I am no Jedi

Emirati Advisor Anwar Gargash: “Iran acts as if it is a superpower, even when it does not possess nuclear weapons. Imagine if it possessed those weapons!”

Everyone's focused on Iran's crude oil export/extraction disruptions. But there is another real domestic crisis: gasoline. Pre war, Iran was burning through 126 million liters of fuel per day while producing only ~110 million liters domestically. That 15-20M liter/day gap was being covered by imports costing ~$6 billion a year. 1/6 On March 7, strikes hit oil storage depots in Tehran and Alborz Province. ~30 tanks hit in southern Tehran alone. The immediate response: per-fill limits in Tehran cut from 30 liters to 20 liters overnight. Stations reported running dry. Citizens described it as "سهمیه‌بندی خاموش" or "silent rationing."

BREAKING • Phone contact between Araghchi and American officials has continued in recent days • In the past 24 hours, firm messages have been conveyed from Washington: the United States will not change its position, is not rushing into a deal, and will not compromise on the nuclear issue Three scenarios now being examined in Tehran: • Maintaining the current situation and waiting for a U.S. move • Conceding and reaching an agreement • Deliberate escalation: targeting Gulf states or moves in the Strait of Hormuz Shift in IRGC approach: • Until now, they assessed Trump was under pressure to reach a deal and could be leveraged • His tweets and conduct were interpreted as signs of weakness • A reassessment is now underway: understanding that Trump is not rushing and does not intend to concede Bottom line: Iran is being forced to recalibrate in the face of a far more rigid U.S. position than expected.

Oil flares burned intensely in Iran’s Khuzestan on Sunday, sending heavy pollution into the sky, videos sent to Iran International show. The footage comes amid a reported US naval blockade and speculation that full oil storage is driving increased flaring to manage output.

Iran wants to send oil to China by rail. It’s time to make that impossible.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is now burning its own oil. Massive flares and thick black smoke over Khuzestan as blocked exports leave tanks full - they’re forced to torch the excess just to keep operating. Video: IranIntl

Iranian oil storage tanks at Jask terminal have reached maximum capacity. If the US naval blockade (imposed since April 13, 2026) continues, Iran will be forced to shut down oil production from its wells within days. This will cause permanent damage to its oil fields. Repairing the damage will take years and billions of dollars. Daily Losses: • Approximately $435 million per day. • Halt of ~1.5 million barrels of oil exports daily. Broader Impacts: • Near-total collapse of oil revenues (Iran’s main source of income). • Severe economic pressure that may push Iran toward negotiations or escalation. The blockade remains in effect until a “comprehensive deal,” according to Trump. The situation is critical — every day costs Iran a heavy price.