Eric Lo

@turingou The pursuit of excellence is usually a path of solitude but it is not one path but many.

字节的成功是带有强大的韧性的，一鸣是屈指可数真正贯彻了自己创建公司时的产品想法，并持续提升自己和团队，将公司当做产品来实现的创始人，这需要极大的耐心和毅力。这种理性的冷酷当然会失去一些东西，比如富有同情心的产品在无法实现正向 ROI 时被放弃的例子，但也正因为有韧性，相似的，不相似的产品想法会在不同的时代层出不穷，说到底，独立开发者在 AI 时代是有极大可能大放异彩的，在不需要组建复杂企业和组织的当下，最重要的品质，就只剩下韧性了。

@CommodMkt Argument - one can influence the oil future price but can't print oil. At this point, print oil = tapping into oil reserve. Reserve Availability+Stock Mkt Pressure ==> Peace Deal w Compromises

The abundance illusion. Carter admitted the scarcity. It was honest. It was politically fatal. Every Administration since drew the obvious lesson: never admit to scarcity. Talk the price down. Release the reserves. Call it abundance and hope the problem resolves itself. It has worked for the past 50 years. 839 institutional investors. Record two-thirds expect oil prices to fall further. Even retail: oil ETF shorts exceed longs for the first time ever. The template is working. It has always worked. Until the buffer runs out. SPR 415→349mb. Global stocks drawing 6mb/d. That’s not supply responding to price. That’s inventory responding to price. And inventory, unlike production, has a floor. You cannot destock your way to energy security. See my latest note carlyle.com/carlyle-compas…

@JChengWSJ @yuenyuenang From a mindset wise, it is no difference compared to Larry Page of Google going all in on AI instead of sitting still, letting its traditional business and profits being chipped away at accelerating rate.

The Economist: “At no time in modern history has a large country gone all in on investment in high-end technology while also navigating a slowing economy and a local government debt crisis, notes Yuen Yuen Ang of Johns Hopkins University.” @yuenyuenang economist.com/finance-and-ec…

@Bogachan_1971 Won't be surprised that eventually $MSTR will run into financial challenges and acquired by Blackrock BTC ETF as more physical bitcoins got concentrated under large ETF.

Michael Saylor's #Strategy had been buying at every level on the way up and down so far.... and Twitter slvts are pumping that to brainless crowds every time. I saw recently losses over $10 billion but still buying hundreds of millions of dollars. Unless Saylor has "magic money computers", this movie will end in tears... for the investors, not Saylor. He will most likely repeat what #Trump and his family did, pocketing half a billion dollars while investors lost a few billion. Here is the problem though... where does Saylor find the money to still buy $BTC? If you do your homework, you will find 2 banks underwriting this ponzi last few years. If you see Saylor ready to depart the country, short those banks.

@_Aria_2210 Y=25 ?

Only 1% can spot the pattern.. 99.999% will fail!!

@Jasonlu_hk I think the big ROI for Chinese residents in HK at a macro level will come down to 2 key things - #1 RMB internationalization (financial rail with hard assets), #2 CN companies going regional/international w HQ as RHQ. Multi decade big trend 😁

Totally agree. That's actually one of the most underrated benefits of HK status. A HK trading account gives you much easier access to US markets, often with lower fees and fewer restrictions than going through a mainland setup. And with HKD pegged to USD, you avoid the currency conversion hassle and the capital control headaches. For long-term US stock investors, this alone can make the whole HK PR journey worth it. Many people focus only on education or healthcare, but the financial flexibility is the part that quietly compounds over the years. That said, I'd still remind folks: the account is just a tool. The real ROI comes from a disciplined strategy and staying invested through the volatility. Appreciate you bringing this up 🙌

2007年我通过专才计划来到香港工作，2014年拿到PR，到现在已经在香港19年。 这19年里，我有一些比较真实的经历想分享出来。 首先是生活成本的问题。2010年我在深圳买房后就一直深港通勤，因为香港房价和租金确实偏高，PR并没有改变这一点。 其次是医疗方面。PR可以在公立医院享受较低费用，但看病经常需要排队，实际便利度和我之前预想的有差距。小病的时候，我有时还是会选择去深圳或者私立医院。 另外就是资产配置。拿到PR后，我一度觉得身份问题解决了，后来才发现真正影响生活质量的，还是持续的收入和资产管理能力。 接下来我会把这些年的一些真实经历和观察分享出来。如果你对香港PR和港漂生活感兴趣，欢迎关注。 #港漂 #香港PR #香港生活 #香港身份

@Dussyme 4

Only for mathematicians geniuses Can you solve it without using calculator..

