Brad Allen

@datadashboards Yeh they did a JV with SIG then bought 90% of MIAXdx, so RH/SIG effeively own 45% each Heard from folks who thought RH gave up waaaay too much to SIG. Customers much harder to find than liquidity! robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom…

@BradAllenNFL Not sure, I just assumed SIG would get a lot of benefits on the maker side whilst robinhood would keep taker fees but yeah some may still go to sig

Don’t think much of this is priced in for $HOOD Would be +$25M-$35M in fees a month atleast (assuming SIG takes no cut)

@roundrobin42 @datadashboards yeh I hear different by sports but was told around 30-40% of volume for CBB

@BradAllenNFL @datadashboards Think ~1/3 of volume is a good comp for handle x.com/roundrobin42/s…

Prediction markets are on pace to out-volume sportsbooks this March Madness. 3 days in, prediction markets have hit $787M notional (~$525M handle equiv.) - matching the full tournament forecast of $530M. Sportsbooks are only forecasted around $3.3B-$4B and most of the action is yet to come. Across PMs so far we have seen Notional Volumes of: @Kalshi: $638M @Polymarket: $149M

@2irl4u I got nothing against war markets personally, it's just a flimsy explanation "local people want this. Source: trust us bro"

@BradAllenNFL It’s almost like it’s a good approach

Love Polymarket trying to justify their war markets "we spoke to people there and they want these!"

DraftKings held 16% on NFL this year 😂

@mansourtarek_ Well said, Tarek. I run a small family shop competing with Game Point Capital and recently used “combos” to hedge a South Korean basketball regular season result + a Tajikistan table tennis first-to-5 prop a client left us exposed on. Love what you’re building - keep pushing.

@aakashgupta why would sharp customers be sportsbooks' most profitable customers lol

The framing here is actually underselling what happened. Kalshi alone did $871M on Sunday. That’s a single-day record, up 2,700% year over year. Last year’s entire Super Bowl volume on Kalshi was $27M. This year it was $871M in one day. The “10x Vegas” comparison is also misleading. Prediction market volume and sportsbook handle measure different things. Traders buy and sell positions multiple times during a game, so $871M in volume includes the same dollar cycling through multiple trades. Traditional sportsbooks took in $1.78B in actual wagers. The real story is what this did to DraftKings and FanDuel. Kalshi’s app was downloaded 3 million times in January. That’s 4x more than DraftKings or FanDuel have ever done in a single month. In August, Kalshi had one-third their downloads. Six months later it lapped them. DraftKings stock is down 60% from its all-time high. Flutter (FanDuel’s parent) is on an eight-week skid, the longest in 23 years. Wall Street earnings estimates for Flutter got cut 49% in three months. Both companies scrambled to launch their own prediction market apps in December. Combined downloads in January: under 100,000. Kalshi did 3 million. The structural advantage is simple. Kalshi operates in all 50 states through CFTC regulation. DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in 30. Sports now account for 90% of Kalshi’s volume, and the CFTC chair just announced he won’t block sports contracts. 10% of DraftKings users were already on Kalshi in January. That crossover is growing every month. And Kalshi doesn’t limit sharp bettors, which means the most profitable customers for sportsbooks have every reason to leave. Prediction markets are eating DraftKings and FanDuel alive while regulators hold the door open. And that gap is only getting wider.

Matchbook NFL Podcast Best Bets 🏈 @throwthedamball & @BradAllenNFL share their best Super Bowl LX Bets for tonight with host @DanielHussey2 🙌 insights.matchbook.com/betting-previe…

Final @TeamMatchbook pod of the season 🥲 Been a blast doing these with @throwthedamball and @DanielHussey2 this season Judah and I seeing the game fairly similarly 👀 youtube.com/watch?v=0w5BjQ…

@Tombrownlee I mean it depends entirely on your local shop no? my local lads/coral are kinda empty and soulless while the Fred is full of tramps and the hills is probably nicest

William Hill betting shops have long had an atmosphere that’s sterile, tense, and frankly uninviting—quite the opposite of Betfred’s jovial feel or Ladbrokes’ successful rebrand into a relaxed coffee-shop hangout. The staff often project a sense that they’d prefer customers weren’t there at all, which feels deeply embedded in the company’s culture, middle management, and training practices. Much of this seems to trace back to the mid-2010s, when aggressive concessions left them vulnerable. Recreational pub punters, savvy syndicates, and even mumsnet forum threads detailing exploits hammered their profits from every angle. The response? A pervasive suspicion toward nearly every customer, as though anyone placing a bet might be a criminal mastermind (despite money laundering being an absolute minority issue). In 2016, I was part of a large syndicate with a genuine edge on horse racing starting-price (SP) bets. We’d tour shops nationwide, pooling stakes on our individual selections before splitting any profits. Admittedly, we weren’t William Hill’s dream customer—and in their position, I wouldn’t want us either. But the treatment went beyond caution. One afternoon in a quiet, empty branch in Kidderminster, I started feeding £600 into the self-service machine—one £20 note at a time, because the technology isn’t designed for speed. The machine beeped and quizzed me with each insertion. In the middle of this, a loud shout came from the counter behind me: “You better not be arbing, mate!” I wasn’t arbing (though what we were doing was arguably much worse for their bottom line). However I was a bit stuck, as a recreational punter shouldn’t even know what arbing is. Playing innocent, I replied, “What’s arbing?” My poker face probably gave the game away. The manager stared critically, then declared: “If you don’t step away from that machine, I’m going to phone the police.” Even if it had been arbing, threatening the police over it felt wildly disproportionate—hardly a custodial offence. He disabled the machine, told me I was no longer welcome, and refused to let me check the payout on my placed bet slips. I argued that we’d entered contracts in good faith and they had no right to obstruct or delay settlement, but it fell on deaf ears. I had to retrieve the funds via customer services - although in reality I just cashed them out at a different shop weeks later. The whole episode left me feeling like a proper criminal, dwelling on it for days. Yes, we were an unwelcome type of punter, but a simple human exchange could’ve sufficed—rather than shop manager versus suspected criminal kingpin, with hard labour the apparent default for anyone suspected of winning consistently. To this day, William Hill operates with what feels like a “business to suspect” service model: win too much (or even appear capable of it) and the culture—forged in that defensive 2010s mindset—treats you accordingly. No thanks. I’ll stick to Ladbrokes for a coffee and perhaps pop into Betfred on the way home. 😏

NFL Championship round preview, including a surprising amount of Jarrett Stidham love... youtube.com/live/uj18ZUH-m…

*said no one who has ever bet nfl

*AFC

FINAL CALL

Bills @ Broncos gets underway shortly 👀🔥 @throwthedamball & @BradAllenNFL share their picks for the game with @DanielHussey2 👇 insights.matchbook.com/betting-previe…

Hoping the divisional round kicks off with a STINKER in Denver....

Wild Card Weekend 🏈 NFL Playoffs preview with @BradAllenNFL, @throwthedamball & host @DanielHussey2 chatting through all 6 games 👇 youtube.com/watch?v=1Bx5ja…