"Ask yourself not why a shitcoin has that OI cap, but instead why the DEX has no concentration charge
English
PERP MECHANIC
58 posts
PERP MECHANIC
@0xCoinflip
quantitative researcher || @perpltrade on @monad
Lost Continent of Lemuria Katılım Ocak 2022
1.3K Takip Edilen603 Takipçiler
HL governance is dealing with the TST perp manipulator by capping OI and likely a forced close-out at a conservative settlement mark. In many ways, this just another case of a liquidity mismatch between spot and perp a for thin shitcoin. No doubt an adversarial actor is at play here, but given the similarity between this and previous situations like JELLY JELLY, we could use this as a chance to be thoughtful about market structure.
Capping the max OI for a futures contract gates risk but does so in a blunt way. It penalizes manipulators at the cost of hedgers and speculators looking to ride "shitcoin deltas" on "mindnumbing leverage." In some of the advanced margining systems in TradFi (CME SPAN, Eurex PRISMA, etc.) there are sometimes concentration charges that are imposed on large/concentrated positions. As a market participant gets an outsized position, margin charges grow super-linearly. Want to take a huge, concentrated position? Fine, just post more collateral.
The SPAN/PRISMA approach relies on stress testing/scenario analysis which is computationally infeasible onchain. That said, the principle behind concentration charges is a valid mechanism for not only disincentivizing this category of manipulating behavior, but when parameterized correctly, can outright prevent these attacks by making them uneconomical.
Due to the computation cost, adapting an onchain variant of this requires some novel mechanism design. The design space is largely unexplored but the underlying principle remains true.
English
an ETF of single vendor chokepoint companies (e.g. ASML) across major industries would be interesting basket to own / track
English
All this being said, the conclusion shouldn't be that an "investor" should only buy graded, English cards. In practice, there is a lot of value in the other variants. However, the JP side is more commodity-like in nature and the demand drivers are structurally different.
English
Things become even clearer when you look at things cross-sectionally. Aspects like this in the TCG market reflect the way how Brent and WTI trade in heavily correlated, but distinct ways.
English
One of the most interesting structural components of the TCG market is the basis between cards across languages. For example, Japanese Pokémon cards structurally trade cheap to their English counterparts (with notable exceptions).
Games like Pokémon and Magic straddle the line between collectibles and commodities. Collectors buy and hold this stuff with various exit horizons (often years or decades). At the same time, these products are "consumable" in the commodity sense. Cards are used in tournaments and the supply of "pristine collateral" decays with various half lives across sets depending on players, scalpers, investors, etc.
In a world of excess money printing, there is a structural demand for scarce assets. Even within scarce assets, the giga-bid is really for pristine scarcity (e.g. BTC). It's curious to see how much of this embeds less in the "physical card" and more into the language on the cardboard.
English
@0x_Abdul if you had to venture a guess, would you expect manipulators to make more money on the long or the short side?
English
unprecedented levels of crime and insider trading are about to take place as some of the biggest tech companies move to IPO this year
brace yourselves
trade.xyz@tradexyz
Introducing Pre-IPO Perpetuals (IPOP). The weeks before an IPO are some of the most consequential in a company’s price history, and historically, the least observable. Private market quotes are stale and gated and Public markets haven’t started trading yet. Peak interest coincides with an absence of prices. We’re introducing IPOP markets on XYZ to change that.
English
companies letting employees spend 50% of their salary on tokens is (somewhat) normalized atp
(thank u jensen)
wonder how long it will be till we go above 100%
English
@0xdoug Power laws in an enterprise context dominate this. Per-employee AI spend in the far right tail went from a 3/4-figure a month proposition last year to 5-figures+ this year
English
I’m really struggling to see how the back of the envelope math on this works out…
There are generously 4 million characterized “software workers” in America. That’s pretty broad and includes a lot of people who aren’t really classical engineers don’t produce that much code.
That comes out to nearly $1k per month of average Claude spend across every dev in America. Yes, there’s some international usage, but it can’t be that much. Yes there is some non software Cowork usage, but that doesn’t use that many tokens. Yes, some non engineers are using Claude to vibe code, but I really doubt many are spending hundreds per month on.
Even if we assume 50% of all software workers are using Claude, that comes out to $2k spend per month per Claude user. Thats 10X more than the highest tier Max subscription. So almost all of Anthropics revenue has to be API billing
So the only explanation is that something like 20%+ of software engineers are not only Claude users but on API billing and regularly spending thousands per month. At $5/m Opus tokens that means the average API user has to be going through something like 25 million tokens per day.
*OR* the other possibility is API revenue is heavily power law dominated. Maybe there’s just something like 100k super users who are making up the majority of the revenue. For that to work the typical super user would have to be spending on the order of $50k/month and guzzling nearly 1 billion tokens per day.
Tannor Manson@Futurenvesting
Anthropic is now showing off $44 BILLION in annual recurring revenue. This is up $14 billion (+46.6%) since last month! BULLISH for AI Infrastructure $NVDA $AMD
English
part of me wants to quote 5bps wide on the HIP-4 BTC up/down market and take all the toxic fills purely for the bravado of market share
English
“Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome.” Guy is just talking his own book.
Personally don’t have a problem with the flow being soft (I’d prefer that vs. having either of you two as a counterparties haha). Users know what they’re signing up for. But the idea that TreadFi is “democratizing market making” is so amiss when in reality it’s just torching money on bad algos for DEX points.
95+% of their volume is on maker bots. If it was the inverse, odds are he’d make up some argument pushing for taker rebates instead as “fair market structure”
English
@AgustinLebron3 You should see the project he’s behind
It’s literally the dumbest idea in crypto, including memecoins
A very bad MM bot, where you lose money and hope the perp dex gives you an airdrop
Basically giving money to HFT firms
English
Lord grant me the self confidence of every guy who:
- Spent the first three years of his career after college at some trading firm,
- And now started some crypto thing,
- And now at age 26, talks like they know everything about trading.
English
conclusion should be: research labs are fundamentally not in control
OpenAI@OpenAI
We’re talking about Goblins. openai.com/index/where-th…
English
prefer my commercials in Japanese so that when I'm getting ad-targeted at least it sounds fly
English
people speak of forward motion as a good thing and inertia as a bad thing. lesson in that
English
if open source is perpetually 6-12 months behind frontier models then 2027 will be a very interesting year for self custodied inference
English