Zero Equilibrium

Zero Equilibrium Economic Community (ZEEC): Zero Equilibrium is a think-tank dedicated to the enlightenment of individuals, and spreading knowledge. The objective of this Economic Community is to improve economic thinking and synchronize seekers of knowledge and people of knowledge. We have a strong passion for education, so academic development and support is a big part of our objective, but we are no less dedicated to professional (academics or institutional research support and analysis). The community welcomes certified economists, enlightened and ordinary economic enthusiasts. A meeting point for discussing economic theory, and economic policy. Anyone is free to contribute to the discussion with relevant posts, comments and contents. And as anchor, I will be providing contents centered around core Macro theory: books, journals by renowned economists. We would also be discussing policy: notable local, and foreign macroeconomic indicators and developmens, as well a broad-based analysis on various segments of the financial markets: Fixed Income, Equity (Indexes), Commodities, Cryptocurrency. Core Contents and Tenets of ZEEC: Contents are divided into 6 with the 5th and add-on bonus that would later grow in prominence. 1. Macro/Micro Academia: Free flowing syllabus, with threads (and papers) on macro economic concepts, from different schools, even though this is a Post-Keynesian outfit. There would be explanatory comments and responses to questions and queries in order to boost understanding different schools of thought. [Monthly Spaces to have a chance for an interactive session on published content] 2. Applied Macroeconomics: Here we link economics to real life, analysing different spheres of the economy, sports, health, government policy, public sector efficiency, Industry,etc. Debates on Policy and Theories (and Markets): 3. Global/Local Macro: Economic Indicator Watch Analysis, Commentary, and Interpretations of trending policies, central bank, fiscal and trade policies. 4. Commodity Watch: Updated Analytical Research Papers. On a select group of commodity futures. Should be tailored for traders, or purchasers. 5. [Periodic] Financial Markets Analysis: a. Currency b. Bonds c. Stocks d. Index movements e. Crypto 6. Investment Education: a. Basics of Investing. b. Portfolio advisory. Rules of Engagement: 1. Contrarian ideas and against arguments are welcome, and anyone can respond to ZE posts, or articles on the blog, and anyone who wishes can write and send rlevenat articles to our email that we would the then post on the our blog. 2. Queries, questions and demands for clarification on any topic (theory, markets or policy) will be most welcome and responded to swiftly. Anyone with knowledge can also throw in theirs 3. The discussions around policy and national economic development WOULD be factual, objective, and without malice. Emotional arguments are not welcome. 4. There is no right and wrong just reason.

What The War Could Mean for China's Consumer Prices and Private Industry: For over a year, China has been in deflationary mode, as consumers grew less confident, due to a foundational problem - housing market crisis. This new energy inflation, if upheld could see China exit inflation, but the inflation would not be a demand-pull one, but a cost-push one. This creates a worry on how consumer demand would react, locally and globally, and how industry would survive giving that profitability fiw a lot of businesses is at a multi-year highs. The silver lining and hope here is that, China seems more prepared for an Oil shock of this magnitude than most OECD and Asian EM countries. China More Insulated: Per Bloomberg; “China is more insulated than many other economies from the oil spike after years of investment in renewables and efforts to secure stable supplies. Even so, a 10% on-year rise in oil would translate into an increase of about 0.4 percentage point in China’s producer price index, according to estimates by Gavekal Dragonomics and Yuekai Securities.” Sectors most exposed to the upheaval include oil extraction and processing, chemicals, fibers, plastic and rubber manufacturers — industries hit by US tariffs last year and now struggling with higher costs and export curbs imposed by the government after the war. – @bloomberg @economics However, the institute also noted that “a 20% increase in imported oil prices would reduce overall margins in manufacturing by up to a percentage point, according to Gavekal Dragonomics, after the profit rate for onshore-listed firms fell to 4.5% last year.” ZE Remarks: ZE analysts expect a more stable China than is being priced in today. This is as a combination of having huge strategic reserves and the level of alternative energy in the country. Not all firms will be hit as hard, and the failed business or bankruptcy rate would most likely be minimal, even as the country has seen the most unprofitable industrial firms in decades, and it's private sector profit margins down to 4>5%.(See Frame 2) The Yuan is expected to hold steady and outperform EM, Asian and BRICS peers. We expect an intensification of the ongoing fiscal policy expansionary policies to somewhat steady demand, such that there isn't a steep drop in price levels back into the negative (deflation) territory. Article on Reference 👇🏾 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Speaking on this @Nairametrics Space: What a 15.06% Inflation Means for Your Daily Life and Spending” Do join in 👇🏾 x.com/i/spaces/1Xxyg…

