Jay
689 posts
🚨 CTAs are sitting on the most extreme short equity position in 3 months and it's a coil ready to snap. > SPX CTA position: −0.35 (was +0.68 one month ago) > 0th percentile of 3M range · z-score −2.12 > $90.6B in forced selling still in pipeline > Every global equity index futures at 0–3rd pctile simultaneously: > SPX, NQ, Russell, MSCI World, DAX, Nikkei, Eurostoxx, FTSE > The stagflation trade is maxed out: > Cotton 98th pctile · Brent 95th · Diesel 94th · Wheat 92nd > Full curve short: 2Y, 10Y, 30Y all at 0–2nd pctile > All flipped from long → short in 30 days The mean-reversion coil is set. Any bullish catalyst, a signal from the Fed, a ceasefire, the Straight of Hormuz flowing again, triggers a violent CTA short-covering across equities, bonds, and commodities simultaneously. Analyzed by Radon radon.run
