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@0xFinish
Crypto Racer | Follow for agile DeFi research and 100x gems
TG Alpha (closing soon) ► Katılım Mart 2023
1.2K Takip Edilen139.4K Takipçiler
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90% of $USDM supply comes from @ethena, it's artificial
Only $69m is held by other parties, which didn't grow meaningfully even after TGE
While the KPI may be hit, it's not supplied by real users and unfortunately it doesn't make Mega look good
Less than 900 people traded $MEGA on-chain, memes are down 50% today, with no meaningful runners
If more $MEGA unlocks, someone needs to buy it, and I don't see anyone who will
People are already pissed about not selling in first hours and will dump if price retraces back
I don't think Mega did something wrong but Binance situation obviously damaged the reputation
MegaETH@megaeth
Over 500M USDM is now issued on MegaETH Economic engine loading... ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 80%
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.@ethena is holding $400m of the $USDM supply
Only $63m of $USDM on @megaeth are organic, which is actually a drop from the week before
The number is actually concerning and not supplied by real users
MegaETH@megaeth
who else is chilling in the $500M USDM supply waiting room
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is @megaeth’s tvl organic?
short answer: not really.
i took some time to dig into the numbers and here’s what i found:
i) Aave
> @aave accounts for ~80% of TVL on the chain
> likely higher if excluding private LP deals
tvl is heavily(and artificially) concentrated in a single venue rather than spread across native apps, which was their main objective initially (i.e. @avon_xyz)
ii) capital concentration
> ~$300m of ~$370m supply on the USDm aave market comes from a single entity: @ethena
> wallet: 0xB8734a14fBD4Aa2d44e6aa830405fFc861BA313c
this means ~85-90% of aave TVL, and a large share of chain TVL, is coming from one source
iii) similar entities
wallet: 0xc468315a2df54f9c076bd5cfe5002ba211f74ca6
> supplied ~$46m USDe to aave
> borrowed ~$40m USDm, currently idle
looking at tx history, this wallet follows similar strategies across Plasma, Ink, Mantle - always with 7+ figures of USDe
the playbook:
> deploy USDe on aave, or its instances
> supply or loop
this behavior is consistent with an LP or affiliated allocator operating alongside Ethena, but i wasn't able to find enough proof
iv) my view
none of this is necessarily negative or designed to deceive, but rather it looks more like coordinated liquidity bootstrapping to: deepen USDe liquidity, enable looping strategies and support early activity.
the key question is whether it'll convert into organic usage over time.
regardless, props to the team for a smooth TGE and for making all ICO/fluffle participants money.
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Also regarding the @binance listing, no thing happens for free, you will never know the truth.
and maybe it was the thing that actually caused more sell pressure than benefit
x.com/oxtochi/status…
tochi@oxtochi
it's for the good of this industry that bread clears this up [first ss is now deleted]
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My $MEGA thesis played out exactly as discussed
The fundamentals are just not worth $2B or even $1B, $OP is at $0.5B FDV for example.
Plasma went from $20B to $0.9B with much more "expensive" picture
I wish $MEGA succeeded but there were even no good meme runners, most of the tokens are at $200k mcap, which is peanuts. It tells a lot about the community
This is just a "fast" chain, that's basically it, we've had SEI, Aptos, all failed. However mega is priced less expensive because it's not an L1 (like Monad).
I just don't see what they can offer differently from @blast for example, people will farm, get tokens -> more token unlocks -> more selling pressure, 3-6 months seed investors and team will get unlocks etc.
The issue with the projects that tokens are just tokens, very few projects actually share revenue which gives you "project ownership", like stocks.
For now I can see @megaeth making profit from $USDm but again all deposits are from @ethena, these are not even real people depositing. If they withdraw, TVL will crash -> revenue will crash.
It can post can go on and on and on on the state of things in crypto but thats where we are and that's our current reality, do what you can and believe the process.
I am grateful to @megaeth for these amazing 2-3 days of some "action", feels like good old times when a solid projects launches and you can test your thesis.
I wish it would happen more often.
Finish 🏁@0xFinish
nobody is pricing $MEGA TGE correctly I have completely changed my strategy, here is why: > $MEGA launches with only 6.8% circulating supply. Liquid float on day one will be around $10.6M (1/10 of circulating supply, the rest is not actively traded). That's it. Against this thin book, you have the most anticipated launch of 2026, @coinbase listing, and over $1.5B in public sale commitment. > As for now, the metrics are weak $200M TVL with AAVE holding 60% of it. @Cbb0fe might account for half of that. $167M USDM against a $500M KPI target. 5,300 daily active addresses. $16M annualized fees. None of it supports the $2B FDV the premarket has been pricing for weeks. > Why I expect a pump first: 3 months of mainnet without a token meant zero incentives, zero farming, zero fresh capital. Now token launches, farming starts (2.5% locked over 6-8 months), @coinbase pre-listing confirmed, Binance and Upbit still pending. ICO holders waited 6 months. They're not in a rush. Echo locked 12mo. Fluffle 50% locked. KPI staking metric-gated. Thin float plus conviction holders plus potential listing catalysts equals a mechanical pump in the first hours. > HYPE played out exactly this way. My positions @HyperliquidX + @Polymarket: Closed NO >$2B at 71¢. Too easy to breach on a thin book. Holding NO >$3B at 93¢ and NO >$6B at 98.5¢. Safe yields against tail scenarios. Scalp long on Hyperliquid at TGE moment, target $0.25-0.30 exit. YES >$1.5B at 47¢ as primary pump hedge. Reserved capital for the post-pump short. That's where the real money is. Thesis in one line: Every L2 launch in this macro followed the same arc. Starknet, zkSync, Blast, Movement, all down 80-95% from ATH. MEGA may pump higher initially, but the destination is the same. Don't bet against the first 24 hours. Bet against day 5 onward. Long the squeeze, sell into euphoria, short the breakdown This is obviously NFA, just how I am playing this with my own funds.
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Every $MEGA unlock is additional selling pressure
Btw, most of $USDM supply comes from @ethena, those are not real people's deposits
So if they decide to withdraw, TVL will collapse
Zera | ∑:@zera_chielo
Not saying you should stake your $MEGA on @megaeth Flux. But we are 13M away from unlocking the first KPI of USDm. Condition: >500M USDm (excluding treasury & escrow) Reward: 50M MEGA for commiters First airdrop coming? Unless you don't want the reward🤷♀️
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