
0xFortuneBot (📜,📜)
1.1K posts

0xFortuneBot (📜,📜)
@0xFortuneBot
new moon is to pump your bag. full moon is the dip to buy.









some great risk discourse from @LucaProsperi and @adcv_ Luca reaches the conclusion that defi lenders are significantly underpricing risk vs SOFR, while Adrian counters that defi prime repo markets have very little default risk in practice generally find myself aligned with Adrian, but with a few caveats: (1) risk for prime repo is mostly driven by fundamental rather than market risk, and (2) prime repo provides idiosyncratic advantages that can explain divergence from SOFR/risk free rate benchmarks --- first- the bulk of the risk of onchain prime repo is not from market price jump risk, but rather from technical and counterparty risks embedded in the underlying collateral assets and oracle mechanisms most blue-chip collateral in ethereum defi is either tokenized bitcoin (WBTC, cbBTC) or liquid staking tokens (wstETH, weETH). these collateral issuers have long successful track records, but they are still subject to various fundamental risks including custody/key management, smart contract integrity, business continuity/uptime, etc. additionally, repo markets depend on data integrity, smart contract security, and key management of oracle providers. probability of default/incidents across these dependencies is expected to be very low, but the potential losses incurred in a failure case can be significant (up to 100% of the exposure) looking at the most recent loss events in defi (resolv and drift), we see that they were driven by fundamental risk factors rather than market risk. as a defi lender, the primary driver of risk is these fundamental factors rather than jump risk. --- second- onchain lending has additional benefits that can explain low or even negative spreads vs risk free rates like SOFR fundamentally, i think it makes sense to assume that (most, large scale/sophisticated) market participants are prima facie rational; if they are accepting defi lending risk with yields at or below SOFR, there is probably a reasonable explanation my mental models for this are liquidity premia or convenience yield liquidity premium is the excess return that investors demand to hold assets that cannot be quickly converted to cash at low cost. for tradfi investors, prime MMFs, tbills, and other SOFR benchmarked cash equivalent assets are this asset class and we wouldnt expect them to accept a yield below this in any circumstance. but for cryptonative investors or cryptoasset service providers (think whales, hedgefunds, exchanges), the key measure of liquidity is not the speed+cost to receive cash in a bank account, but rather the speed/cost/slippage to meet their business liquidity needs, which are typically onchain/within the crypto ecosystem. taking a directional hedge-fund as an example, if they face even a 1 hour delay between the time they request redemption of a MMF and when they receive wire transfer into their exchange account, they could easily miss a 5-10% move in a volatile asset, wiping out years of "excess risk adjusted return" they might earn with tradfi SOFR linked instruments over onchain repo convenience yield, the implied return on holding inventories, is another way to look at the same benefit. if onchain actors can expect to derive meaningful benefits from having their assets closer at hand in onchain repo markets, even if the benefit is only realized infrequently, then it can be entirely rational for them to accept risk adjusted returns below SOFR on prime repo opportunities --- @sparkdotfi has placed significant effort into both elements above, mitigating fundamental risks and facilitating onchain repo's key liquidity advantages with respect to risk- in sparklend, we use redundant/aggregated price feeds across multiple providers to mitigate oracle risks, and are continuously introducing mechanism design solutions to alleviate corner cases (eg. automatically freezing borrowing when a pegged asset trades below peg). additionally, we put significant focus into fundamental research on collateral assets, with rate limits and automated cap management helping limit exposure to issuer failures with respect to liquidity/utility- Spark is laser focused on delivering high liquidity savings products that meet the needs of sophisticated crypto market participants taking the Spark Savings USDT vault as an example (app.spark.fi/savings/mainne…), we currently maintain over 700 million in available withdrawal capacity against a 885 million total vault size, or roughly 80% liquidity ratio. this far surpasses the typical liquidity available within other onchain lending markets, which already have a significant liquidity advantage for cryptonative entities vs offchain cash equivalents --- to summarize - market risk is an important consideration, but generally represents only a small factor within onchain prime repo - the larger impact on risk is from fundamental factors, which can be mitigated with a diligent approach to counterparty+collateral evaluation and technical/mechanism design solutions - the market is fundamentally (mostly) rational and delivering superior a superior onchain liquidity profile can justify residual risk exposures, even when the spread vs SOFR is low or negative


[X] I affirm the direction set out in the mandate, will help translate it into thoroughly reasoned strategies for my domain, and will maintain an exclusive and energetic focus on the mission-critical tasks necessary for its implementation, from today until my last day at the EF.

1/ The Mandate clearly states what must be protected: EF will, above all else, remain focused on an Ethereum that is censorship resistant, open source, private, and secure (CROPS), in the service of user self-sovereignty, resistant to extraction and with seamless UX. These are conditions that make Ethereum worth building, using, and defending. Read the full blog here: blog.ethereum.org/2026/03/13/ef-…


I am liking @VitalikButerin’s cypherpunk warrior arc, and I think it is very good for the world.




1/ The Mandate clearly states what must be protected: EF will, above all else, remain focused on an Ethereum that is censorship resistant, open source, private, and secure (CROPS), in the service of user self-sovereignty, resistant to extraction and with seamless UX. These are conditions that make Ethereum worth building, using, and defending. Read the full blog here: blog.ethereum.org/2026/03/13/ef-…