£746 million loan not investment. Numbers and terminologies are important in economics and finance. Also, no one was sad about his visit, I've said this numerous times on spaces, the president needs to be making such trips, what the uproar was abut was the fact that almost all State governors spent FAAC and Taxpayers money to go receive the president in a foreign country. This isn't “being sad” it's being mad at inefficiencies and insecurity leaks, cause its easier for a foreign enemy to take out the leadership outside the shires of the country, there's also the possibility of rouge officers plotting a coup in his absence (they've tried when he was around). These are the details you miss as a sycophant posing as an economist. You can't even get your numbers right. The £746 million loan arranged by Citibank is not an “Investment deal” but a low-interest loan facility, that is backed by the UK Government, (UK Export Finance [UKEF] guarantees the loan) making it cheaper for Nigeria to borrow. ON A CONDITION that a sizeable amount of component goods are sourced from the UK. In Lyman's language, the UK is guaranteeing a loan arranged by an international bank [Citi] that we would pay back..that's not a bad thing, the problem is you've gone and termed it FDI. (As an economic illiterate would.) The UK is not Investing in Nigeria, but making credit accessible at cheaper rates on the condition that at least 20% (or approximately £236m of the £746m) of the projects component goods must be sourced from the UK. The UK is essentially used it's high credit rating to arrange a deal that would invariably issue contracts to the British firms, with the cost of the loan borne by Nigeria barring the rare case that we default. You've gone to frame it as FDI when it is infact borrowing and capital importation and trade facilitation for UK companies. Are there benefits? Yes. The cheap loans in itself are beneficial. Is this an Investment by the UK in Nigeria? no. it is but an arrangement that lines up the UK's Treasury's purse (the companies pay tax afterall. The economy is only stable enough for loans, sunk capital is still not coming in sizeably. Last year FDI was Les than 5% of total capital importation. The more you tweet about economics the more you reveal that you know nothing about it.

The Keynesian revolution hadn't even happened yet. There were no Keynesians issuing a unified pre-1929 warning, Keynesianism emerged as a response to the crisis, it's not a pre-crisis predictive school. So, not a valid question. But this is what an Austrian(Hayek) was saying a day before the crash 👇🏾

Working on article that is aimed at appraising the formation of Regional Development Commissions and the Ministry of Regional Development. But first you can read what we'd written prior on August 29 2024. 👇🏾(There'd be a Space on this on April 1st. You can also drop your thoughts on the topic in the comments. Any information or reservations, and suggestions you may have. “Regional Development Cooperation under a Federalist Structure.” zeroequilibrium.com/2024/08/region…

Zero Equilibrium® Market Watch: Commodities and the Greenback Post Euro Open and Pre US Open. Gold, Silver and Copper under immense pressure, down -2.5% (Gold and Silver) and Copper down -1.467% as Iran claims it's energy facilities were hit, further intensifying the war, with little hopes for the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. WTI is up 0.57% and BRENT +2.89%, this has taken the spread high to just above $10. Meanwhile the USD has paired back some losses recorded in our earlier tweet, gaining against the Euro, Sterling, Yen, Swiss Franc Aussie Dollar and Canadian Dollar, as the DXY is up to 99.570 from 99.3 earlier.

