Raghu R

266 posts

Raghu R

Raghu R

@stat_py

Toronto, Ontario 가입일 Nisan 2016
106 팔로잉67 팔로워
Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@Chellaney Poor Tulsi. She will delete that post now :)
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Dr. Brahma Chellaney
Dr. Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney·
Tulsi Gabbard had presciently warned that Trump would place his “own pride and personal political interests” above U.S. interests and wage war on Iran. Today, that very war leaves her in an uncomfortable position as Director of National Intelligence. x.com/TulsiGabbard/s…
Tulsi Gabbard 🌺@TulsiGabbard

Iran war is HIGHLY likely unless Trump swallows his pride & returns to the Iran nuclear agreement he tore up. But I fear he won’t put the interests of our country & those who’ll be killed in such a war ahead of his own pride & personal political interests. tulsi.to/prevent-war-wi…

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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@Chellaney Beyond those two tweets from the leaders, has anyone seen the text of the agreement? Until then it may be nothing more than just a tactical announcement signaling some conciliatory tone.
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Dr. Brahma Chellaney
Dr. Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney·
The U.S.–India trade deal looks more like a tactical truce than a strategic reconciliation. After Trump’s six-month trade war against India and a string of insults — including dismissing the Indian economy as “dead” — it is far from clear that this deal can revive battered bilateral ties. The euphoria in Indian stock markets has quickly faded. The terms of the deal remain murky, and Trump’s record of abruptly reversing course, scrapping agreements, or piling on new demands offers little reassurance. More fundamentally, once trust is damaged between two countries, it is not easily restored. India has learned the hard way the risks of dependence on the U.S.
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@salah_shoaib I believe he is an islamic scholar of sorts in Toronto where he teaches in one of the universities. Don't remember which one. He has a doctorate to his cred.
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Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury
Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury@salah_shoaib·
This imam says, "A Muslim man has the right to have 4 wives and an unlimited number of sex slaves. The slaves must give themselves to their Muslim masters. Sex slaves are non-Muslim women". This is where Washington now is pushing Bangladesh towards by supporting Islamists.
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@agurevich23 Hi Alex: Would you please post the kindle link? Since fonts in printed text are a challenge for me, Kindle online reader has been my go to whenever that option exists. I can zoom :) Right now I am getting this error page. Thanks so much
Raghu R tweet media
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Alex Gurevich
Alex Gurevich@agurevich23·
The Next Perfect Trade, second edition is live on Amazon! In this new edition, I review how the strategies and ideas from the original book have actually performed over the past decade. If you follow my work and find my content useful, I’m certain this update will add real value. The Kindle version is currently discounted to $1.99, and hard copies are available as we--they turned out really nice. geni.us/thenextperfect…
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@MinhazMerchant Sir: Thanks for your energy. You are among the few voices I can not miss. Given your readers are everywhere, Amazon should carry it in Canada & US as well.
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Bill Luby
Bill Luby@VIXandMore·
Long at $SPX 6796
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@arunpudur Good stats. Which currency was it measured in? If it was measured in nominal local currency of each nation, wouldn't currency devaluation has something to do with that export surge? Besides, I dont see any mention of which source gave you these stats.
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Arun Pudur
Arun Pudur@arunpudur·
US Tariffs vs Actual Trade 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 19% tariff → exports ↓11% 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 19% tariff → exports ↓30% 🇻🇳 Vietnam: 20% tariff → exports ↓7% 🇨🇳 China: 20% tariff → exports ↓19% 🇮🇳 India: 50% tariff → exports ↑22% Low tariffs don’t guarantee trade. Quality does.
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Maithili
Maithili@SuvarnBharat·
Kuch bhi bolo dhoka hua becharon ke saath...😂
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@arpit_bhayani Best wishes to you Arpit. It is Google's loss. Looking forward to see more of you online now. Cheers
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Arpit Bhayani
Arpit Bhayani@arpit_bhayani·
Yesterday was my last day at Google. It is not bittersweet, but a purely bitter moment. I had no plans of leaving, but I had no choice left. I had to leave because of a conflict with my outside work (courses and YouTube), and once legal gets involved, there is not much you can do. I am bummed about leaving a domain that I dearly love - in-memory databases. I am bummed because I was working with some exceptionally good engineers and genuinely good people. I am bummed because there was so much good stuff left to build. I will forever be grateful to Google for giving me two stints. Both were extremely fulfilling and something that made me a better engineer and operator. Rooting for Memorystore! This team would take a bullet for each other! Excited to focus my energy on what comes next.
Arpit Bhayani tweet media
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@Ksidiii If you bought those calls on inverse ETFs (and potentially while the IV was cheap), both vol explosion and market direction can help you. 5x return may works only if you are in short dated options.
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Kris Sidial🇺🇸
Kris Sidial🇺🇸@Ksidiii·
I think a lot of trading interview questions are silly, personally speaking (just my opinion). So my way of interviewing can be a bit different. One interview question I’ve asked junior traders in the past is the following: There have been several instances in my career where I purchased deep out of the money call options and made more than 5X the value as the broader market began to crash hard. Is that statement true, or am I lying? If it is true, how can this outcome occur despite the underlying spot price moving further away from the strike at a rapid rate.
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Paulo Macro
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro·
"The Architects of AI" Nice nod to Lunch Atop a Skyscraper... Iconic photo taken in... checks notes... 1932. PAGING @donnelly_brent YOU ARE NEEDED IN THE MAIN OFFICE IMMEDIATELY
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@biancoresearch @KobeissiLetter Thank you Jim: The first thing that popped in my head was: what if today's college graduation rates are what high school graduation rates were in the 80s. There is no magic to college degree when it is merely another form of disguised unemployment?
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment. The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis. This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for Americans aged 20–24 is up to 9.2%, the highest since May 2021. This rate has risen +2.2 points YoY, an increase not seen outside recessions. The US labor market is weakening across all education levels.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Lin
Lin@Speculator_io·
I’m building a tool to track the overall market, the current trend, and the leading sectors. There are a few spots for early access. It's free Just leave a comment or DM me.
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@boes_ Thanks. Anything to lower CPI & PCE helps in these tough times.
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Kishan
Kishan@Kishan_Telugu·
This is shocking behaviour @HDFC_Bank is this how you treat employees? You know what are the after effects of these meetings. Because of B!T©π€$ like her,visiting HDFC banks for any work has become very unpleasant,once they see statement literally beg for taking policies etc.
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George Robertson
George Robertson@BickerinBrattle·
stopped out long SPY July OTM puts did pretty good, will likely go back in as looking for SPY 595 peg. really nothing going on so it is 0TDE games now
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Shiv Aroor
Shiv Aroor@ShivAroor·
Going super-viral on Pakistani social media, apparently:
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@PeterBerezinBCA Would it be fair to say it is a case unity among all the left leaning voters?
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Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin@PeterBerezinBCA·
Something tells me that the Liberal party of Canada will want to thank Trump at least once.
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Raghu R
Raghu R@stat_py·
@biancoresearch A 5 point move drop in treasury futures is something I can not recollect. Simply amazing.
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Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch·
$TLT volume was a new record (it started trading in 2007). Besting its old record by 25%. $51 billion in assets
Jim Bianco tweet media
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