@SamanthaLaDuc Gravity is real even folks thought their enthusiasm is the rocket fuel that can overwrite gravity and go to the moon 🌝

My call Monday for Korean stock pullback proved well-timed. The 3x long leveraged South Korea ETF, $KORU crashed -50% last week. No AI system called that. A human’s trader instincts did. And that made all the difference between protecting longs & chasing short for outsized gains.

@adamtaggart Let me share one Chinese phrase. When a person is shameless, the person is undefeatable 😁 This should explain it

HONEST QUESTION And NOT intended as a partisan one I would think, whatever a politician's policies are, if you were mayor of a city that under your watch suffered a catastrophic fire it was unprepared for -- that would be the definition of "failing at your job" In my mind, that's an absolute disqualification for another term -- if not legally, than at least based on common sense Again, ignoring Karen Bass' actual political positions, I just don't understand how she can not only be allowed to run for the same office again, but be the current apparent front-runner What am I missing here???

@GraphCall @KingKong9888 Over-promise. Under deliver.

I think you should "underestimate" the US economic team quite frankly. They should have done this: - Reduce Gov spending (which engineers a slow down but gives fiscal credibility) - That enables to lower the rates because the fiscal dominance crowd-out problem is addressed - Which in turns crashes the USD but it helps the terms of trade and helps the productive sector of the US - Have a methodic approach to reshoring and trade barriers - Avoid spending bubbles in AI which so far result as financial assets as the only exports. - Instead of DE-regulating banking so they can hide the losses in modifications past 12 months, reverse that. - and PE they should have cracked-down ASC-820 and "mark to model" and inject some sanity in this market. Instead they got caught in - starting a new war resulting in - and getting trapped in overheating with war embargo (that was the strategy of IRAN all along not a millitary one but a Financial one) - which results blowing up the base curve and hence your ABS Fintech is in teh funk, - which base curve also result in turns into blowing the Private Credit / Private Equity (those are very sensitive to base rate) - Which in turns blows up the debt funding part of your spending bubble and overheating AI sector. Too late. Those guys are economic morons.

Crashing the stock market this time won’t funnel USD liquidity back into the U.S. Treasury market. The Treasury market is far more complex today than in the past. Notably, Global South countries like China are no longer net buyers of U.S. Treasuries. I’m not underestimating Bessent, Warsh, or the rest of the Trump administration’s economic team. They have their hands firmly on the levers of the financial markets. They know exactly what I just laid out above.

@dengdry 人力便宜因此舒适度高. 便宜人力遇上了低生活成本,生活还可以. 希望未来五年,薪酬增幅可提高

我有个回国的朋友说：中国的生活舒适度已经超过德国了。 打车一公里一块，外卖配送费三块；几十块钱能让人跑腿几十公里；手机一点，便宜新鲜的蔬菜水果送到家；请阿姨打扫一天 200，空调坏了上门维修 150。 这些事放到德国，随便一次人工服务可能就是 100 欧。 听起来确实很爽。 但问题是：这到底是“生活水平高”，还是“人力太便宜”？ 我们享受的很多便利，本质上不是社会更富裕，而是大量人的时间和劳动被压得足够低价。 所以中国生活方便是真的，舒适也是真的。 但要想你是消费者还是劳动者

@steve_hanke In the great tide of capital flow, one either strives to move forward or being left behind, there is no standing still

#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s stock market was worth more than 2x Taiwan’s and 3.5x South Korea’s just 18 months ago. Today, FT reports that both Taiwan and South Korea have OVERTAKEN India. INDIA'S MISSED THE AI PARTY.

@kashyap286 Multipolar world + Geopolitical tension = Forking. Talents will move according to value system and preferences and optimized ROI

When the British empire died, the American empire seamlessly took over. The Suez crisis formalized the implicit transfer of the crown. Now, for the first time in history, we have a multi-polar world order alongside a globalized society and the free flow of information and money. The British sucked in the best talents from their colonies into the civil service. The US sucked in the best entrepreneurs from all over the world. Where will talent and capital move to next? We are living through a historic phase transition and have the capability to map it in real-time. Weekend food for thought.

@KingKong9888 Does that mean a CN fund manager who is a top performer can now relocate to HK to optimize the compensation package ? Currently China has put a cap on the compensation plan on the FSI industry.

