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Aaron
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Aaron
@0xAaronGu
Dig Needs → Hunt Resources+Tools → Deliver Solutions
Tokyo, Japan Katılım Mayıs 2017
438 Takip Edilen349 Takipçiler
我把这套交易系统跑了很久，核心结论是：赚钱靠概率，活下来靠风控，稳定靠执行。
我是实战交易者，也是 Hermes 爱好者，这里公开我的完整框架，拿去就能用。
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交易前只做3件事
- 标的池固定：BTC/ETH/SOL 这类高流动性，不临时加币
- 时段固定：每天2个扫描窗口，避免全天盯盘导致冲动交易
- 环境过滤：波动过低不做，波动过高减仓，不在噪音区硬开单
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入场条件必须同时满足
- 大周期有方向（如4H趋势明确）
- 小周期有触发（如1H/30m突破或回踩确认）
- 风险回报比达标（至少 1:1.5）
少一条都不做看不懂 = 不交易。
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仓位不是拍脑袋，是反推
- 先定单笔最大亏损：账户权益的 2%-3%
- 再算止损距离（ATR或结构位）
- 最后反推仓位：仓位 = 可承受亏损 / 止损百分比
这样即使连续错几笔，账户曲线也不会崩。
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我的硬风控规则
- 日内开仓上限：3笔
- 连续亏损2笔：当天降频或停手
- 日内回撤到阈值：停止新开仓，只做复盘
- 禁止情绪反手，禁止无计划加仓纪律比方向更值钱。
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出场规则
- 入场时同步写好止损和分批止盈
- 不用"扛一扛"这种主观操作
- 达到预设条件自动减仓或平仓
交易是执行系统，不是临场表演。
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Hermes 在流程里的作用
- 定时拉行情/持仓/资金状态
- 按规则给出"做/不做"
- 自动记录每笔交易：入场理由、仓位、止损、结果
我追求的不是神单，而是减少人为失误，让每笔单都可复盘、可迭代。
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给你们分享一个可直接落地的7天训练法
- D1-D2：只做信号筛选，不下单
- D3-D4：每次只开1笔，严格按风险反推仓位
- D5-D6：加入分批止盈与复盘模板
- D7：统计胜率、盈亏比、最大回撤，删掉无效动作
先把执行稳定下来，再谈收益放大。
我后续会持续公开：实盘复盘、风控参数迭代、Hermes 自动化工作流。
少喊单，多方法，少情绪，多系统。
#Crypto #交易系统 #风控 #Hermes #BTC #ETH
中文
再谈交易： $rave 亏了36000刀，如果我是庄，我该怎么做？
很多群友都说，这币高控，庄怎么画线都随意，拉到4砸到0.1都可能。
是真的这样，还是你的臆测，还是所谓的我感觉？
首先：之前很多投资都是线性释放的，谈高控按照流通筹码来看，肯定没有 $siren 高控。
造成现在看起来高控的原因是，现货没有还手。
其次：目前市值2B，即使高控维持当前市值花费的价格是很不一样的，如果0.3开始30w万就能维持，现在可能需要百万级别，不知道庄是否资金压力。
因此，高控这个事存在线性压力。
但是从数据来看，我这单会很艰难，我很难下决心去平仓止损，还是扛着。
币安做多20做空80
Ok 做多21.2 做空78
By 做多23.5 做空76
也就是庄可以拉爆空单，收割所有是最简单的选择。
到了2.8以上基本空单能死完，但是庄没有一鼓作气。
可能是风控的介入，这里从图中可以看到，币安的持仓在全网从45%降到了33%。
而从合约数量推测，庄的持仓占比占到了整体仓位的80%。
如果继续拉爆，庄会面临两个问题：
平仓的对手盘在这里？空单全曝光是否会引发风控的问题？
这时候庄的解决办法无法是三种情况：
1.横盘中继，累计一点对手盘慢慢平掉。这样的好处就是平和，但是花时间，可能高控有资金压力。
2.用现货控制费率，吸引多单吃费率，再平掉。（这里从昨天上午的费率没变化到负费率的产生），这个其实也有弊端，经常当庄的没有会知道。
3.拉爆空单，一键平多，圣诞树。这种收益会很少，而且因为对手盘的问题，币安的保证金会接盘，币安肯定会干他。
综上，这对我的空单都不是很积极的预期。
但是，币安占比的降低和ok、bybit占比的升高，可能会有对敲的可能。
昨天盘面也有平多后的打针，这个时候是大量的空单去追空，而不是接多。他还是没法平掉。
他就衍生出对敲的路径去满足maker和taker跨所平衡。
这些在写就是给经常当庄的朋友看了，不深入去说。
那些交易所需要找恶庄，鄙人在此。
我要把这些操作市场割我的，都抓出来弹jj。
@heyibinance @star_okx @GracyBitget
ALERT的会所@BTC_Alert_
再谈交易：我是良民，解除风控，可我亏损3w刀。 币安对主动操作市场的打击开始上强度了，昨天我的 $aria 太像庄了，0.189开多，今天到了0.6，盈利4.5w刀，给我风控了。 币安合约团队第一时间联系到了我，查询了我的账户是否异常，确认我不是庄，保护了我的盈利。 聊天中得知，币安风控的帅小伙是我的铁粉，可惜我直男，不搞基。 其实昨天发完退一个半小时就联系我了，我阳痿有早睡早起的习惯，没看到，自动给我解除了。 $rave 早睡起来亏损了3w刀，我还是抗一抗，不知道我顶不顶得住。 气的我锤了三下JB。 @heyibinance @yaya_bnb @moonkimbinance
中文
@jialin_wang41 @derrrrrrrq 对的，任何时候多空持仓都是一样的，重要的是庄站在哪边，比如庄手里都是多头仓位，对手盘就是做空的哪些人
中文
@WallStreet0Name 有道理，技术分析只是提供了一种看市场的角度，技术分析能够给交易员提供有效信息，有时候是欺骗信息，所以固执的相信某种技术分析结果其实是有害的。
中文
学了8年技术分析的交易员告诉你
日本蜡烛图，斐波那契，缠论，波浪理论，威科夫，和谐形态，订单流，顶底背离，smc，ict，vwap，固定成交量分布图所有技术分析，全是放屁。
所有技术分析都有相同的地方，但是你不要学了点技术分析就想去安排市场，觉得市场一定会这样走。
重要的是不沉迷其中，交易不要有执念，做好仓位管理，趋势来了拿住，看错了认输。
正常走势：会技术的和庄家一起推动盘面，收割不懂技术的韭菜 。
非正常走势：不懂技术的韭菜爆完了，再收割“到位了”的那些懂技术的人。
20年312，比特币单日暴跌50%，原油跌到负数
黄金今年1月的主升浪，前两天40年以来最大暴跌，还有更多例子，收割的都是“到位了”的懂技术的人。
以上极端行情，能活下来的反而是不带杠杆，不敢抄底摸顶比较怂的人。
中文
I didn’t expect an article this long to reach millions in today’s 3-second attention span economy. I’ve read every single quote and comment.
To be honest, I’m overwhelmed. I’ve never felt this much warmth on this platform. And I’m just deeply, sincerely grateful. Thank you, truly.
