13ft7

🇵🇰 pre-Pakistan Islamabad talks Iran's negotiators v Vance-Kushner-Witcoff 🇮🇷 v 🇺🇸🇮🇱

Using Feb data provided by Dallas + NY Fed ==> inflation may have started to move down

🇺🇸 US #CPI monthly headline inflation🚀 to: +0.87% excluding volatile items (eg fuel): stable at +0.2% effect = lifts headline annual from +2.4% to +3.3%pa Trump's problem: headline number will stay in the annual calculation for next 11 mths = countervailing *disinflation needed

rising $A - once again reducing the value of superfunds' and ETF 's foreign holdings - just as they recover

SPX stops being scared

Trump may now be quietly seeking Powell’s aid to gain market credibility. Bessent could now shift slightly from Trump spruiker to emerging adult in the room à la Trump I

PCE monthly +0.37% = well above +0.17% (MoM) sustainably needed to reach 2% (YoY) target all core measures [CPI PPI PCE MCT] lifting monthly Feb data: all pre-Straits war

US #PCE inflation pulls back a little but BEA is still playing catchup after US Gov Oct 25 shutdown [Feb data] {March on 30 Apr}

global inflation expectations cooling (2yr)

skew + vix = now re-centred

US markets: confidence returns Q1 reporting season: Goldman Sachs (Monday)

VIX: becoming calming index [inverse]

🇳🇿 NZ leaves rates on hold: global confusion on oil supplies 🗣️ "the extent of the near-term increase in headline inflation will depend on how the conflict in the Middle East evolves and the magnitude and duration of the disruption to global supply chains and energy markets"

RBA is looking at something very hard to sense accurately

over the last year $CSL has halved its share of the 3 stock Aust portfolio $CBA and $BHP tussle it out to climb above 45% [by capitalisation]

Iran Straits and ceasefire offer sees sees both USD + US yields pull back

gas and north sea oil take a tentative step lower as the world waits to see if 🇺🇸Trump can contain 🇮🇱Netanyahu in his attempt to extricate himself from 🇮🇷Iran

The 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 peacefire switch airlines📈 gas retailers stable oil/gas producers 📉 fuel retailers 📉 = bandwidth narrows

🇦🇺 $A 📈 on Mr T's ceasefire and Iran's [apparent] agreement to allow passage through the Straits of Hormuz

🌎yield curves being tossed about as bond markets try to assess differing national impacts of oil supply constraints