HK aims to lure fund talent with bonus tax break
Law change to be submitted to Legco would sharpen edge over Singapore Hong Kong is set to attract top global fund managers to relocate to the city, as they will no longer need to pay salaries tax on performance-linked bonuses if they meet certain criteria under a proposed law change to be submitted to the Legislative Council, according to industry sources and academia. If passed, the measure would make Hong Kong the first major Asian financial centre to grant tax relief on such bonuses, reinforcing the city’s role as the world’s largest offshore wealth management centre, a source familiar with the proposal said. At present, Singapore’s general salaries tax can reach 24 per cent, the UK’s up to 45 per cent and the US’ up to 50 per cent, while profit tax in those markets ranges between 17 and 32.5 per cent. In Hong Kong, individuals face salaries tax capped at a standard rate of 15 per cent, while companies pay corporate profits tax at 16.5 per cent. Under the plan, fund staff would be exempt from salaries tax on performance fee income, while fund houses would not need to pay profit tax on such income. The measure would take effect retroactively from April 2025, according to a government paper presented to lawmakers earlier this year. The proposed tax incentive would give Hong Kong the lowest tax rate worldwide for managers of hedge funds, private equity funds and venture capital funds whose income was largely driven by performance fees, the source said. Many international firms had already sought advice from Hong Kong-based tax experts and accounting firms on expanding offices and relocating key staff to capture the benefits, the source added. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu recently said the bill would be submitted to the Legislative Council in the first half of the year. Yesterday, a bureau spokeswoman said the bill was expected to be submitted by the end of this month. The bill would also broaden tax exemptions to cover more products invested in by family offices and funds, including private credit, gold and other commodities, carbon credits, insurance-linked securities and certain digital assets. At present, only traditional investment products such as stocks and bonds qualify. “By expanding the range of eligible funds and qualifying investments under the preferential tax regimes, the proposed enhancements seek to attract more funds and family offices to set up and operate in Hong Kong, reinforcing the city’s position as a leading asset and wealth management hub,” the government paper said. The move would help the city retain its recently claimed title as the world’s top offshore wealth management centre, aligning its tax regime with Dubai, which imposed no salaries tax, said Wilson Chan Fung-cheung, an adjunct professor at City University and a banker for three decades. “The new tax regime would help Hong Kong to compete with Dubai for talent in the fund industry, while the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further tilt the balance in Hong Kong’s favour,” he said. The Hong Kong Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (HKVCA) yesterday expressed strong support for the proposed law changes. “The changes, which would bolster Hong Kong’s role as a leading asset management hub”
— STEPHANIE HUI, HKVCA CHAIRWOMAN “The new tax regime would help Hong Kong attract talent in the fund industry,” she said. Another source in the fund industry said that since many international fund managers were based in different markets, it was a matter of where they preferred to be tax residents. As such, the proposed tax cut could nudge them to relocate to Hong Kong. To qualify as Hong Kong tax residents, managers would need to live in the city at least 180 days in a year or more than 300 days across two consecutive years. This would increase demand for offices and housing, as well as education, while boosting consumer spending.

@kejimao 眼高手低. Rome is not built in one day but those who keep thinking about Rome will fall into the "are we there yet" trap and bring impulsive and impatient is never good for a marathon run

In November 1954, on the eve of India’s implementation of the Second Five-Year Plan, Nehru learned of the groundbreaking achievements of China’s First Five-Year Plan. Interestingly, his reaction was twofold: a genuine elation for the remarkable progress of a fellow Asian giant, as well as an acute sense of competitive urgency. “These Western countries have had 150 years or more of industrial growth…We are not going to have 100 years in order to make good,” he remarked. “Our problem, therefore, is essentially similar to those of other underdeveloped countries in Asia. It is for this reason that I was particularly interested in what was happening in China, and I said that the most exciting countries for me today were India and China.” Privately, Nehru also revealed his determination to prevail in this developmental contest with China: “We differ, of course, in our political and economic structure, yet the problems we face are essentilly the same. The future will show which country and which structure of Government yields greater results in every way.” thewire.in/world/jawaharl…

@DonDurrett For the faithfuls, this is the best of time to get more at lower price. For the speculators, this is the worst of time that things keep going the opposite direction which indirectly gets all of us closer to the bottom and coil the spring 😜😁😄

The dreaded 10% down day. Ouch. This gold/silver bull is being cruel to posers. If you are not a believer, today was painful. 🧐

@mitchpresnick This is along the 乡村包围城市playbook where new products will go to the less matured markets when their access to the mature mkt is bring blocked by policy or strong incumbency. Likely to see the same on home electronics and AI/Agentic service

If Indonesia can suddenly become BYD’s largest export market, imagine the implications when that dynamic is extrapolated across the Global South. This is why it is increasingly unwise to analyze Chinese industry through outdated assumptions about the centrality of the United States and OECD economies as export destinations. The next phase of growth for many Chinese manufacturers is likely to be driven more by Jakarta, Mumbai, São Paulo, Lagos, Johannesburg, and Riyadh than by New York, London, Tokyo or Berlin. The map of global demand is being redrawn—ironically, but not surprisingly, in part by the cumulative effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the expanding economic relationships associated with BRICS+. Many Western policymakers and analysts continue to evaluate China through a framework developed for a world that no longer exists. The consensus is updating, but the world is changing faster. The Owl View 🦉: The critical question is no longer how much China needs Western markets. Increasingly, the question is whether Western policymakers fully appreciate how important the rest of the world has become.