@efearue Depends on how much. But I get it I don't envy you right about now. There's a lot of noise, but I also trust you have a healthy allocation to value and income plays. That's what I'd do, but e get as the money go reach I run enter your DM ma. 🤣

@0Equilibrium If client bring money wetin you go do?

NGL the whole thing has been scary.

High revenue ≠ Profit. You do yourself a lot of good checking financial statements before investing.

Alright, so here's ZE's take on the above as promised: A Balanced Growth: The NGX 30 trading ≤ % growth of entire NGX year-on-year, means large caps are not lagging meaningfully and and small/mid caps are not vividly outperforming. The NGX 30 is up+0.53% and the NGX ASI +0.54% The NGX 30 accounts for a minimum 70% of the entire NGX ASI, as the entire NGX 30 contains stocks like Zenith, MTN, Dangote Cement, and other Consumer giants. You can there for think of he NGX 30 companies as cover drivers if the index. While the rest (the remaining 30% of the index) as volatility amplifiers and sentiment indicators. So you have a situation where both the core and sentiments are driving growth of the NGX. Synchronized Growth and Real Value Pricing: So have a market driven by both Insitituional liquidity and retail liquidity. This makes for a synchronized and broad rally, with a lot of Institutional money (with staying power eg Pension Funds, and highly funded Asset Managers), or other high powered money, in addition to the increased access and participation of retail investors. It's not just retail moving the markets but insitiuitons as well, there's been a lot of large block trades shown in the volume of a lot of shares traded. Markets are now pricing in real value (or most of the markets), after the nominal pricing has taken place in the past 18 months. But not all assets are fairly it appropriately priced as I explain below. So there's more upside for quality stocks. More Upside for Quality Stocks: Because this happened in the first hour of trading or less, and held till close, it would suggest that there were a lot of pre-market and post-market orders, meeting much thinner supply (from more sellers holding or from an exponential rise in demand relative to supply). As a result price discovery might move towards still, for a number of stocks. Is a Bust Imminent? If there's a risk of a fall out, it is not today, however it does seem like a market that had moved from ‘hedge’ to ‘speculative’ financial postures. The three financial postures - a Minskian terminology - are; Hedge, Speculative, and Ponzi Financing ( you can also look at it as three phases of a bull-run) 1. Hedge: Smart money accumulation, and cautious valuation. 2. Speculative: Broader participation and Insitituional confirmation. 3. Ponzi: Here euphoria rules and sets asset pricing as markets enter positions based more on hope and past performance, than factual and verifiable logic/data. (At this point the more seasoned investors offload or pause for a correction, depending on their liquidity and investment philosophy). ZE Subjective Remarks: From the above, we draw that there are some stocks that are riding on liquidity-driven pricing, as we enter phase two of the bull cycle (broad participation and Insitituional confirmation - the [probable] reason the NGX 30 is closely up. Though the market may be at the second phase, some stocks are closer to the phase 1 (hedge), and some closer to phase 3 (Ponzi). Finding out which stocks are in either category of the phase 2 bull cycle becomes the million dollar question. (Please DYOR as the above is a subjective interpretation of data.) ✍🏾By @Muhammad_Okoye for Zero Equilibrium Market Watch.

NGX ASI is crosses N200k, less than one trading hour into today NGX 30 reaches an all-time high. What does that tell you about the NGX right now? Please share below 👇🏾 in comments. I would also share my answer by days end. It's already drafted just waiting for the market to close. (NGX 30= Largest and Most Liquid Companies on the Nigerian All Share Index)

Zero Equilibrium Market Watch: Oil Marginally Down, DXY under Pressure Gold Still Under Pressure as Bonds Rally. Commodities: #CrudenOil is experiencing a technical pullback on news of Iraq and Turkey reaching an agreement for an alternative oil shipping route. Gold is still under pressure at just below $5,000 mark. A Marginal Slide: Oil prices slide marginally on Iraqi Kurdistan authorities reach an agreement with Turkey to ship oil though it's Ceyhan Port. However, prices still remain elevated with the war still not showing signs of letting up. 1/4

