01yanick

@Seniorstrategen hm thanks, didnt realize that 30y are doing that well as Im trading shorter durations..

This might be a mad call but i am getting the feeling that yields might be topping out here

@TheShortBear Don't understand your logic, markets are not worried about war, markets are worried about oil. If status quo suits everybody its the worst possible outcome for the markets..

Some thoughts on Oil and War. - IRGC and Delegation for talks seem completely disconnected. The delegation seems to have a hard time discussing deal parameters through a real and realistic framework vs Fanatics that would rather be Martyrs. -> The talks are probably continually halted, restarted and alike as multiple groups are trying to negotiate in the background. But there might be a different thing at play here noone is reporting on. The unwritten dynamic: One of Irans main goals despite the incredible stake to them personally has been the halt of attacks in Lebanon. Why? Iran wants lasting peace and that is only doable if the incentivized wars stop in the region. The ceasefire is putting pressure on Israel more than anyone. The current status is stopping Netanyahu from attacking both Iran and Lebanon. The pressure by the courts is mountain and if war can't continue he will have to face his charges. The fronts big enough to sustain wartime politics (Iran, Lebanon, Gaza full-scale) are all under ceasefires. The fronts still open (Yemen, West Bank raids, Iraq) are too small or too routine to generate the crisis atmosphere that keeps the courts frozen. West Bank operations are so normalized they barely register as "war" domestically anymore. Think about the recent threats made against Egypt and more recently Turkey, the target list is short so options are being widened. These are not randomly timed threats. The USA is in an interesting position during all this. A ceasefire allows Iran to be closer to their aim of regional peace by the day as Israel remains frozen. The goodwill the US gets from the ceasefire and stopping Israel is big despite the headlines. If Israel attacks on their own it deteriorates US-Israel relationships. the US is profiting from the continuation of ambiguity, not from resolution. A clean deal reopens Hormuz, Iranian barrels flood back, oil drops, and the US refining/export arbitrage collapses and China gets oil again. Washington's incentive is to look like it's brokering peace while the blockade quietly persists or to have a full peace deal to spin as true victory. A lot of the negotiation is actually perhaps not frozen but actively developing as dynamics change in my mind. Think about incentives, not the headlines. Some questions I am asking myself in these times: Perhaps the risk of escalation is actually lower than perceived perhaps and escalation news can be faded in the oil markets? Why stocks are at all time highs, fully running on volume and conviction while the talks seem to be falling apart? If everyone's incentive is to maintain the ambiguous status quo (Iran gets peace, US gets oil premium, Netanyahu gets to delay but not escalate if enough to keep courts off of him), then is this actually a stable equilibrium rather than a fragile ceasefire?

@bootsiejones are they this weekend?

They’re much quieter now.

@GlobalMacroZen @thealepalombo There is nothing posh about Zug..

If you have kids Geneva is the perfect choice. Multicultural, close to the ski resorts & other activities, super efficient airport that you don't waste time for travel. Zug is posh but very boring; you want your kids to learn life. Zurich is fine but it's not as international as Geneva.

I've lived in Switzerland. I've incorporated there. I've walked the lakeside in Zug at 8pm wondering where everyone went. 250 millionaires a month are moving to Switzerland. Most end up in Zurich or Geneva. For many it works. But not for all. I asked friends living there, compared it with the data and assembled this guide. I came to the conclusion there are two approaches to Switzerland for most of us. A practical and unfiltered Swissmaxing thread 🇨🇭 🧵

@Dcpcooks thats what they say but it always surprises to the upside in these cases..

@01yanick Yes It will take a year to normalize oil production after it opens

GDP is gonna start to get revised lower Next months inflation print will be ugly Bonds are gonna be whacky

@ZeeContrarian1 Just really curious what would you expect them to do? Of course they are going to pump as much as they can, no need to announce that.. Worries are they are not able to do enough..