I’m not much different from anyone else who just entered this space. The only real difference is that I’ve bled more. I’ve lost more.
As a Christian, my faith gave me this habit of constant reflection, and forced me to look in the mirror and face the rot inside me. It gave me a way out when I was drowning, and eventually, that became my redemption.
Crypto was meant to be about anarchy. It was meant to be the middle finger to the gatekeepers in suits who think they’re better than us. That spirit feels dead lately, but I still believe in it. I have to. This space changed my life, and I’ll keep building here until the wheels fall off.
But I’m not going to pretend I had some perfect journey.
In my early years, I got absolutely fucked by Ponzis. I couldn't control my greed and lost most of my early Bitcoin (thank you, MMM). I was just a naive kid.
Every time I think about this part, I want to apologize to my mom. She had zero clue what I was actually doing. I was literally sneaking out every other night to act as a middleman in Vancouver’s nightlife.
I was sourcing and flipping Moutai, whiskey, and expensive cigarettes to rich Chinese university students. I was the one brokering the VIP tables and getting people through the door. Honestly, I was just really good at getting rich kids to come to parties.
I know people look down on that kind of "job." It isn't something people proudly say like "I worked at Google." But I’m proud of it. I was literally making an entry-level Google salary as a teenager just by being a better hustler than the adults.
Without that hustle, I wouldn't have anything I have today. That revenue stream was the only reason I could keep buying back into Bitcoin. I was sitting on a level of wealth I had to hide from my parents for years. No parent in their right mind would let an underage kid handle that amount of wealth.
I’ve never known what it’s like to get rich quick overnight. For me, it was always a long, grueling season.
The closest I ever came to “getting rich overnight” was thanks to Cryptokitties. Watching my kitties flip every day for weeks while ETH was mooning... that was the first time I actually felt like I’d made it.
But the scariest thing is when God gives you a "trial card" to see a world you aren’t ready for, only to snatch it back and throw you to the bottom.
In late 2018, when prices had dumped to a devastating low (again...), I had to go right back to the middleman business to get more bullets. But that time, I was different. My faith had shifted my perspective. I wasn't just chasing a high anymore. I knew, with everything in me, that crypto was the destiny I was meant to build.
If you're at your lowest right now, don't let the ego stop you. I've been in those dark times too. Nothing is "too tacky" when you are grinding to fund your vision. Whether you're hauling inventory, flipping goods, or doing the gritty backend work no one else wants to touch - do what you need to do.
Tell those who try to shame you to fuck off. Because when you finally make it one day, they will all come back to you acting like they were your biggest fans from the start.
The people judging you from the sidelines aren't the ones who are going to change your life. You are.
Keep building. I'm right here with you.
Pickle Cat@0xPickleCati
English
She's your new neighbour, do you accept the invitation?
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