Mark Johnston
2.7K posts
@profutures2012
Futures trader with focus on CL, ZN, NG, NQ, ZS, HG
RUSSIA'S OIL OUTPUT DECLINES IN APRIL BY BETWEEN 300,000 BPD AND 400,000 BPD FROM AVERAGE LEVEL IN FIRST MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, ACCORDING TO FIVE SOURCES AND REUTERS CALCULATIONS
Naphtha Market Flash: Naphtha E/W collapses as Hormuz uncertainty paralyses eastern buyers -The naphtha E/W spread has dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the Iran war. May contract is currently trading below $45/mt, less than $10/mt higher than before the pre-war level. -1H June deliveries from Europe via Cape are now closed, with Asian players holding back purchasing decisions amid the ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. No buyer wants to commit to the last expensive cargo routed the long way around if the strait reopens in the coming days or weeks. This wait-and-see stance has effectively frozen eastern arb appetite. -For the first time since the war began, NWE is offering better economics than Asian markets for MED-origin naphtha. Layers that had been directing volumes eastward throughout the conflict are now finding NWE to be their best outlet. -Russian volume points to decrease also in the short term as Ukraine struck the Rosneft-operated Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the second time in less than a week. -Meanwhile, the two-week Iran war ceasefire expires on Tuesday 22 April, with a second round of Islamabad talks being set up. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed after Tehran reversed its brief reopening on April 18, citing the continued US naval blockade on Iranian ports. -The most likely scenario from here is a rebound toward current levels, with timespreads already ticking higher over the past few sessions. The naphtha deficit in Asian economies is structural at this point. Even if a deal is reached relatively soon, the need to attract product from the West will persist for months. By Jorge Molinero, Analyst. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #naphtha
The UAE arrested 27 suspects linked to an Iranian terror network planning attacks to destabilize the country, according to the Emirati State News Agency. @ariel_oseran
Just some observations on this. Iran’s president and foreign minister have no influence now on the negotiation process. Araghchi’s post last Friday about the Strait of Hormuz being “completely open” has put him officially in political exile. He’s no longer relevant. The only person remotely relevant today is Ghalibaf, Iranian’s Parliament speaker, but he does not have the power to sway the hardliners (IRGC). Strategically speaking, it’s in the IRGC’s interest to keep attacks at bay under the ruse of a “ceasefire” but maintain the status quo. Trump and his advisors know that so they cannot play the game. Everyday that goes by, the 11-13 million b/d production shut-in continues. Time is not on the US’s side. As @ProfessorPape said, there is an off ramp here but it involves limiting Israel. (Note: I recommend you read his work.) In essence, negotiating with the IRGC leads us to nowhere. Another extension of ceasefire will just be the status quo continuing.
When a trade suffers the kind of pullback oil has now seen, it's over. A trade is just a story. It needs excitement and momentum. That's out the window and has been replaced by people asking how low oil prices will fall once a peace agreement is reached... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-my…
$ONDS v $AVEX Maybe this is the next $NBIS v $IREN
Goldman Sachs warns curing patients is not a sustainable business model - Gilead's hepatitis C cure caused sales crash from $12.5 billion to under $4 billion when it actually worked - GSK sold off its entire gene therapy pipeline in 2018 - Pfizer abandoned every gene therapy program by 2025 - BioMarin pulled its hemophilia cure from the US market in Feb 2026 - Bluebird bio had three FDA approved cures and was worth $10 billion yet sold to private equity for $29 million in 2025
CRUDE OIL LOADINGS FROM SAUDI ARABIA’S YANBU PORT FELL 17% TO ABOUT 3.5 MLN BPD IN THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 13, SHIPPING DATA SHOWS
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices of the past 12 months and is now profiting off of the high prices by shipping its onshore supply to the rest of the world. So... uhm yeah. If this was "all about China," I guess it was "all about Making China Great Again." China has plenty of storage to weather a mutli-month disruption in crude exports. Someone should explain this to the US. Either the US is cool with a super painful recession (it clearly is not), or it will have to make a deal with Iran. At which point, China will re-fill its storage with again cheaper crude. Win-Win-Win, as Xi likes to say. "Oh but Marko, it won't have the $6-$9 discount on like 20% of its total imports anymore due to regime calibration in Venezuela and Iran." Yeah. Well done America. Way to solve that critical pillar of Chinese rise. 🤦♂️ (That last bit was sarcasm, if you did not catch it).
@AJENews Trump has told Fox News that the Iran deal will be signed “today” in Pakistan, adding on from an earlier interview with the New York Post in which he said Vance and the US delegation were on their way to Islamabad for the talks
