masque

@Polymarket nasıl doğru kullanılır ve hangi varyasyonlarda? Bölüm 1. Siyah Kuğu Sigortası. Hisse senetleri, kripto ve aslında tüm ekonomik modeller, beklenmedik olaylar gerçekleştiğinde keskin çöküşler yaşama eğilimindedir: pandemiler, savaşlar, enerji krizleri ve diğer sistemsel şoklar. Herkes COVID dönemini hatırlıyordur, S&P 500 bir ay içinde %30’dan fazla düşmüştü. Kripto ise %50’den fazla değer kaybetmişti. Ve en bariz gerçek şu - çoğu yatırımcı buna asla hazır değildir. Sonuç olarak kişi iki kat darbe alır: varlıklar %30-50 düşer panik nedeniyle zararına satış yapılır dipten almak için elde nakit likidite kalmaz İşte Polymarket’in kısmen çözebileceği problem tam olarak budur. Çünkü bu sadece bir “bahis sitesi” değildir. Bu, kaosa karşı sigorta almanı sağlayan bir olasılık piyasasıdır. Örneğin son haftalarda potansiyel olarak tehlikeli bir virüs olan hantavirüs hakkında konuşmalar geçti. Önemli not: bu belirli bir piyasaya yönlendirme ya da pandemi tahmini değildir. Sadece mekanizmayı anlatan bir örnektir. Polymarket üzerinde şu piyasa vardır: “31 Aralık 2026’ya kadar hantavirüs pandemisi olacak mı?” “EVET” hissesi şu anda yaklaşık 7.3 cent seviyesinde işlem görüyor. Bu ne demek? Piyasa bu olaya yaklaşık %7 ihtimal veriyor. Ama eğer bu olay gerçekten gerçekleşirse, hisse fiyatı 1$ olur. Yani matematiksel olarak yaklaşık 14x bir katsayıdan bahsediyoruz. Basitçe: 1000$ yaklaşık 14.000$ olabilir, eğer senaryo gerçekleşirse. Ve asıl kritik fikir burada başlıyor. Çoğu insan bu piyasaları kumar olarak görür. Ben ise bunları sigorta kontratı olarak görüyorum. Yatırımcı, felaket senaryosunda tamamen silinmemek için sermayesinin küçük bir kısmını feda eder. Özünde “kâr umudu” satın almıyorsun. Sermaye yapının dayanıklılığını satın alıyorsun. Ve bu, ana pozisyonları çok daha sakin tutmanı sağlar. Bunu kişisel olarak nasıl kullanıyorum? Şu anda BTC’yi neredeyse her gün küçük miktarlarda almaya devam ediyorum. Aynı zamanda tek bir şeyi çok net biliyorum: piyasa kimseye borçlu değildir. Evet, BTC yükselmeye devam edebilir. Ama aynı zamanda 40.000$ seviyesini tekrar görmemiz de mümkündür. Buna ek olarak teminatlı kredi likiditesi kullanıyorum, yani bir likidasyon fiyatım var. Matematik şu şekilde: 1 BTC teminat karşılığında yaklaşık 30.000$ ek likidite alıyorum likidasyon bölgesi yaklaşık 40.000$ BTC seviyesinde Ve burada Polymarket tekrar bir koruma aracına dönüşüyor. Platformda şu piyasa var: “BTC bu ay hangi fiyata ulaşacak?” “BTC 40.000$” hissesi şu anda yaklaşık 0.3 cent. Bu da yaklaşık x333 katsayı anlamına geliyor. Ayın başında 0.5 cent civarındaydı, fakat zaman azaldıkça böyle bir senaryonun olasılığı düşer ve fiyat buna göre değişir. Bu da ilginç bir yapı oluşturuyor: Ayda yaklaşık 120–200$’ı sermaye sigortasına harcayabilirim. Bu, 1 BTC + 30.000$ kaldıraçlı pozisyonun yalnızca %0.11–%0.18’i. Ve ciddi bir çöküş durumunda bile plansız kalmıyorum. Bir yıl boyunca bu sigorta maliyeti toplamda %2’den az olur. Ama karşılığında en önemli şeyi kazanırım - istikrar. Pozisyonumu sakin şekilde tutabilirim. Potansiyel yükselişi kaçırmam. Ve bir sonraki siyah kuğu korkusuyla yaşamam. Çünkü finansal istikrarı “piyasa tahmin edenler” kurmaz. Onu kaosu diğerlerinden daha iyi hayatta kalanlar kurar. $POLY polymarket.com/?r=izimoney

@Polymarket also absolutely needs to introduce parlay betting across different events, because for many bettors this is a very important feature. In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons why people still stay on traditional sportsbooks instead of moving to Polymarket.

I demand the implementation of leverage technology for sports betting on @Polymarket. I understand that the challenge is probably not even technical, but more likely regulatory. But if this could actually be brought to life, it would become a historic moment. With its ability to trade events instead of simply betting on outcomes, Polymarket has already shot the old betting companies in the legs. For decades, they have been robbing players with unfair odds (especially in countries with state gambling monopolies), and the moment when they lose all their users has never been closer. There’s only one final blow left, and I believe $POLY will be the one to deliver it. @mustafap0ly what do you think about this?🫣

@Mapo0o @devjoshstevens @Polymarket @mustafap0ly Why?

