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bookdepth

@bookdepth

adversely selected against in the marketplace of ideas

가입일 Nisan 2009
4.5K 팔로잉10.2K 팔로워
bookdepth
bookdepth@bookdepth·
It's like if lydia davis wrote about shitcoin trading. Just amazing really
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz

My net worth peaked at $1.2 million. None of it was real. I don't mean that philosophically. I mean it was located on servers that have since been turned off. I own eleven properties in the metaverse. Three in Decentraland. Four in The Sandbox. Two in Voxels. One in Otherside. And a beachfront villa in Horizon Worlds that I bought for $214,000 because Mark Zuckerberg called it "the next frontier." The frontier closed last week. It's a mobile app now. Last year I mass DM'd 340 people the phrase "you don't understand how early we are." I have since stopped doing that. Not because I was wrong. Because most of them blocked me. I got into metaverse real estate in November 2021. Everyone was buying. Someone paid $450,000 to be Snoop Dogg's neighbor. In a video game. With no legs. The avatars didn't have legs. I thought that was bullish. "The legs are coming," I told my Discord. "Legs are a roadmap item." Three hundred people reacted with rocket emojis. I called myself a "digital land baron." I put it in my Twitter bio. I put it in my LinkedIn headline. I said it on a podcast that had eleven listeners. Three of them were bots. The rest were my alts. My virtual property has more square footage than my actual apartment. My actual apartment has furniture. Location, location, location. My most valuable asset was a plot next to a virtual Gucci store. Gucci left in 2023. The store is still there. Nobody's in it. It's like a mall in Ohio but with worse graphics and no food court. I held. Diamond hands. That's what we said. "Diamond hands." It means refusing to sell while your investment loses 94% of its value. We turned financial paralysis into a personality trait. A guy in my Discord paid $2.4 million for a 618-parcel estate in Decentraland. Prime district. High foot traffic. I asked him what "foot traffic" meant when the platform had 38 daily active users. He said I didn't understand the technology. I didn't. I still bought more. We had a DAO. A decentralized autonomous organization. That means we voted on decisions. There were nine of us. Three never showed up. Two voted on everything without reading it. The other four were me and my alts. We voted to "acquire strategic parcels." The vote passed unanimously. I voted four times. My portfolio peaked at $1.2 million. I told everyone. I made a spreadsheet. I projected 40x returns by 2025. I made a pitch deck. The pitch deck had a slide that said "WE ARE BUILDING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY." The slide had a rocket emoji. That was my entire financial model. In 2023 I bought a Bored Ape for $189,000. It's worth $14,000 now. I don't talk about the Ape. I still use it as my profile picture. People ask me about it. I say "I'm long-term bullish." Long-term bullish means I can't sell it without crying in a Panera. My mom asked me what a Bored Ape was. I said "digital art on the blockchain." She asked why it cost more than her car. I said "you don't understand Web3." She said "I understand you live in a studio apartment." She's not in my Discord. Justin Bieber bought one for $1.3 million. It's worth about $90,000 now. I felt better about mine after I heard that. That's community. WAGMI. We're All Gonna Make It. We said that every day. In the group chat. While the floor dropped. While the volume dried up. While 95% of all NFT collections went to zero. We're all gonna make it. None of us made it. But we said it with conviction and a laser-eye profile picture. That counts for something. It doesn't. But we said it did. That's decentralized consensus. Meta spent $84 billion on the metaverse. I need to say that again. $84 billion. More than the GDP of Luxembourg. More than the GDP of Iceland, Luxembourg, and Malta combined. They spent it on a platform where the avatars had no legs, the graphics looked like a 2006 Wii game, and the peak user count was lower than the lunch rush at a Chipotle in Des Moines. They just pulled Horizon Worlds from VR headsets. It lives on as a mobile app. My beachfront villa is now a mobile app. Location, location, location. Zuckerberg renamed the entire company for this. Facebook became Meta. A $900 billion company changed its legal name because the CEO watched Ready Player One and said "I want that." Reality Labs lost $10 billion in 2021. $14 billion in 2022. $16 billion in 2023. $18 billion in 2024. $19 billion in 2025. That's not a strategy. That's a speedrun. They laid off 1,500 Reality Labs employees this year. Shut down three VR studios. Killed Supernatural. Put the entire VR social vision in a casket and said "we're pivoting to AI and wearables." The pivot took four years and $84 billion. I pivoted too. I'm an AI real estate investor now. I bought a virtual plot in an AI-generated world that doesn't exist yet. The founder said it was "the intersection of spatial computing and large language models." I don't know what that means. I gave him $40,000. He has a whitepaper. It's 47 pages. I read the title and the tokenomics section. The tokenomics section is a pie chart. I love pie charts. They make everything look like a plan. The project has a roadmap. Q1: "Build community." Q2: "Launch beta." Q3: "Scale ecosystem." Q4 is blank. Q4 is always blank. That's where the exit scam goes. My accountant asked me to value my metaverse portfolio for tax purposes. I said $1.2 million. He said "current market value." I said $6,400. He stared at me for eleven seconds. I know because I counted. He asked if I had any other investments. I showed him my NFTs. He stared for longer. I told him they were "cultural artifacts with long-term provenance." He asked if I'd considered a 401k. I told him a 401k was "legacy finance." He told me to leave his office. The metaverse is dead. I don't accept that. I am a digital land baron. I own eleven properties across four platforms. I have a beachfront villa in a mobile app, a plot next to an empty Gucci store, and a cartoon monkey that cost me more than my actual car. Location, location, location. The location is nowhere. But I'm early. I'm always early. That's the same as being wrong except you get to say it with confidence.

