Sebastian Maass

@BobEUnlimited You post some of the best content out there, people who know macro and trade it know that

For now I will keep posting for the silent majority and remain hopeful for construction engagement here (still some folks for sure!) But I also recognize that most of the productive conversations will be off of here on the blog app and such, a sad fracturing of the town square.

Seen rising toxicity over the 3yrs I've been active, accelerating post election. Not just more trolls and politically motivated folks. Sad to see more large accounts focus on scoring points and ginning up mob attacks vs being collaborative & supportive (even with disagreement).

@BobEUnlimited Interestingly, it looks like BofA CC data is quite strong for August, substantially above consensus control group

Confidence or Cash Flows Soft data has rebounded sharply in recent months giving hope to many that the economy is rapidly accelerating. But with surveys increasingly unreliable, it's far better to focus on the hard data. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunlimi…

@BobEUnlimited @DonFSchneider It’s in high MPC categories and front loaded. But while the tariffs are not codified in the bill the bond market will count them as a fiscal offset, and they are material call it 300bn. So not quite as dramatic as +1% annual stimulus for 3 years

While it remains to be seen what bill will finally get passed, it looks like the US will be on an expansionary path for the next 18 months. h/t @DonFSchneider

@BobEUnlimited Why not bunds >> USTs?

PS - the consolidated portfolio looks roughly like: - 30% long-term US bonds (equal weighted between TIPS and nominals) - 30% long equities ex-US - 15% long gold - 30% short USD - 60% short US stocks (for roughly 10% target vol)

The US Wrecking Ball policy stance still has a long ways to go to before its reflected in asset markets. Moves so far mostly have mostly just reversed the euphoria around the election of the new admin. It'll take much larger moves to reflect today's policy reality. Thread.

@bennpeifert Flatiron Room

Shill me a Midtown bar

@BobEUnlimited What is this estimated FX impact? Just lagged YoY changes in JPY?

And most of that is coming from the lagged impact of previous exchange rate declines. The stabilization of the exchange rate relative to broad trade partners (remember the dollar has rallied vs. everyone), suggests that inflationary impulse will recede ahead.

If only looking at the growth side there would be little urgency to move rates higher. The only reason is concern over inflation which has picked up a tad in recent months.

@kofinas Why not just hire an interpreter and condense it for podcast

I've wanted to do an episode on Argentina with an Argentine economist for a long time. It's been surprisingly difficult to find someone with sufficiently good English skills. Putting out the bat signal here. Any good suggestions?

@BobEUnlimited How are you estimating the 'FX impact', what rule of thumb here .. thx

And what mediocre inflation that does exist is primarily driven by the FX impact on imported goods at this point.

The pressure on the JPY to decline further remains strong. While most DW countries are avoiding recession and still struggling with inflation, Japan has weak growth, soft inflation, and need for easy policy. Until that divergence reverses, the JPY trajectory wont change.

@Econ_Parker Now do NFP!

*US CONTINUING CLAIMS FELL TO 1,861K LAST WEEK; EST. 1,910K Odd... Continuing claims were a big miss, lower than all consensus economists. Good thing I'm not consensus and nailed it again with simple math. Details of the claims and challenger data in the 🧵 x.com/Econ_Parker/st…

@BobEUnlimited I think this is the same source as the GS data. BEA data comes from Fiserv. GS might be doing some subsetting/averaging

BEA credit card spend data is always a chopfest, but does suggest a peak around Aug 9 and softening in the last couple weeks. Mar was last time we saw similar dynamic. Note best to look at the changes here since its reported in odd terms (level relative to pre-covid trend).

With all these hits to the consumer (student loans, higher rates, softening employment), key question to keep an eye on is how demand is holding up. After a pretty soft August, small bounce back, but still pretty weak relative to the robustness earlier in '23.

@BobEUnlimited Deposit rates, cost of capital will have to rise in the industry compressing NIM

@srmaass What's the hit to the whole sectors profitability? Extra FDIC assessment? Theres plenty of capital already there: twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/…

Estimating the hit to the macro economy from the small banks problem requires understanding the importance of these banks are to the US credit system. Over the last year small banks provided roughly 2% of GDP credit, even if it falls to zero, it's a modest impact. Thread.

@BobEUnlimited What is a "special assessment on banks"?

The Fed / FDIC / Treasury took the most expansive approach they reasonably could have which should stop any run. Im sure closure of Signature Bank added to the urgency. Uninsured depositors were fully protected as I said was most likely from the start. home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

@calvinfroedge Can I sell my subscription rights to someone down the road? 😉

@jasonfurman Workers consider under WFH their productivity improves in an 'output per hour' sense (eg lines of code). A CEO however sees that the ability to pivot/innovate strategy is hampered when people only interact remotely. WFH is only good at maintaining existing well defined processes

So what is the difference between economic research and CEOs on this topic? Different assessments on productivity? Or on how much worker’s value it (as measured by how much of a pay cut they would be willing to take in exchange for it)?

The difference between economic research (which tends to be enthusiastic about work from home) and CEOs (who almost all hate it) is striking. One of them must be wrong—but which one and why?

@AnodyneCode Because?

@HayekAndKeynes It's clear COVID has been bad for cities globally, this article however surprised me ... wsj.com/articles/viole…

Why do New Yorkers keep publishing this shit? Stockholm syndrome? Rural America is the safest place in the country. Gang violence in poor southern cities (and some larger ones like New Orleans) does not bleed out into the countryside. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

The stock market had its best week in 16 months wsj.com/articles/globa…

"The concept of states of financial markets based on correlations has gained increasing attention...We [present] recent developments [and propose] the analysis of trajectories in correlation matrix space [and] attempts to analyze the clusters." arxiv.org/pdf/2107.05663…