161phi
25.4K posts
@willamtheblind ya, that train is in motion, but pro behavior vs amateur also striking atm
ppl not worried much
English
@chakravartiiin My best friends 10 year old little sister hung herself after her mom died of cancer. This was in 2001. Kids are human beings with emotional capacity and the fact that you don’t understand that does not make sense to ME at at all.
English
Pardon me but how does a ten year old get depressed much less take such an extreme step like this? Do kids even have such emotional capacity at that age? This does not make sense to me at all.
WTF@mrwtffacts
In 2025, after a long battle with depression, 10-year-old Liberty Hall tragically took her own life. She left behind this note for her mother, apologizing, and asking her not to blame herself 💔
English
Just a PSA for my white British friends. If you are dude and you’re. gonna say you want “Almond Milk” with your British accent.
Us Caribbean folk are gonna hear “All Man Milk..” …..so it’s better you bring a local to help you order.
English
Those interested in German stock and bond returns early last century, the best guesstimates of German decade-level annualized real returns are:
-14% equities / -10% bonds for 1910–1920
-24% equities / -95% bonds for 1920–1930.
There's a separate lesson there is that if you rebalance to 60/40 stocks/long-term nominal bonds every month during a hyperinflation, then it's not going to work out for you.
English
@Ozard_OfWiz Ah for the days when peeps pitched me 30% yield in private credit to pot stonks
English
@FinEconGlobal Was on a plane with a lady that is a professional crew member for wealthy peeps that like to sail. Mebe fun gig for a while for young peeps
English
This is not true. Effective unemployment is around 10%.
Its very misleading for someone to claim it's effectively zero. Eric strongly suggests he should know this. So, he's either incompetent or he's lying.
Eric Cunningham@decunningham2
Economists: Unemployment is basically zero. Why is everyone unhappy? People: Everything is too expensive Economists: There is no explanation - this is a vibecession” People: I don’t like that prices are up 30% Economists: It is a mystery that may never be solved!
English
@ptuomov @dampedspring Yep. Like in pot stonks collapse, you could catch bounces. But if you held longer term, u got rinsed
English
@dampedspring I think it's slightly different.
In a deflating bubble, you can sometimes by truly extreme weakness. But you can never buy strength.
English
Trading and investing in a bubble regime
1. Always own beta (doesnt matter much what kind)
2. With every ounce of your being do not leverage up
3. Overweight professional managed cheap trend following managers
4. Under no circumstances short the rally.
5. BUT most importantly do not buy the dip when the bubble has popped.
Excess Returns@excessreturnpod
"What I've noticed in looking at bubble regimes is strategies that work most of the time don't work as well in bubble regimes, except for one." "Your alpha is probably less than it has been because your sample set that you've used to train your alpha, train your mind doesn't include very many bubble regimes." Andy Constan on how active investors can adjust in a bubble regime.
English
This opinion piece advocates 90% stocks / 10% T-bills portfolio instead of the common 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio recommendation.
My question to the author: Starting with 90/10 stocks/bills, would your portfolio get better or worse if you'd add, say, 15% of Ultra T-bond futures?
English
@AkaLazarus @h_thoreson @spencerpratt Return of early 80s homeless camp. John Carpenter used one on skid row as a set for They Live, was removed later.
English
Growing up in Los Angeles I never saw trash, graffiti, tents, feces, drug paraphernalia on our streets. I want my LA back @spencerpratt.
English
@sidprabhu @LONGCONVEXITY Yep, if they run inflation over 4 handle equity multiples fall. And 60% of state capped inflation adjustments for pensions at 2 or 3% or eliminated entirely. So inflation helps those states budgets but hits the retirees. Social security gets hit like this in 4 years
English
@sidprabhu Cuz sentiment is equal weighting & asset ownership has a long right tail
English
“If times have been so good, why do we feel so bad?”
Sid Prabhu@sidprabhu
The so-called vibecession is just people internalizing the illusory nature of prosperity in an inflationary environment. In effect, realizing that they’ve just been tricked. Here’s a book on the 70’s inflation from 1981 describing the same phenomenon.
English
@lilchiva @red_flag_raised Yep. Mebe because it is profitable for tech bros to hype AIs as labor substitutes cuz they can quantify cost savings of replacing peeps to sell & raise money. But real scientists been using as a tool that complements their worm
English
@red_flag_raised @161phi That's the interesting thing. Because in practice for a lot of projects you want to use weaker models so that you can more easily control the outputs. Most systems that do something real are made worse with too much "thinking" and tool calling is easier/faster with few tools.
English
@Fynamix Consistency trumps quality.
Also, lots of hot chicks here on a Sunday.
English
20 minute wait for a f***ing double espresso at Starbucks WTF.
Slowbucks.
English
Me: My jaw is tight and clenched did my cancer come back?
Internet: thats probablyTMJ
Me: My upper back hurts, did my cancer come back?
Internet: possible, but only if it’s associated with tightness of nearby joints
Me: YEAH MY JAW IS TIGHT
Internet: Oh that’s probably bad TMJ
English
@Dcpcooks @ScottPh77711570 Plenty of systematic peeps had drawdown when things heated up in Middle East
English
Benn is my friend and fuck the haters
A fine human being in every way that matters
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴☠️@bennpeifert
Good morning my loves, happy Saturday. Sorry I've been quiet, obviously been busy, but thought it'd be nice to give you all the details on the multi-strategy absolute return program that experienced the 28% drawdown this year. (1/n)
English