Hamilton Matthews
13.9K posts


Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner will lead the U.S. negotiating team in Pakistan for Iran talks starting Saturday -White House









Chris Simms on Brandon Aiyuk: “He screwed them over multiple times. There’s really no other way to say it. He’s done that and because of that, they’re certainly not going to be in any rush, this isn’t one of your stories 'He’s been great to us. He’s been awesome. We’re going to try and work with him and make the player happy', no this is gonna be one where they go 'We actually don’t care about the player at all', and I could see this being one where they’re waiting into training camp and some team in the playoff conversation gets an injury or they look at their roster and be like 'We don’t have a guy, hey 49ers, here’s a 3rd or a 4th rounder for Brandon Aiyuk'.”




How will voters react to the prospect of AI-driven job losses? There's two parts to this question: (1) How will actual job displacement occur (2) How will people perceive it, separate from the reality The second turns out to be crucial because, as Stigler long ago pointed out, we see links between economic performance and voting that far out-strip actual aggregate changes in employment. That is, the changes in votes are larger than the changes in jobs directly---so it's not literally the people being displaced driving the political change, necessarily. It's everyone else too and their perceptions, concerns, values. Because of this, it's really hard to predict how things will play out. In an old paper we wrote, we found that people whose homes were foreclosed on during the subprime crisis didn't become politically activated--actually, they turned out less, and their areas didn't punish incumbents (but may eventually have become more Trumpy). Right now, politicians are starting to play with how to exploit the issue. It's not super clear yet whether/where they'll gain traction, and the extent to which they do will probably depend heavily on whether people start to perceive AI as having noticeable effects on the economy as a whole. @davidshor 's polling suggests these concerns are very much at play in the electorate today. In parallel to the excellent work @alexolegimas and @soumitrashukla9 and others are doing on the realities of job displacement, we'll need to do a lot more work to understand how these politics will play out. Some basic questions: --Will people's perceptions end up being driven more by the local conditions in their area or in their profession? Or more based on national, macro-economic forces? Or in the language of Alex and Soumitra's post, will it be the truckers who mobilize, or the consultants, or someone else? --Will there be a clear partisan split where one party is perceived as stronger on this issue? Right now there are politicians in both parties exploring how to frame it. The Dems should have a structural advantage as the party currently out of power, but that can change quickly. Important and fertile ground for political econ folks interested in the links between AI, the economy, and politics!








Sources: Jaelan Phillips has agreed to a 4-year, $120 million deal with the Carolina Panthers with $80M in guarantees.

As someone who has covered markets for years, I will say this. commodity traders, like equity traders (in the words of a smart bond trader I know) are "imbeciles." They trade off headlines, totally myopic in short-term thinking and predicting. They always screw up what's actually going down, never seeing around corners. It was the case in the run up to the 2008 where there was more than a few market "rallies" before the whole market blew up. This oil price spike has the same feel to it. It's not considering that within days we will 100% control the supply of oil coming out of the Straits of Hurmuz, or that Iran will be 100 decapitated as a military force and a financier of terror. There will be a peace dividend to all of that. Meanwhile buckle up as the Karens who control oil prices have their say, at least for now wsj.com/livecoverage/i…





The recent fight between Anthropic of the Department of War illustrates a deeper truth: AI is a weapon, and it might soon the most powerful weapon ever created. noahpinion.blog/p/if-ai-is-a-w…









