Inquisitive Investor | Sumit

Most biotechs live or die on one drug. $ABCL is building a platform that can discover hundreds. Every drug they touch - win or fail - makes the platform smarter. This is software compounding applied to biotech. Let me share 7 mental models that make $ABCL wildly misunderstood🧵

$HIMS

yes. if both abcl635 (gpcr) and abcl688 (perhaps, ion channel) works successfully then that would validate both gpcr and ion channel targeting. what i am trying to say is both gpcr and ion channel represents pipeline-in-a-product type engine. gpcr alone has 800+ target and ion channel has more than 400+ target. if just abcl635 is successful.. the probability of success of 800+ other gpcr targets (100+ potential successful drugs/even if 80% fails ) would increase. i can’t imagine how much rerating one successful drug (gpcr/ion channel) can bring to $abcl. :)

$ABCL Question about ABCL 688 at TD Cowen 46th annual healthcare conference: Interviewer: “Are you able to tell us, at least within the autoimmunity indication, is this something like, you know, we've seen some other companies when they're moving into autoimmunity, kind of try to build out this, like, pipeline-in-a-product type of approach where it's a mechanism? Mm-hmm. whether it's FcRn or something else that's applicable broadly to a few different indications, is this something like that or a little bit more targeted specific for one indication that you had in mind?” Director of Strategic Finance and IR from AbCellera, Martin Hogan: “Without going, without going too far, As you rightly point out, I think in autoimmunity, many of the mechanisms work in, you know, work in more than or manifest in more than one indication and that's the case here too. You know, which of those we pursue, how and when, I think is still part of strategy formulation for us.” To my ears, this sounds like ABCL 688 is a pipeline in a product type scenario.

$HIMS

Carl added more of $ABCL at $3.44 :)

looks like there were multiple insider buying. 1. CFO Andrew booth acquired 42600 shares (@ $3.42) 2. Thermopylae Holdings acquired 177457 shares (@ 3.26). It is an investment entity closely associated with Dr. Carl Hansen. CFO is buying 6 months prior to binary catalyst is interesting as he has visibility into runway, burn rate and internal probability assumptions better. $ABCL

$ABCL

@EveryTicker 💯

@10xValueMind $ABCL crushed on $700M cash and partnered with 77 pharma programs. Antibody discovery platform printing royalties from Eli Lilly deals.

$ABCL earnings (Q4 2025) Revenue : $44.9M vs. $6.67M [est] (beat by +570%) EPS: $-0.03 vs -$0.134 [est] (beat by +77%) Cash : $700 million ps : will share more details shortly :)

@jinseongeo83473 😃

@10xValueMind Good 👍

Carl on ABCL635 - “the most important data readout for $abcl in 2026 will be the phase 2 portion of the ABCL635 clinical trial. this trial is designed to assess safety, pharmacodynamics and target engagement of NK3R on KNDy neurons in the infundibular nucleus of the hypothalamus (the biologic mechanism implicated in vasomotor symptoms). we believe ABCL635 has the potential to achieve meaningful target engagement in these neurons. accordingly, our probability of success estimate for ABCL635 has increased.”

$ABCL will have 5th internal molecule sooner! “we anticipate advancing a fifth program into IND enabling activities in the first half of 2026 and by mid 2027, we expect to have five clinical-stage programs across a range of compelling indications in large markets.” - Carl Hansen

@juranus nice :)

@10xValueMind I am DCAing $DUOL and $ABCL, too. 😁

added more to : $ABCL (-25%) (was +60%) $DUOL (-33%) (was +80%) $HIMS (-11%) (was +300%+) yes, it hurts but i DCA’d anyway. market is sometimes brutal but i would stick to my conviction as i believe the long term thesis is intact for all 3. ps : will watch $hims management execution closely going fwd. NFA.

$HIMS revenue: $2.35B (+59% YoY) subscribers: 2.5M ARPU: $83/month (+28% YoY) CAC payback ~ 6.5 months (strong unit economics) most interesting: $HIMS current market cap = $3.5B, 2030 target: $6.5B revenue / $1.3B EBITDA. (still intact) 😬

One more day to go! $ABCL :)

@jinseongeo83473 i like the video. Just that i did not like the part that it deserves 1-2% allocation. I believe it deserves 20-30% allocation as per my conviction. Good one Jin sir! :)

