of available delivery systems.
Pavel Podvig@russianforces
Is it correct to conclude from the war in Iran that this whole "damage limitation" business (if applied to nuclear) is a scam?
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@Mountain_Navy @USNIBooks Did High Tide 2nd Edition remove some of the rules for satellites? I'd really like to see how the Harpoon campaign handles these (and SIGINT). An older SITREP had some, but not a campaign.
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#Book Shelf 26-08 ~ Domain intelligence with At Sea Against the Soviet Fleet by Bryan H. Leese (@USNIBooks, 2025)
rockymountainnavy.com/2026/04/14/boo…
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@MatejRisko Iran still needs a large number of MANPADS, which will likely be allocated to the militia. If the militia had them, CSAR would have failed. Whatever, there is no evidence to support this whole story.
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@MatejRisko However, at this stage, there are no better options than MANPADS. The delivery and training of the HQ-9 are both difficult. Moreover, China has better manpad than the QW-1.
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Cos they were overconfident and operated within the effective ranges.Not great but IRI already has a ton of MANPDS (yes, even Chinese) and such risk can be rather easily minimised. It is a sort of “we want to look like we help but we don’t actually want to be too involved” matter
ProfTalmadge@ProfTalmadge
Not good. This is the type of weapon that downed the US F-15E last week. Trump-Xi summit gonna be awkward…
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I don't believe this article represents any theory of victory, nor is it an operational concept. At best, it's... well, fiction? Operational concepts need to be linked to specific platforms. The capabilities mentioned in this article lack corresponding equipment and op modes.
Kingston Reif@KingstonAReif
"Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age" warontherocks.com/2026/03/hellsc…
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No, I don't think the USV can move to Australia as casually as a counter on a map. This one map alone makes the whole wargame seem less serious.
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@Mountain_Navy I remember V1 hunt was a failure, and V1 shouldn't have been this effective, right?
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#Wargame SITREP 26-12 ~ Simple complexity with Fortress Europa (Avalon Hill Game Co., 1980)
rockymountainnavy.com/2026/04/04/war…
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@ArmsControlWonk Why don't you compare the firing rates of the US and Vietnam during the Operation Linebacker II of the Vietnam War? One side's firing rate was even zero! Tell me, what's the point of your comparison? McNamara would probably laugh at you.
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@ArmsControlWonk Furthermore, you're comparing two different countries. Their specific national circumstances, resulting in drastically different war strategies and military structures, are completely different.
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But you should also honestly admit that previous assumptions about descent and attrition might be incorrect. This is called credibility reasoning. As for operational effectiveness, it does prevent the use of closer bases, which limits the use of tactical aircraft.
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis@ArmsControlWonk
I suppose it depends on what purpose you believe Iran's ballistic missiles must serve. It does not appear that Iran's missiles are capable of either disrupting ongoing Israeli and US air campaign nor deterring further Israeli and US attack.
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Furthermore, I've never heard of comparing BM launch counts to sortie counts! There's no such standard in the world.
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Why not unleash your inner Lansdale and simply add the Vietnam War to the list? It also has what you called "worthwhile goals".
x.com/SpencerGuard/s…
John Spencer@SpencerGuard
Carl von Clausewitz reminds us that the political objective determines the scale and duration of effort. If both sides believe the objective is worth the cost, including time, the war will end when the will of one side breaks, not when observers think it should.
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We are living in a truly good era; even the Korean War can be used as a positive example of long-term operation.
John Spencer@SpencerGuard
War does not operate on social media timelines. Here are some limited objective wars/operations: - Korean War (1950–1953): 3 years (1,125 days) - Panama (Operation Just Cause, 1989–1990): 41 days - Bosnia (Deliberate Force + IFOR/SFOR, 1995–2004): 9 years of NATO involvement - Kosovo (Operation Allied Force, 1999): 78 days (KFOR 1999–present) - Libya (Operation Unified Protector, 2011): 7 months (220+ days) - Persian Gulf War (1990–1991): 38-day air campaign followed by a 4-day ground war (100 hours), after 5 months of buildup - Operation Earnest Will (1987–1988): 14 months escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz)
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@Mountain_Navy I once had a MechWar 2 that looked like it had been unearthed from an archaeological site.
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New arrivals. Boxes have seen better days but it’s the #wargame inside that counts, yes? Definitely “player’s copies” 🙃
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@MatejRisko I also read Alma. Is the data you used the total?
israel-alma.org/daily-report-t…
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The rate is dropping🤷🏼♂️
Aside that, from a technical standpoint the Sejjil is a fascinating missile. A unique, indigenous design, a solid propelled MRBM that is paradoxically partly based on a liquid Shahab/Scud family.
War Radar@War_Radar2
BREAKING: 🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israeli officials believe Iran launched just one missile at Tel Aviv this morning, possibly a new medium range ballistic variant or an advanced cluster-type warhead. Initial assessments suggest the missile may have split mid-air, releasing 3–4 large ~100kg submunitions that struck multiple locations across central Israel, signaling a potentially dangerous shift in attack tactics. Source: NY Post
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