knowledge0.eth
6.4K posts
@robbertleusink All the above built based on Dutch calvanist principles of modesty and hard work.
She has hard work but not modesty. Essentially she is American not Dutch culturally. We're seeing the fall of the American empire for that exact reason now. Lack of modesty.
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The Dutch Republic had the world's highest GDP per capita for 150 years
Built Europe's economic engine through systems and competence
Now Dutchmen rage when Jutta Leerdam, Olympic gold medalist, flies private
Success built the Netherlands
Resentment defines it today
When did socialists convince us that excellence deserves punishment?
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@PythiaR can still go to googledotcom, right?
if so then google ai since basic queries return llm results and aimode is hard to stop… blocking google was the one line our IT team would not cross, our workaround until they gave us enterprise ai licenses
if not then
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@knowledgezer00 Chrome is, have to use the Microsoft browser
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My employer (big 5 Canadian bank) will never ever use Google AI no matter how cheap or good it is, unless $MSFT offers it, because our entire tech stack runs on MSFT and we have huge security and regulatory burdens that we either don’t trust Google to deal with or they can’t.
Think it’s more complicated than just who has the best model.
tphuang@tphuang
Altman has superhuman ability in getting investor money, but reality is catching up. We are already at 40+% paid corporate AI subscription rate & its workplace usage has stopped growing for now. It's always been laughable to me that ppl think OpenAI can maintain firm lead over Google's deep pocket or that corporations would trust their private data w/ a creep like Sam Altman. Anthropic will be crushed too long term. They will be bought by some combo of MSFT, AMZN & NVDA. At end of the day, no matter how much money you think AI is providing for you, that does not mean OpenAI can charge you that much money. Not when Google is willing to undercut them or when you can get it for free from DeepSeek or Qwen. The App mkt that OpenAI had dominated w/ ChatGPT will face huge challenge over the coming yrs, not only from Google, but also ByteDance & Alibaba. SV may think really high of itself, but TikTok is more popular globally than Facebook and AliExpress/Temu are more popular than Amazon. The only reason to have any faith in OpenAI is its early mover advantage. But as we have seen w/ TikTok vs Facebook/Instagram, later comers can beat long time incumbent.
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normally these otm puts have less than 5% chance of paying out
the hit rate is much better than normal though and >5:1 r/r imo
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the tga refill alone is enough for a high hit rate, but coupled with a mismatch between sentiment, fundamentals and fwd surprise factors, there’s juice in this trade
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bought otm puts on eurusd futures
last time sentiment was this extreme the euro fell about 10% vs the usd
interest rate differentials imply similar
obba raised the debt ceiling, and the treasury now needs to refill the tga, providing the catalyst
knowledge0.eth@knowledgezer00
@Barchart bofa fund manager survey says the same big dollar catalyst coming soon too 80-90% hit rate iirc may pare or full sell my bounce names and play dxy/vol up over next month-ish tbd
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@Barchart bofa fund manager survey says the same
big dollar catalyst coming soon too
80-90% hit rate iirc
may pare or full sell my bounce names
and play dxy/vol up over next month-ish
tbd
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@geoljills @Empty_America a good example is millions of acres of public land that railroads improperly sold to loggers (got sued, settled for paltry amounts)
the loggers allowed public access for years, but recently closed access and started selling a limited amount of expensive permits to hunt/fish/camp
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@geoljills @Empty_America public land is more open than private
it’s not even close, you know that
and the difference is growing
trail closures are small relative to:
- # of new trails
- 100s of millions of open acres
- the vast amount of private land that was open, but is now closed
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The story of Animas peak in NM illustrates how easily access is lost without true public ownership.
Much of the NM bootheel was owed by the Grey Ranch, since the late 1800s. As was common in older times, the Grey Ranch informally allowed public access, they didn't "post." My dad climed Animas peak in the 1970s while under Grey ownership.
In 1990, the heirs (who never really restricted access) sold or donated the property to the Nature Conservancy for its permanent protection.
There were hopes that the property would be incorporated into the adjoining Coronado national forest, but in a very "unclear" process the entire 321K acres ended up incorporated into the new "Diamond A" ranch.
The Diamond A proceeded to aggressively prohibit public access, and seems to function largely as a hunting preserve for the super-rich who fly in.
The end result of this debacle is the loss of long-standing public access to one of the most interesting and remote peaks in New Mexico.
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instead it is a kickback to donors
they’re buying political favors
pristine land is being exchanged for campaign funds
no measurable consideration for the public who ultimately owns it
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if the federal government sells every single acre of public land this year, at the current market rate…
we will still have a budget deficit in ‘25, ‘26, and every year thereafter
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non-US large cap stocks go on to return close to 30% over the next year, going up >90% of the time
large US stocks also do well, going up 100% of time, by an average of ~40%
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yesterday non-US large cap stocks hit an unprecedented streak of 15 days in a row of positive returns
since that’s never happened before i looked at a cluster of their best 15 days of returns to see what a big streak might mean for returns over the next year
results were great
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ppl like to big brain themselves out of good decisions, don’t do tht with kids
it’s the point of life
don’t miss it cause you’re too smart
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what’s crazy is, when you ask them, invariably 95 out of 100 say it’s the best thing they’ve ever done
few opinions are more one sided
it’s hard, expensive, time consuming
and they wouldnt trade it for anything
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it’s hard for us to comprehend how we’ll feel or what we’ll do if x happens
we think we know
but we don’t
studies show this
the hack is asking people that know both sides of the coin
for example parents
they know what it’s like to be a parent, and what it’s like to not be
memetic_sisyphus@memeticsisyphus
It’s funny, people see the “in the trenches” posts from parents and think “God that sounds terrible I would never want that” but never piece together that 1) yes it’s bad 2) parents go through this first hand and decide not only was that worth it, but they want to do it again
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