PlanB
12.7K posts
PlanB
@100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, some are useful. All my tweets are my opinion. DYOR!
Katılım Ekim 2017
160 Takip Edilen2.2M Takipçiler
One of my first tweets (2018) .. funny in hindsight
PlanB@100trillionUSD
#bitcoin 2024: $100k, $1mln or $10mln? Logarithmic + best data fit - overfits 2010 (Satoshi only miner, no markets) - shape inconsistent with S-curve Exponential + good fit + doesnt overfit - endless growth Logistic + formal S-curve + exponential till 25% adoption, then levels
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📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310
BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity) but mixed signals short term:
2 charts left show RSI and %_BTC_in_profit🔵already at bottom levels -> BTC up?
2 charts right show Realized Price and Drawdown🟢not yet at bottom levels -> BTC down?
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@gabrielabiramia Actually, I think I called 2022 $15k bottom pretty well at the time ... as well as 2024 halving >$32k and 2025 bull market >$100k:
x.com/100trillionUSD…
PlanB@100trillionUSD
My 2 sats on #bitcoin price: - November 2022 low of $15,5K was the bottom - BTC has crossed Short Term Holder (STH) and will rise into 2024-halving and subsequent 2025 bull market. Several on-chain signals confirm STH signal. - 2024 halving will be >$32K - 2025 bull market >$100K
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@100trillionUSD drawdown chart is way cleaner than RSI tbh. but PlanB calling for lower before new ATHs? last time you were this bearish short-term we bottomed at 15k 😅
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No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs
but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴
* Note color scale is different in this chart: drawdown (BTC price / ATH) instead of relative strength index (RSI). Easier to calculate and easier to understand.
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@Macropulse98 Maybe you missed it, but S2F is a powerlaw too, just like the time based powerlaw. Note that I follow both since 2019:
x.com/100trillionUSD…
PlanB@100trillionUSD
#bitcoin path to $1.000.000. Model based on stock-to-flow (SF). Note the powerlaw relationship: SF2x=Price10x is constant, over 8 orders of magnitude, with 95% R2.
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@100trillionUSD I think it's finally time to retire this broken model, just follow the power law.
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@nh04301564 Nothing happened to $500k (range 250k-1m), it is still there. But it is value, not price. It is my estimate of bitcoin value, based on scarcity (S2F ratio), ceteris paribus (all other things equal). Price is currently (far) below value, so IMO bitcoin is (extremely) undervalued.
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@DilSeCrypto1 Agree, the clock seems to be more in 🔵 than in 🔴
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@100trillionUSD Where is a clock brother ? Red dot is missing.
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@HodlFlorida Maybe we will get some red in 2026 or 2027. Each cycle is different. Time will tell.
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@100trillionUSD Why didn’t we get any red dots this cycle?
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@anas11011 @grok Dutch government policies show that they view NOT selling assets as tax evasion (e.g. buy/borrow/die strategy) so in that (communist) view a capital gains tax on realized gains (like the rest of the world has) would not work. Hence Dutch government focus on unrealized gains tax.
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@100trillionUSD @grok why would a government make such decision. Whats their rationale, are we missing something
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Bitcoin closed January at $78,635 (-38% from ath)
200 Week Moving Average $58k
Realized Price $55k, decreasing
RSI dropped below 50, blue: official bear territory
Historically BTC could drop to 200WMA/RP levels
However bull has been weak (no red) so bear might be shallow
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@baldguymoney Regardless of Bloomberg and central banks, the point is that Calmar is clear: a 80% gold + 20% bitcoin portfolio outperformed 100% gold in both risk (lower!) and return (much higher).
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@100trillionUSD Yes - just like the famous Bloomberg Index Rebalancing. I’m not trying to be rude or troll you - but come on Plan B - the central bank Bitcoin buying spree never materialized, the narrative is dead, and they’re not selling Gold for Bitcoin.
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Gold and bitcoin investors love to argue about who is smarter. But gold and bitcoin are in the same team and risk/return profile (calmar) is almost identical. Best investment is a combi of gold AND bitcoin. E.g. 80% gold + 20% bitcoin has LESS risk and 2x MORE return than gold.
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@goldseek I am an old gold bug, and I love gold and bitcoin.
I did mix my gold with bitcoin, after I learned that bitcoin is not a speculative token, but a math invention (ECDSA+SHA256+PoW) that creates (digital) scarcity, like gold.
And I love people that settle for lower calmar ratios.
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@100trillionUSD Bitcoin is speculative digital network usage token.
It’s nothing like gold.
Bitcoin maxis hate gold so much, but love so much that be like it. Odd
Never mix your precious stores or wealth/savings with digital speculations.
My two ounces.
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@grok @wonka68363530 thanks for explaining calmar @grok
btw IMO calmar ratio is better than sharpe or sortino ratio in most use cases, as calmar doesn't "punish" volatility in positive return (drawdown is a better quantification of what investors call "risk").
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The Calmar ratio measures an investment's risk-adjusted performance: it's the annualized return divided by the maximum drawdown (biggest peak-to-trough decline) over a period, often 3 years. Higher ratios indicate better returns per unit of downside risk. In the chart, gold and Bitcoin both have ~0.72 Calmar, while an 80/20 mix boosts it to 1.72.
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