@devjoshstevens @0_xMasque @Polymarket @mustafap0ly TWAP is such a horrible idea

🛑 BREAKING: POLYMARKET MANIPULATION 🛑 Someone very large is currently manipulating 5-minute markets on @Polymarket. I assume that because today is Sunday and most big players (funds and major market makers) are usually not active, there is low liquidity on exchanges. Because of that, someone very large is taking advantage of it and moving BTC price wherever they want. They are basically manipulating the market to farm 5-minute Polymarket markets. I have been observing this for about 2 hours. For example, the “up” position is trading at 65 cents even before the market opens, and when it opens, even while BTC is going down, the “up” position is still trading higher than the “down” position (EVEN THOUGH IT’S FALLING). They accumulate positions for a few minutes, and then BTC suddenly spikes upward. You might ask why I’m not following this and trying to “ride the whale.” Well, I tried, but every time the “outside liquidity” for this whale becomes too large, it screws me over and reverses the price in the other direction. It’s naive to think you can consistently profit on a manipulated market by following the manipulator—because the whole point of the manipulation is to farm small fish like me and you. On weekdays I never noticed this, I assume because other large players are active and it becomes too hard to manipulate BTC price. Take a look at screenshot #1. The market hasn’t even opened yet, but the “down” position is already trading at 66 cents. Now look at screenshot #2. There are about 1 minute and 22 seconds left until the market closes, and the price is going up, but at the same time the “down” position is more expensive than the “up” position. Look at screenshot #3. With 11 seconds left before the candle closes, BTC suddenly dumps sharply, and the Polymarket market closes with a win for the manipulator. His has happened repeatedly in different variations, but the fact remains: this is price manipulation of BTC to farm profits on the 5-minute prediction market. If you care about Polymarket, please share this post so the team notices it and conducts its own investigation into this matter. @shayne_coplan @mustafap0ly @williamlegate @devjoshstevens @digitdustin is this legal? $POLY

Oh my god, I’m seeing so many discussions about TWAP on @Polymarket. Just know that I started this (at least as far as I know, since I read a huge amount of Polymarket tweets). I used to trade the 5-minute markets a lot and put fairly large bets on them ($30-40 per trade), and I’ll genuinely be happy if these markets become fairer for retail traders. It’s frustrating when you carefully calculate multiple technical analysis factors - things you spent years of your life and countless sleepless nights studying - only for some asshole with hundreds of millions of dollars to come in and blatantly move BTC wherever he wants just to take your profits on Polymarket. I’m not saying the game should play itself for me. I’m saying the game should be fair. I’m not an expert qualified to decide what the best solution would be, but I’m glad the community and the team are working on this issue, and I’m confident it will be resolved as fairly as possible for all sides. $POLY

@devjoshstevens @SaeebM @Polymarket @mustafap0ly Bro, taking this opportunity, I wanted to ask you — wouldn’t you like to come up with leverage for sports betting? I think it’s worth thinking about. @devjoshstevens

@SaeebM @0_xMasque @Polymarket @mustafap0ly Roughly a few weeks

Actually, @Polymarket is cooking up such amazing things that I'm waiting token not only because of the airdrop, but also because I really want to hold $POLY all the way up to several hundred billion in market cap. That's exactly how it will be.

Over the past weekend, I posted my observation about manipulations tied to the 5-minute markets on @Polymarket Today @devjoshstevens replied to me and said the team is already working on a fix for this issue. My Twitter account is tiny- I don’t have a lot of views, followers, or anything like that. My post easily gets lost among millions of posts about Polymarket - but the team still sees everything and actually responds. Damn, it feels so good to support and help develop what I’m not afraid to call a truly great project. Forward only! $POLY

@devjoshstevens @Polymarket @mustafap0ly Thanks bro, it's really nice that you even noticed such a small account like mine - that says a lot 🙏

@0_xMasque @Polymarket @mustafap0ly We are working on TWAP solutions for crypto markets which fixed this - we have not decided if we have 1 TWAP market and 1 normal one to allow retail to enjoy the 5 minute last second resolving markets but know we are aware and working on a solution.

Crystal Palace I know you have the conference league final next week, but you have the chance to do something greater than winning any European football. If the players can pull off at least a draw they’ll be immortalised and idolised by millions of football fans which is greater than any trophy.

@williamlegate tweet claiming "the snapshot hasn’t been taken yet" is now unavailable. Could this be a hint that the snapshot has actually been done and we’ll see $POLY before the 2026 World Cup begins?

What if we dumped @Polymarket entire user database into a neural net and told it: "Digital God, distribute the rewards yourself. Take EVERYTHING into account." Fairness 2.0… or just the next level of centralization? Who’s voting for AI to be the final judge in prediction markets? $POLY #AI #Crypto @mustafap0ly what do you think?

@williamlegate snapshot henüz yapılmadı tweet'i artık erişilebilir değil.🫣 Bu, snapshot'un yapıldığına ve $POLY'yi 2026 Dünya Kupası başlamadan önce görebileceğimize dair bir ima olabilir mi?

@AnabellaMarvy Но также я не думаю, что Испания выйграет Чемпионат мира, их сборная невероятно талантливая, но я думаю что им не хватит опыта, чтобы выиграть ЧМ Аргентина дисциплинированая, опытная, невероятно работоспособная, а также у них есть Месси, думаю они заберут второй кубок подряд

@AnabellaMarvy Я не думаю, что Франция выйграет Чемпионат мира, потому что их сборная не сбалансированная, слишком много звёзд в атаке, что скажется на отработке в обороне и слабая полузащита.

There’s no way France or any other country can stop Spain’s midfield and attack. No country can handle them, Spain’s midfield can split open any defense with one pass.

@williamlegate @mikhailtoh @Polymarket

@mikhailtoh @Polymarket nice # of profile views, def a sign of an interesting trader

My first mention of @Polymarket was back in Oct/Nov '25 when I started getting active on X. Since then, over 200 people have checked out my profile. Back then, everyone was grabbing their badges and ecosystem badges. It’s been a solid journey so far. I really vibe with how the team makes decisions and adapts to what's happening in the world. They know how to pivot. ✌🏻 I have a feeling we’re going to be very, very happy and satisfied. Poly superszn is coming. 👀