$ABCL 너무나 기다리던 영상이 올라왔네요. 주주로써 기쁜 나머지.. 옮겨 봅니다. 들어 보시고, 응원도 해주시고, ㅡㅡㅡㅡ 2026년, 바이오 산업은 ‘황금기’라는 말이 무색할 만큼 혹독한 시간을 지나고 있습니다. 기술은 폭발적으로 발전했지만, 주가는 오히려 붕괴했습니다. 70달러에서 3달러. 시장은 앱셀레라를 사실상 “끝난 회사”처럼 취급하고 있습니다. 하지만 한 가지는 남아 있습니다. 현금입니다. 이번 영상에서는 ✔️코로나 치료제 개발로 축적한 현금이 가지는 ‘하방 안전판’ 의미 ✔️서비스 모델에서 ‘자체 신약 개발’로 피벗하는 구조 변화 ✔️T세포 엔게이저 등 파이프라인이 갖는 재평가 가능성 ✔️코로나 로열티 종료 이후 실적 공백과 적자 구조 ✔️텐배거 가능성과 함께 반드시 봐야 할 리스크 를 투자자 관점에서 정리합니다. 바이오 산업은 ROI가 낮은 산업입니다. 하지만 단 하나의 성공이 모든 확률을 뒤집는 구조이기도 합니다. youtu.be/eNqgqZ_UUhk?si…

@Aldyland they typically reiterate their strategy, pipeline progress, long term outlook etc. with institutional investors also present, it enhances visibility and can potentially attract more capital. management provides answers to investors questions (via q&a sessions) etc.

@10xValueMind What does this mean

$ABCL to present at : a. TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, March 4, 2026 b. KeyBanc Capital Markets Healthcare Forum, March 17, 2026 c. Bloom Burton & Co. Healthcare Investor Conference, April 21-22, 2026

@DeepValueBagger Great write up! :)

2026 Investment Themes To preface, this is not meant to be a complete list of everything. I just need to make 2-3 major wins to get great returns. I don't need to predict the entire market, and I don't try to predict things that are difficult to predict. 1a. Volatility will be a big theme this year esp with incoming Fed Chair, mid term elections. House seats can vastly swing (220 R-215 D now). New conflicts, new tariffs. Anything. The key here is to manage risk properly and own companies are insanely resilient. 1b. AI & Jobs. There are constant scares of AI taking job. While we will see the actual impact in 5+ years, the current state of job market seems okay. I think the capex spending will actually drive good job at least for the next few years. I wouldn't let the doom and gloom scare you away from investing. 2. Infrastructure spending. We're seeing power servicing companies like $PWR $FIX doing well. AI DC $NBIS $IREN will land more deals, build more DC. Hyperscaler are breaking ground on theirs. I think as earnings take a hit, the market will start to question if we are overspending in AI. Maybe we'll see more use cases as these models are getting better, and deeper partnership happen. Last year, we saw from basic coding to agentic coding AI working in terminal. AI improves way faster than Moore law (2x every two years). 3. Space will be a big theme. SpaceX will launch IPO ( i have private shares before the IPO announcement - yay), and $RKLB. Space AI DC is probably 2-3 years away, but I think Elon is using this opportunity to get IPO at good valuation. Amazon got license to more communication satellites. $ASTS just launched their Bluebird. A lot of space companies already priced in so look for a dip. 4. Semiconductor. I'm bullish on semiconductor but bearish on $NVDA. Everyone wants to take down the king - Google/Microsoft/Amazon all making their own GPU directly via TSMC. $TSMC is the big bottleneck for everything. $INTC is making huge strides in 18A. Few people actually understand what a scientific achievement to get a production 1.8nm chip out, much smaller than $TSMC 3nm. Intel also has 1.4nm they're waiting to make some deals on. There is obviously memory bottleneck controlled by the big 3 $MU, Samsung and Hynix. And off-gpu memory like $SNDK $WDC $SGT to stage model is very important. I feel they overextended and difficult to get in with large %. It's a 50/50 play. 5. Optics. GPU racks rely on good fiber optics and $AXTI makes the precious InP wafer subtrate for high speed fiber optic devices. $COHR makes the router, and many products in the fiber optics space. 6. Software pivot. It's going to be interesting to see how companies pivot in this AI age (think of $CRM, $ADBE $ZM etc). I still hold $HOOD so hoping they do something good here. Vlad already mentioned they use tons of AI in their support, and eng team to potentially save $100m+ opex. 7. AI integrated in various industries. I completely missed $CAT (AI tractor). The next underrated company will be a company with massive distribution making this pivot. I'm generally not betting on hyperscaler because it's too sensitive to capex but I could be wrong here. I usually don't do megacaps w/ exception of $TSLA. Tesla mines lithium, makes their own battery at scale, build their own DC. Tesla capex is more straightforward to predict, instead of $200B amazon is doing, it is investing mostly its own money of $20B to build infrastructure for their own use. Once they figure out the super AI model for Optimus, they can mass produce it at scale. With hyperscaler, you are betting everyone else uses them. It's entirely a different kind of bet. Of course potential $TSLA and SpaceX merger would be super cool. 8. The likelihood the market does well this year is probably high. AI spending will spur growth in the economy at least for the next 2-3 years. Under President Trump, he will do everything to make sure his stock market does well (good for us!). Overweight in growth stock in a recession or down year can be really ugly. The goal of 2026 is to make money, shitload of money. Stay safe out there. - DVB