I am no Jedi
21.7K posts
Emirati Advisor Anwar Gargash: “Iran acts as if it is a superpower, even when it does not possess nuclear weapons. Imagine if it possessed those weapons!”
Everyone's focused on Iran's crude oil export/extraction disruptions. But there is another real domestic crisis: gasoline. Pre war, Iran was burning through 126 million liters of fuel per day while producing only ~110 million liters domestically. That 15-20M liter/day gap was being covered by imports costing ~$6 billion a year. 1/6 On March 7, strikes hit oil storage depots in Tehran and Alborz Province. ~30 tanks hit in southern Tehran alone. The immediate response: per-fill limits in Tehran cut from 30 liters to 20 liters overnight. Stations reported running dry. Citizens described it as "سهمیهبندی خاموش" or "silent rationing."
BREAKING • Phone contact between Araghchi and American officials has continued in recent days • In the past 24 hours, firm messages have been conveyed from Washington: the United States will not change its position, is not rushing into a deal, and will not compromise on the nuclear issue Three scenarios now being examined in Tehran: • Maintaining the current situation and waiting for a U.S. move • Conceding and reaching an agreement • Deliberate escalation: targeting Gulf states or moves in the Strait of Hormuz Shift in IRGC approach: • Until now, they assessed Trump was under pressure to reach a deal and could be leveraged • His tweets and conduct were interpreted as signs of weakness • A reassessment is now underway: understanding that Trump is not rushing and does not intend to concede Bottom line: Iran is being forced to recalibrate in the face of a far more rigid U.S. position than expected.
Iran wants to send oil to China by rail. It’s time to make that impossible.