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bookdepth
bookdepth@bookdepth·
@tolstoybb God tier city, going to college there was the best
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Red
Red@redbuckman·
@bookdepth @ONAN_OUS I looked up CF this week to see if there was any room and found out the answer was no
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ONAN
ONAN@ONAN_OUS·
Here’s the big take on fertilizer shortage we should all be reading
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

BREAKING: While the world debates oil prices and war strategy, the actual crisis is unfolding in silence. The molecules that produce half the planet’s food are physically trapped behind a war zone. And the biological window to apply them closes in weeks. Not months. Weeks. This is not a drill. Roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz according to UNCTAD. Nearly 49% of globally traded urea is tied to conflict-exposed exporters. Nearly half of global sulfur trade, the chemical without which phosphate fertilizer cannot be processed anywhere on Earth, is Gulf-dependent. Transit has collapsed 97%. There is no alternative route. There is no strategic fertilizer reserve anywhere on Earth. There is no Plan B. Right now, as you read this: Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. Boro rice season, which produces over half the country’s grain, is underway with no domestic nitrogen supply. India is operating fertilizer plants at 60% capacity and has formally asked China for emergency urea. China said nothing and banned its own phosphate exports through August. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, faces $28 billion in debt repayments while the bread subsidy feeding 69 million people hemorrhages money at prices it never budgeted for. Sudan, already in confirmed famine, sources 54% of its fertilizer from the Gulf. WFP shipping now takes 25 extra days rerouting around the war zone. Australia imports virtually all its urea, two-thirds from the Gulf, and its entire heavy trucking fleet runs on AdBlue made from the same urea that is not arriving. No urea, no AdBlue, no freight, no groceries on shelves in Sydney. 318 million people were at crisis-level hunger BEFORE February 28. The number that should haunt every policymaker on Earth: the yield response to nitrogen is not linear. It is quadratic. In wealthy countries that over-apply fertilizer, a 15% reduction costs maybe 3% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already apply one-seventh the global average, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff where production does not decline. It collapses. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021. One season without synthetic fertilizer. Rice output collapsed 40%. Government fell. Now multiply Sri Lanka across thirty countries simultaneously. During a potential El Nino that Skymet says carries a 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. While 51% of US corn-growing areas are already in drought. While Australia’s root-zone soil moisture sits in the lowest 10% since 1911. While corn farmers are abandoning nitrogen-intensive planting because they cannot afford $900-per-ton ammonia against $4.50 corn. While the Fed is trapped at 3% core PCE with no room to cut and food inflation about to surge through every grocery aisle in America six months from now. Nobody is talking about this. CNBC leads with oil. Bloomberg leads with equities. The Pentagon leads with strike counts. But the actual weapon of mass destruction in this conflict is not a missile. It is a calendar. The Corn Belt needs nitrogen by mid-April. India needs to prep Kharif by May. Australia needs urea by June. Miss those windows and no subsequent intervention reverses the yield loss. The food is not decided by diplomats in six months. It is decided by soil chemistry in the next six weeks. The prices hit your table by Christmas. Both sides rejected ceasefire talks this week. The world spent fifty years preparing for an oil shock. It spent zero years preparing for a fertilizer shock. Half of humanity eats because of a single industrial process that runs on natural gas from the Persian Gulf, exits through 21 miles of water that are currently mined, uninsured, and unescorted. The planting window does not care about your geopolitics. It is closing. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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bookdepth
bookdepth@bookdepth·
@JohnP0st @bubbleboi I honestly couldn't say but have wondered the same myself. Maybe some degree of TACO optimism?
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John Post
John Post@JohnP0st·
@bookdepth @bubbleboi Have definitely seen basis spreads blow out by geography. But WTI Brent hasn’t been too exciting. Why does it still feel like WTI isn’t actually pricing what seems like the lurking reality that this will drag on for weeks/months?
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bookdepth
bookdepth@bookdepth·
@JohnP0st @bubbleboi Yeah, I think a few of the physical oil trading firms have gotten away with manipulating the Brent benchmark via calendar spreads. But even then there are still limits, you would see cross market spreads blow out
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John Post
John Post@JohnP0st·
@bookdepth @bubbleboi Fair.. just want to point out you can suppress oil prices without delivering or needing to bullspread out of your short
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Ryan Cummings
Ryan Cummings@weakinstrument·
1/N There's a lot of chatter about whether Treasury is selling oil futures to suppress prices. This tweet belongs in a museum (complimentary) because of how succinctly it states how stupid of an idea it would be. There's a lot in there, so let me unpack it from the beginning.
bookdepth@bookdepth

@bubbleboi Suppressing prices in CL would be an exceptionally dumb idea even by trump standards. If they roll, the front month will giga squeeze into the settlement window. And if they don't the market will stand for delivery and physical storage holders in Cushing will print

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Baby Steps Milestone Tracker
@bookdepth honestly nothing can prepare you for the sleep deprivation. you can read every book, talk to every parent, and still be completely blindsided by how relentless it is. the daycare cost on top of it is just cruel. congrats on the baby though, it does get better
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bookdepth
bookdepth@bookdepth·
@TheZvi I would not bet on multilateralism in today's political climate to get things done lol. It's honestly a miracle we closed the ozone hole
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bookdepth
bookdepth@bookdepth·
@fintwit_lurker Their whole bit of refusing to make a fucking sandwich is so annoying
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peepeepoopoo
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
BREAKING:
peepeepoopoo tweet media
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BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
Can you guys just tell me when I can buy Apollo? Those guys seems like absolute psychos, so I’d love to have them fighting just at the edge of legality and ethics for my money, it just seems deliberately confusing to figure out what’s going on Thanks
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