I expect to see a big announcement from the Gulf states that will push oil prices lower much faster than people imagine. They owe Trump big time.

@CRUDEOIL231 Man fed merely not cutting means rates are still a buy here. Do you think the fed is going to hike a lot into this? Ok, then write it that way. Also comparing just supply lost is not enough. If this is going to be long term thing sure we can go to 300. Not known yet.

It’s truly astounding how much of a delusion the rates desk folks are living in. I get it. Hope is a fine thing, and inertia is something that never fades easily. You guys were completely wrecked this quarter, and since you’ve been spouting nonsense like "nothing will happen," I understand your desperate scramble to hijack the next narrative. Yes, demand destruction is real. However that destruction is never linear. Supply and demand are never perfectly proportional to each other. It’s not as if one breaks and the other immediately recalibrates to settle into an equilibrium. They react by saying, "Rising oil prices? Won't that eventually dampen consumption and demand, leading to a recession?" and then they bet on falling rates or try to dump cyclicals. Consequently, on Friday some participants played out a scenario of pushing prices up, counting their chickens before they hatched by thinking, "High oil → economic burden → the Fed will get spooked and cut rates three times, right?" And those trapped in long duration have started blabbing with renewed hope. It’s a total comedy where reality and market expectations are completely out of sync. They aren't accounting for the lag at all. In contrast, the Fed will hold the line and won't cut rates until inflation is firmly under control and demand has completely broken. When the market starts getting too far ahead of itself, it creates a paradox that actually undermines the very conditions for a rate cut—yet they aren't even considering that. It’s pure cognitive dissonance. They compare this to 2022, but: 1) In 2022, the actual supply loss of crude was negligible, whereas now it exceeds 10mb/d; 2) Oil demand, in particular, has a very high share of inelastic demand; 3) Even if demand destruction follows, there is a lag of at least several months before finding an equilibrium. Please, wake up. It’s true that the fancy rhetoric of finance governing the real world has been very effective until now. However, this time, the aftershocks of the real world are transitioning into finance—do you still not see the difference? You will all regret this bitterly soon. You still don't realize how dangerous the idea is to skip over all the time-consuming processes just to front-run a distant future outcome. #oott $tlt

@NikLentz if you don't have an edge which is the case for most risk management doesnt matter.

There’s a lie in the industry that blowing up accounts is some rite of passage. It’s not. To blow up an account you have to compound reckless behavior. It should be hard to do if you have even a basic level of risk management...

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt No exactly as expected trump is very shit still would ve wouted for him without doubt.

sure now you are mad at Trump. Mad you voted for him. But if you could go back, would you have voted for Kamala?

@KISS_RHINO Whats that Rhino? I like it..

@acemoney21 hmmm..

@01yanick Like I said. Disbelief. Thank you for confirming!

x.com/wallstengine/s… Traders still in disbelief that the actual war itself is winding down. Doesn't mean that the damage is done. But as traders/PM's we need to consider the *rate of change* of the fighting itself. I believe that the RoC of the war is winding down. Now,

@NumanThabit by 50 cents?

oil is crashing!

@TicTocTick because of all the ground operation news coming every 10 minutes?

I think all the pieces for a peace 🕊️ deal are in motion now . Why is the market not believing it ?

@TicTocTick you mean fear is justified when you want to buy not when you want to sell? Makes sense heh.,.

Everyone is so scared rn but am thinking this is not even really a big sell off. Now if we were trading 5700-5800, some fear is justified. Not at 6700!!

@AuclairsDad of course we are his intended target with the amount of insider trading going on..

@acemoney21 hmmm..I guess considering there are sensible negotiations going on most of the outcomes are bullish..

@01yanick i have to assume they are discussing this in negotiations

I may be solo on this view But the overtaking of Kharg might actually be resolved as bullish We take control and command an uncertain variable there. Will remove a structural uncertainty component in crude markets ES may trade up on that