@KingKong9888 All these point to one near term possibility - Gold in Fed holding may get revalue to boost balance sheet standing and subsequently we may see $Gold price to rise further as market now sees revaluation as process to improve balance sheet

Lu Qiyuan: Can China Afford the Cost of Saving the Dollar? The U.S. dollar is on shaky ground, yet much of the world is looking to China for a rescue, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has effectively appealed for Beijing’s support. But economist Lu Qiyuan cuts through the rhetoric with a stark warning: saving the dollar could cost China its next three decades of development. Who wants China to prop up the dollar? Putin is one. European governments, long-standing trade partners, form another chorus. Wall Street’s financial elite are unsurprisingly vocal. Even within China, a cohort of senior officials and policy voices appears eager to provide a backstop. Conspicuously absent from the discussion is a single, critical question: At what cost? This is not a routine creditor-debtor transaction. It would require China to sacrifice the independence of the renminbi to serve as a de facto stabilizer for the dollar, effectively keeping the Chinese currency in the dollar’s shadow while assuming a portion of its enormous debt burden. 1. Inflated Realities and a Black Hole of Debt Many observers fail to grasp how far official U.S. inflation metrics have diverged from actual purchasing-power erosion. By real purchasing-power measures, American inflation figures would likely need to be at least doubled. Compounding the issue is America’s mountain of Treasury debt accumulated over three decades. Interest payments mask, but do not resolve the underlying principal shortfall. Today’s debt pressures represent merely the first drops of a gathering storm; the full force of the eventual adjustment still lies ahead. Rescuing the dollar would mean China absorbing a significant share of that shock. This is not emergency liquidity provision; it is volunteering to stand in the path of the lightning. 2. Historical Parallel: Crossing the Yangtze in 1949? Lu Qiyuan draws a chilling historical analogy. In 1949, much of the international community, including residual Nationalist forces, the United States, and the Soviet Union, urged the People’s Liberation Army not to cross the Yangtze River. The argument was pragmatic: the costs of total victory were too high; better to accept a divided China as a buffer. Yet Mao Zedong famously rejected such counsel with the words: “Pursue the remaining enemy with the courage that remains; do not imitate the King of Chu by seeking empty fame.” Had China heeded those calls for restraint, would a unified modern China even exist today? The parallel to the current moment is uncomfortably close. Once again, global voices urge China to keep the renminbi subordinated to the dollar; all under the banner of “preserving international financial stability.” In reality, this amounts to asking China to surrender monetary sovereignty to sustain a hegemonic system that has lost fiscal discipline. 3. Two Unacceptable Outcomes Lu Qiyuan’s cost-benefit analysis is uncompromising. China faces two potential paths, neither tolerable: ⭕️Option One: Delay its emergence as a developed economy by a decade. This would mean slamming the brakes on the modernization of 1.4 billion people, pushing back rural revitalization, technological breakthroughs, and improvements in living standards. ⭕️ Option Two: Replicate Japan’s “lost thirty years.” After the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan absorbed the cost of sustaining dollar stability, only to see its manufacturing prowess erode and its economy slide into a low-growth, low-desire trap. An entire generation’s prospects were sacrificed on the altar of financial accommodation. Neither outcome is one China can afford.

@Linahuaa Perspective matters. Some see resources as cost mitigation so it is a path of average down, some see resources as demand gen, rev growth, so it is net positive. CN needs fresh ideas to have vibe+ not involution+

My Singaporean interns are the most privileged in Shanghai. Chinese companies exploit the fuck out of Singaporean interns. They take a marketing intern and make them code 10h per day. No guidance. No relevant learnings. $450 salary per month. The kids are so burned out that they don't even want to go party anymore on weekends. My interns? They work 20 hours per week. $450 baseline salary, but if they attract their own customers (and I help them with that), they earn another $70 per hour after tax. I also teach them everything I know about life. I take them to fancy dinners. I go partying with them. I don't need interns at all actually. I just like to have fresh international blood to elevate the office vibes and to expose kids to more foreigners. My interns know exactly what their peers are doing and what they are doing. And they will never forget their internship with me.