Endre Nesset

how to trade football on polymarket smart great write up by Knight, the math is solid, but the real engine here is crowd psychology markets think linearly: traders see "70:00" and mentally bury the favorite but in the VAR era, "90 minutes" is dead. real matches go 100+ mins now buying a draw at 70' is basically buying time at a 30% discount execution alpha: you aren't just betting on a draw, you're buying a comeback option on volatility once it hits 1-1, the price doesn't just normalize - it skyrockets because the market instantly prices in the favorite's momentum swing safety checklist: liquidity is king: if the spread is >3¢, skip it. you'll lose your ev on the entry and exit no "eye test": trust raw xG only, your eyes will lie and mistake useless possession for real pressure exit discipline: sell immediately at 1-1, we're trading volatility, not the final whistle leave the heart attack risk to someone else