Kellan Grenier

SpaceX recently filed its confidential S-1. Almost nobody has seen it yet. So @AugmentMarkets reverse engineered it, and I used that for a full teardown. Here's what a $1.75 TRILLION IPO looks like when you break it down segment by segment, year by year, through 2032. 🧵👇

@TomBrady Context:

I would also like to announce I am not interested in a friendship with @TomBrady

@jonah_b @Polymarket @Kalshi ahem @Parcl & @Polymarket u up? x.com/Parcl/status/2…

A lot of the founders in my DMs pitched me a on prediction markets. I think most of them are chasing the wrong opportunity… Prediction markets are now among the most competitive categories on earth. @Polymarket and @Kalshi are raising mind-boggling numbers, and traditional players like @RobinhoodApp are building their own products. The category has incumbents with massive liquidity, strong brands, and aggressive product roadmaps. For the startups building net new prediction markets, it’s worth asking: what is the unique edge? Some pitch adding new market formats as their wedge. I don’t know if this is defensible. Every incumbent is actively expanding into new formats. Look at what @Polymarket offered just a year ago compared to today. They ship new products by the week. If the incumbents can add your market type faster than you can build distribution, the advantage evaporates. Others argue that better tech is the wedge. Tech doesn’t appear to be a limiter on @Polymarket or @Kalshi. The platforms work. Users aren’t leaving because of a tech problem. In my opinion, the more interesting opportunity is packaging prediction markets into entirely new products for underserved customers. People who would never open a @Polymarket account but have a real need to express a view on some future outcome. An outdoor concert venue might want to go long on rain for Sunday night to hedge cancellation risk. A logistics company might want to take a position on port delays. These are prediction market use cases dressed up as risk management tools, sold through channels the incumbents might not touch. And you don’t have to reinvent the wheel. You don’t need to build the market, source the liquidity, or design the matching engine. You can plug into existing prediction market APIs and focus entirely on distribution and product. There’s a fair pushback about platform risk here. But @Polymarket is onchain and open, which makes this meaningfully less risky than building on a closed platform. I’m not saying a new prediction market will never break through. In many mature categories someone always finds a way. @HyperliquidX broke into perps, one of the most competitive verticals in crypto with many well-capitalized competitors. AI gave @CoreWeave an opening in cloud. But in each case there was a specific structural reason the new entrant won. Disclosure: We are @Polymarket investors. Take the above with a grain of salt

@DaveNadig @RVanGrack @CFTC Write your Senator/Rep… Until then, the Law is clear.

@RVanGrack @CFTC Which would be fine if the CFTC was a staffed and functional regulator. Hasn’t been for a while now. Hard to have a commission with no commissioners. One person sitting alone in a room doesn’t make a commission.

If you’re debating how prediction markets are regulated by @CFTC, you’ve already conceded the point. By definition, that means these event contracts are swaps – and if they’re swaps, the CFTC’s jurisdiction is exclusive.

Insanity is a proper term here. x.com/adamkovac/stat…

Full root article axios.com/2026/04/14/rep…

One cannot reconcile the below report/statement with this chart without concluding that the chart is hugely mispriced.

@business Golly gee who'da thunk

Ironically, America’s competitive edge has increased due to the Iran conflict, as the price of natural gas has soared in the rest of the world but fallen in the US bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This is unironically probably the only thing that would get me to cover the short.

It's 1995. Maybe spring 1996. If you aren't locked in for the bubble to end all bubbles, you may as well just log off & go backpack in Costa Rica or whatever.

Brother (or sister), whoever you are, call me. You are NOT thinking big enough. HIT ME 📲📳

@nickdevor_ Simple solution: shouldn't have been such a prick as SEC chair. One reaps what one sows.

NEW: Gary Gensler didn’t mean for prediction markets to go this far. “I never once ever heard a member of Congress or their staffs suggest that the law they were writing, acting upon, and voting on was for our little agency, the CFTC, to have oversight over sports betting,” Gensler says. As CFTC chair under Obama, Gensler helped to pen the Dodd-Frank regulation that brought swaps under federal oversight. Prediction markets have relied on the intentionally broad definition of a “swap” to argue sports event contracts should be federally regulated. So, I asked him: Did he intend the definition of a swap to eventually encompass a contract that, for example, pays out if a basketball player scores more than 10 and a half points? “No,” Gensler says. He also takes issue with the idea that federal regulation should pre-empt state gaming law. “Nobody was intending to pre-empt the New Jersey state gaming commission,” he says. “It was politically not discussed, and if it had been, it would have been dead in Congress. Senators wouldn’t have voted for it.”

@adamkovac omg it's perfect hahahaha

This is insane

@NYSTaxDept .@jgebbia you ready for your greatest challenge yet?

Because why would the @NYSTaxDept website work ~30 hours before the filing deadline? It's not like the state isn't completely broke or something.

Honestly, market seems pretty fair on $VCX @ $100. A lot of embedded premium on the ex-Anthropic stuff, but give the weightings, it feels properly handicapped. If offered just Anthropic liquid at $2.5T, I’d prob bid decent size.

A $UAL $AAL deal, on the other hand, would be an absolute loogie in the face of the Federal Aviation Act & Airline Deregulation Act. May as well just nationalize them as a unified flag carrier at that point. MAGA PATRIOT AIRLINES or TRUMP SHUTTLE (redux) or the like.

I say this as someone who HATED this proposed deal as a JetBlue customer. But there was next to no merit to any of FTCs reasons to block that deal.

This antitrust mockery is the counterweight you get when competency-deficient ideologues like @linamkhan are emboldened to block genuinely necessary M&A like $JBLU x $SAVE as a power trip