Deric | AGI Social Contract

🧵 "What should the role of governments be after the upcoming AI economic transformation?" We're launching an new anthology on a new "AGI Social Contract" - in collab with 12+ experts to explore new strategies & policy interventions for an AI transition. In collab with: @akorinek, @degerturann, @steveom, @IasonGabriel, @JulianDJacobs, @sjmanning, @dhadfieldmenell, @sethlazar, @petersalib, @collegraphy, @synchroaphasia, @deanwball, @JustinBullock14,

The core interesting idea: if you raised BEPS Pillar 2's minimum global corporate tax rate from 15% to something greater than the average country's corporate tax rate (currently around 20%), you would simultaneously: 1. Create a higher tax rate (e.g. 25%) primarily for the largest, most profitable MNEs already captured by Pillar 2. Eventually induce progressivity for national tax rates, as individual nations seek to narrow the gap between their tax rates and the higher Pillar 2 tax rate for their larger national corporations In practice, this would look very much like a progressive global corporate tax, but retaining national control over corporate tax rates for the majority of their local corporations

Just published a piece on the potential for progressive global corporate taxation to respond to tax base erosion from transformative AI! In short: - Increased corporate taxation would counteract an income shift from labor to capital due to TAI. - Progressive corporate taxation would mitigate the effects of an increasing concentration of economic profits being captured by a small set of firms. - Global coordination would still be necessary to prevent profit off-shoring, as capital is highly mobile. So - a global progressive corporate tax is well-structured to respond to many of the prominent concerns around TAI economic scenarios. How could this be implemented? BEPS 2.0 by the OECD provides the best existing framework for this approach. With some small modifications, it could raise the top rungs of the global corporate tax ladder and simultaneously induce progressive tax rates on a national level.

Link to the piece: windfalltrust.substack.com/p/a-progressiv…

Huge thanks to Gus Docker for hosting me on the FLI podcast earlier this month on the topic of designing a post-AGI social contract! youtube.com/watch?v=aOh2cq… Had an excellent chat on: - What's the current gap between AI futurists and traditional economists? - What could a realistic positive future for a post-scarcity workforce look like? - What types of jobs are deeply resistant even to ASI?

Publishing a lightweight summary of AI's labor market impacts in 2025, in charts and diagrams! All credit for the original slide deck goes to @dannybuerkli. windfalltrust.substack.com/p/brief-4-ais-…

Thanks to @AndreyFradkin, @cookiechat4_0, @yelizarovanna, @yolandalaanquist, @dannybuerkli, and several more people for feedback and contributions!

Just published a piece on @ai_frontiers_ about AI's impact on emerging economies! In short, AI automation threatens to erode export-driven development - one of the foundational economic pathways for developing countries. ai-frontiers.org/articles/ai-co…

4/ The Economist reports that AI adoption for production has stalled at around 11% of workers over the past year. However, its framing appears selective and may not fully capture multi-year trends.

3/ Helen Toner (CSET, Georgetown) argues that the frontier of AI is jagged: AI’s ability to simultaneously solve hard tasks while failing at easy ones should make us cautious about confidently predicting the full automation of remote work. She suggests human-AI collaboration will persist longer than expected.

🧵Latest AI economics brief, co-written by Jacob Schaal: windfalltrust.substack.com/p/brief-3-if-a…

@peterwildeford well, our audience is correspondingly an order of magnitude smaller, because how many people actually want to read technocratic policy ideas in the first place 🤣

but with worse distribution methods

Think tanks are basically just fancy magazines for policy people

Finally - Windfall is hiring for a comms director! #heading=h.7hfnjnhw6982" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/document/d/1pY…

Link: windfalltrust.substack.com/p/brief-1-open… - Benchmarks of remote labor from OpenAI and the Center for AI Safety differ dramatically depending on the content and context of the task. - A new theory suggests AI automation will hit later but faster than expected, which would have major implications for policy timing. - Anthropic presented various policy proposals on the economic impacts of AI for different scenarios in DC, such as a sovereign wealth fund, tax code changes, and adjustment assistance for displaced workers.

We (@windfalltrust) just published our first AI Economics Brief! It'll be a bi-weekly curated newsletter with updates on the economics of TAI. I'll summarize the first one below but you'll need to subscribe for more updates ☺️

Looked up Xania Monet (Billboard-charting AI artist): 1. It's kind of a banger - Christian music rarely get this level of talent 2. Not a single person in the YT comments seems to be aware or cares that it's AI-generated It's happening 🤷‍♂️ youtube.com/watch?v=sE4oFC…

Another way to frame it would be: we will be the elderly parents of superintelligence. If designed well, it should want to take care of us - because we are by definition, its forefathers, the source of all of its knowledge, and the reason it exists.