The Mediocre Trader
237 posts
@martypartymusic @benjamincowen Is this bear cycle now over Marty? If I look back at prior bear cycles (2022) BTC does break the bull market support band/bear market resistance band then continues in a down trend towards the bear cycle bottom.
The market is extremely bearish. Technically and fundamentally speaking right now, and things can get much worse. MicroStrategy is a ticking time bomb, stock market ready for drop etc. Smash likes and shares for a video update, on how I will trade this BEAR MARKET! 📉
Also send this one to your bullish friend.. $BTC x.com/chart_junkies/…
@CCPool_Daniel It's YouTube time 😎
🚨 Bitcoin – Endgame Phase 🚨 November Update $BTC: Wave 5 Complete, ABC Correction Underway The anticipated long term Bitcoin TA is here, and just like that, we nailed it again 🎯 Since 2023 we’ve followed the long term plan, heading toward a final blow off top. Base case was Fib 1.618 → 120–130k. Extension into 2.618/3.618 → 135–145k. We reached wave 5 at 126k and corrected almost 22%, piercing down through 99k. But was this it? The final blow off top? No, not yet. There are a few scenarios that can play out, but I firmly believe we’re nearing the end, just not at the retail euphoria stage yet. If you’ve followed me, you know the score. We called the big moves and the new ATH. If you value this, bookmark, retweet, like, and comment to keep this channel alive. Free alpha. No guarantees. Pure probabilities. Elliott Wave Theory Structure did what we expected: • Extended impulsive Wave 1 • Wave 3 tagged into the July ATH • Corrective Wave 4 unfolded in a clean ABC • Final sub wave of Wave 5 completed • Now forming a ABC correction on the weekly and daily. Seems like we might’ve found our A wave at 99k, but that’s not confirmed until the weekly close. Typically we’ll move up toward Wave B around 109k, 112k, and 116k. • On daily we’re trying to find a daily Wave C bottom. • From my June map, 109k had to flip to support, and it did. New ATH printed, followed by a 22% correction. Targets • Primary 120–130k (1.618) REACHED 🎯 • New targets (if weekly confirms) 109k, 112k, 116k. If we stay there and get rejected, high probability that was our blow off top. If we surpass it, we’ll have to readjust our EW count. Technical Indicators Weekly • Volume: volume up while price down is typically bullish. However, comparing April to now, volume down while price up is bearish. Short term we could see upside, but long term we’re nearing a squeeze. • RSI: below 50, weak for bulls. • Stoch: oversold, could move to the upside. • MACD: still above zero, but downside momentum is strong. Daily • RSI: below 50 but moving up. If it breaks through, that’s bullish. • Stoch: bullish cross moving up. • MACD: crossing below 0 is bearish, showing we’re in a downtrend but could make local highs. • Volume: volume up while price down is a bullish signal. Charting shows some bullish signs with a good probability of hitting EW targets. Invalidation comes if we break 116k, that would mean the downtrend is broken. Liquidity and Heatmaps Our liquidity heatmap shows strong liquidity at both lower and higher ranges, indicating a quick sweep to upper levels before a larger correction. This aligns with our TA that we’ll likely get a push before the big drop. You can use our liquidity and liquidation heatmap on my site (link in profile or comments). Conclusion My conclusion might sound repetitive if you’ve been following my long term TA, but it’s still playing out beautifully. Here’s a quote from last time: “We are getting ready for the last rally and a top in Q4 before year end. With stagflation and a slowing economy, the jobless data shows clear weakness. We are still in a great melt up, but it’s only a matter of time. Markets tend to crash 3–6 months before a recession becomes official. BTC follows traditional markets. Remember COVID: BTC fell 68% on lockdown fear without a formal recession. This is still the Wave 5 I mapped out in 2023. We got the ATH, held key support, and now line up for the last push. 120–130k stays the base case, 135–145k the extension, 170k is the euphoria outlier, only valid if sustained. After the move completes, remember what I’ve said since day one: Bitcoin corrects 70–90% in cycles. Not a new paradigm. Not ‘this time is different.’ Protect your capital. No one else will.” We saw a sharp drop due to a deleveraging event. Many were too bullish and lacked proper risk management. When markets get over-leveraged and overconfident, they get punished. We usually see these deleverage events before a small rally a dead cat bounce. If everything follows the plan, we could reach targets 109k, 112k, and 116k, making people believe we’re moving up again before the real drop. Now the important part: The FED will likely start QE. Typically, not always, assets go up to hedge against inflation and de-dollarization. But in 2009 when QE started, markets crashed during the recession. That scenario can happen again, so stay open minded and probabilistic. Don’t count on guarantees, that’s how people get liquidated. Manage your risk like a professional. We’re not here to look smart, we’re here to get paid.
$ETH has been my macro little bitch lately. I posted this video exactly 1 year ago. Shorted for the "unexpected" big dump last year when most called me crazy. Bought the bottom when everyone was gripped with fear. Sold the top when everyone was calling for $7k. Update soon
