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Mr. Null
1.6K posts

Mr. Null
@mstr_null
Retired Black Hawk pilot 🇺🇸 → Now building businesses, creating art, and teaching kids to paint their futures. Veteran. Creator. Volunteer.
Texas, USA 가입일 Kasım 2015
3.3K 팔로잉1.2K 팔로워

@mcain1954 @rg81416 @RobertW36187468 @army_abn3rdTime @punisher0930 @GroundPound101 @Peters1TJ Likewise Shelly
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@mstr_null @rg81416 @RobertW36187468 @army_abn3rdTime @punisher0930 @GroundPound101 @Peters1TJ Good to see you.
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SundayBlessings BuddyChecks Matter Veterans 🫡🇺🇲🤎
#Turn22To0 #EndVeteranSuicide 💕💕💕💕
#PTSDWARRIORSTRONG #JustListen⭐️⚓️🐝🍈✈️🪂
➡️@rg81416⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@RobertW36187468⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@army_abn3rdTime⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@punisher0930⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@GroundPound101⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@Peters1tj⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@1776MKRB⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@GateWatchers⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@DonaldK63883315⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@mstr_null⭐️🚁🇺🇸
➡️@inthesilk⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@armyvet11c⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@ArmyGuy101st101⭐️🪂🇺🇲
➡️@Army1325air⭐️🪂🇺🇲
➡️@GusBiv⭐️🪂🇺🇲

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Mr. Null 리트윗함
Mr. Null 리트윗함

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

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Mr. Null 리트윗함
Mr. Null 리트윗함

RedFriday Veterans #BuddyChecksMatter ⭐️⚓️🍈✈️🪂🐝
#Turn22To0 #EndVeteranSuicide💕💕
#PTSDWarriorStrong #JustListen⭐️⚓️🍈✈️🪂
➡️@rg81416⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@RobertW36187468⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@army_abn3rdTime⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@punisher0930⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@GroundPound101⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@Peters1tj⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@1776MKRB⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@GateWatchers⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@DonaldK63883315⭐️🪂🇺🇸
➡️@mstr_null⭐️🚁🇺🇸
➡️@inthesilk⭐️🪂🇺🇸
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➡️@GusBiv⭐️🪂🇺🇲
➡️@Franco9270⭐️🪂🇺🇲

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@Not_the_Bee Only a few can manage constantly working, assertively, between multiple headspace’s and time.
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Former White House lawyer says female and minority pilots caused 66% of pilot-error crashes since 2000, despite being less than 10% of workforce 😬
notthebee.com/article/women-…
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Mr. Null 리트윗함
Mr. Null 리트윗함

Have you ever heard the Declaration of Independence read out loud?
You should. It’s the greatest break-up letter ever written.
At just 33 years old, Thomas Jefferson, with cold moral clarity, told the British government to pound sand:
“Whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends [life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness], it is the Right of the People to alter or to ABOLISH it.”
The power of that line isn’t just what it says. It’s how it’s said.
Jefferson wasn’t writing from a place of outrage. He was transmitting conviction — moral clarity delivered from a steady frame of mind.
It’s said Jefferson revised the Declaration of Independence with the help of Franklin and Adams dozens of times before it was finalized.
And that deliberate, cutting language paired with emotional steadiness is precisely why the words still land nearly 250 years later. 🧵
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