Today is a "tell your grandchildren I was there" day in the bond market. 10-year yield At its low today (which was technically last night) it was down 12.5 bps from Friday's close at 3.87% It finished the day up 19 bps from Friday's close at 4.18%. --- Instances when the 10-year was DOWN at least 12 bps intraday and closed HIGHER by at least 12 bps that same day. Intraday 10-year yield dataset starts on October 16, 1998 (almost 27 years). Only three times January 23, 2008 = The reaction to rogue trader Jerome Kerviel, losing Societe Generale 5 billion Euros. This was a big deal (witness the gyrations in the bond market) as it was taken to signal that the unfolding financial crisis would be a problem. Seven weeks later, Bear Stearns failed. November 9, 2016 = This was the day after Trump won election. The low was early the night before (election night). April 7, 2025 = today ---- There are too few examples to discern market direction (and 2008 was down and 2016 was up). Rather, it tells us the bond market thinks today was an extremely important day. How? for now, we can only speculate. I believe today we learned what a recession with high inflation (or stagflation) means. Stagflation recessions now yield 3.85% to 4.00% (10-year). That's it. When the recession is removed, stagflation becomes just inflation, and a 4% 10-year yield is way too low. Want to see yields lower than 3.85%? This requires the economy to sink so far that it kills inflation, turning stagflation into just a recession. At its worst this past week, no one thought the coming recession (if we have one, I have my doubts) would be this bad. So, the market is priced in a stagflation recession, and that is 3.85% to 4.00%. ---- Lastly, regarding the chart below ... The next Fed meeting is one month from today (May 7). Last night, at the opening of trading, fed fund futures were pricing an 85% probability they would cut rates at that meeting (15% for no move). It closed with just a 33% probability of a cut (67% of no move). Not only was a cut priced out today, but this kind of range in probabilities for a meeting a month away is unprecedented.

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