Patricia Marins@pati_marins64
This is a clear sign that they are thinking of exiting the conflict very soon and are already adjusting the list of objectives to claim victory. However, this will be more complicated than it seems.
1. The destruction of Iran’s Air Force
Of the modern combat aircraft, such as the more than 20 MiG-29s and Yak-130s, only 6 have been destroyed or damaged with visual confirmation. Iran still operates between 14 and 18 of these aircraft.
2. The destruction of their navy
Once again, checking the list of destroyed or damaged equipment from Elmustek with visual confirmation, Iran still operates between 20 and 30 patrol vessels, 20 submarines, and more than 300 missile-equipped fast boats.
3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability
This is the only point that is really true. Iran is indeed launching fewer missiles and drones than in the first days. However, it maintains a sustainable rate of 80–100 launches per day for more than three weeks now.
4. The destruction of their factories
This point is only partially accurate. A large part of Iran’s assembly lines are underground. Rebuilding what was destroyed on the surface will cost money and time, but none of the underground factories have stopped production. Moreover, a good portion of the supplies continues to arrive from China via the railway that connects the two countries.
(I checked the Elmustek website and compared it with Iran’s pre-war inventory.)