Fixed Income: US ten year Treasuries (frame 1), UK Gilts (frame 2), Euro Bunds (frame 3) and Japanese Government Bonds (frame 4) are up Intraday pairing back loses seen within the year. Zero Equilibrium® Take: A Two Layered Market Reaction: On Oil: The market is short-term bearish, as traders act on the supply increase which can slightly ease current tightness, but operating on a structural bullish floor, keeping WTI above $90 and BRENT at or above $100. So prices are most likely going to revert back to the mean and stay at these levels pending a positive situation on the Straits of Hormuz situation, as supply coming in through Ceyhan is trivial relative to the Hormuz disruption. Ceyhan flows can only ease the marginal tightness, but is unable to offset systemic supply risk in Hormuz. The pullback is tactical, and the bull case remains geopolitical, until that changes not much change can be expected, barring an outright global recession. On Gold: The yellow metal may be stuck around these levels as markets await factors that could affect pricing and with institutional demand for Crypto climbing. USD: The greenback is expected to stay in the 98.50-102.5 range pending how long the war lasts. Crypto remains volatile, and extremely vulnerable to markets liquidity preference. We await the European Open to take stock of further developments in the commodities, crypto space. As well as fixed income and equity indexes. ✍🏾By @Muhammad_Okoye for Zero Equilibrium® Market Watch. 4/4

Currencies: USD Pullback The dollar index stays below the above 100 levels seen at last weeks close. The USD pulled back against major peers excluding CHF and CAD. And in emerging markets it is slightly flat against offshore Yuan (CNH) and marginally down against the South African Rand and Brazilian Real. (See Charts 1 and 2.👇🏾) Crypto: Bitcoin Rebounds Intraday Bitcoing is back up to $74k from a slide below $73k yesterday. Showing signs of a bullish run as the token (and others) pair back gigantic year-on-year losses. (Chart 3 👇🏾). 3/4

Is the NGX All Share Index Overvalued? : Zero Equilibrium® Macro-Based Analysis if the NGX a Minskian Perspective. Summary: • The NGX 30 growth closely tracking the broader NGX ASI on an intraday, monthly and annual basis (+0.53% vs +0.54%), shows a balanced growth in the index as large caps aren’t lagging while small/mid caps aren’t outperforming. • The NGX 30 provides the bulk of influence as it accounts for roughly 70% of the ASI, with Banking (30%), MTN (25%), Industrials (20%), Oil & Gas (7.5%), Consumer Goods (7.5%), and other stocks (10%). • The rally is powered by both institutional money (pension funds, asset managers) and retail participation, with visible large block trades confirming broad-based and synchronized market activity. • A Minsky moment would not be surprising as the market is likely in the Speculative phase, where core drivers rise with the rest of the market, but some stocks remain closer to Hedge or Ponzi phases, making the NGX 30 vs ASI divergence and small/mid-cap optimism early warning signals. • The market shows healthy expansion, at the moment, however that doesn't rule out the emergence of Speculative excesses. • Prudent investors positioning would likely favor liquid, value-oriented large caps. But investors would be wise to hedge with USD or gold-linked assets to manage Naira (and USD in the case of Gold) inflation risk. ✍🏾Read the full Article in link By @Muhammad_Okoye 👇🏾 “Is the NGX All Share Index Overvalued? : Zero Equilibrium® Analysis from a Minskian Perspective.” zeroequilibrium.com/2026/03/is-ngx…

@FinPlanKaluAja1 Fidelity is the only Bank there I would put more money into. Dangote sugar is still a buy in ZE opinion

Stockbrokers' recommendations for stocks Access Bank, Fidelity and UBA plc are all on consensus “buy” Dangote Sugar has a sell sentiment as per brokers What's your take?