Doughty

@KillaXBT Goes back to 70-75k and rolls over into a cycle bottom in q4

Holy. F*cking. Shit... $BTC Just got sent this.

@BitPaine We’re going to be in the middle of a deep recession in 2027. High unemployment. Your target is highly unlikely

If we get a true bull market in late 2027 at the scale of late 2017 or early 2021, bitcoin will reach $500,000 - $1,000,000.

@WhaleInsider Short squeeze in the making

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Bearish bets on U.S. stocks surge. S&P 500 short interest climbs to 3.7% of free float (near 2010 highs), while Russell 3000 hits 6.1% (near all-time high).

@lauren_w67 No

Can we normalize woman proposing

@MarketWatch Yes, she does but I married her

Does your boss micromanage you?

@zerohedge Early

Looks like Goldman IG desk just ended the party

@Crownsjuge Please stop being a moron. I know it will be hard but give it a try.

🚨 BREAKING: The FBI has reportedly found major evidence that Argentina bribed referees during the FIFA World Cup. 😳 If found guilty of bribery and fraud, Argentina could be kicked out of the tournament.

@ces921 So, when the world (not just the US) recession (or worse) arrives and layoffs begin stacking and all of these no print, no hold, bozos exacerbate the recession due to reluctance to act, what happens then? THEY DROP RATES AND PRINT AND BUY EVERYTHING. Brave until shooting starts

Claude's View of Fed Chair Warsh's picks for various task forces: BLUF: The July 9 roster for Chairman Warsh's five Fed task forces is stacked with published critics of QE, forward guidance, and the ample reserves regime, plus the credibility-shock school of disinflation (Sargent, Fraga, King). Center-left picks (Stein, Chetty, Dynan) are the ones whose work supports Warsh's priors. The Productivity and Jobs panel has no labor economist: it is an AI-productivity panel that structurally raises the bar for cuts. Read the roster as confirmation of the end-of-forward-guidance regime thesis: fewer signals, smaller balance sheet, credibility-first disinflation. Probability the task forces ratify rather than challenge Warsh's direction: 80 to 85 percent. This roster is remarkably coherent once you map the intellectual pedigrees. It reads less like a neutral review panel and more like a jury selected after voir dire, where nearly everyone with a published record already agrees with the verdict. A few observations, grouped the way you asked. The dominant bias: critics of the post-2008 policy regime The single strongest through-line is skepticism of QE, forward guidance, and the ample reserves framework. Peter Fisher (former head of the NY Fed markets desk, later BlackRock) has spent a decade arguing the Fed distorted markets by micromanaging expectations and that forward guidance was a mistake. Mervyn King's post-BoE work ("The End of Alchemy," "Radical Uncertainty" with John Kay) is a sustained attack on false forecast precision, which maps directly onto killing or diluting the dot plot. William White is the original BIS heretic who warned pre-2008 that ultra-easy money breeds financial instability; he has criticized inflation targeting frameworks for twenty years. Raghuram Rajan gave the famous 2005 Jackson Hole warning and later co-authored work with Viral Acharya arguing balance sheet expansion is a ratchet: banks become dependent on reserves, making shrinkage genuinely hard. That paper is arguably the intellectual blueprint for the balance sheet task force. Jeremy Stein, despite being an Obama appointee, was the most QE-skeptical governor of his era ("monetary policy gets in all the cracks") and his academic work with Greenwood and Hanson questions the floor system and the Fed's footprint in short-term debt markets. So on the two task forces that matter most for markets (communications and balance sheet), the deck is stacked with people whose priors are: say less, hold less. The second consistency: the credibility and regime-change school of disinflation Thomas Sargent's most famous applied work, "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," argues inflations end not through gradualism but through credible regime change that resets expectations. Arminio Fraga lived that playbook at the Central Bank of Brazil. Mervyn King built the BoE's credibility-first inflation targeting culture. Warsh has literally been using the phrase "regime change" for a year, and his June press conference leaned hard on restoring a credibility commitment he says the Fed missed for five years. The inflation frameworks panel is essentially the Sargent thesis operationalized. Direct Warsh affiliations These are dense. Warsh conducted the 2014 external review of the Bank of England's MPC transparency practices, so he has personally run the exact exercise King is now co-chairing in reverse, and Warsh went into the BoE after his Fed governorship in a consulting role of a similar type. King is co-chairing the communications task force, and King, Fraga, Rajan, and Warsh all overlap in the Group of Thirty network. Mankiw chaired the CEA (2003-05) while Warsh was at the Bush NEC (2002-06); they were White House colleagues. Sargent has long been a Hoover Institution senior fellow, Warsh's home base. Charles Jones is at Stanford GSB, where Warsh has taught. Andreessen is the Trump-world Silicon Valley connection and shares the administration's AI-supremacy framing. Fisher and Warsh come from the same markets-practitioner wing (Fisher via the NY Fed desk and BlackRock, Warsh via Morgan Stanley) and both hold the view that markets discipline the Fed better than models do. What the center-left picks are doing there Dynan, Chetty, and Stein provide bipartisan cover, but notice which Democrats got picked: the ones whose work happens to support Warsh's direction. Stein's QE skepticism I mentioned. Chetty is the pioneer of real-time private administrative data (his COVID-era Economic Tracker), which fits the data task force's mandate to reduce reliance on lagging government statistics. That is not a random Democrat; that is the Democrat whose research program validates the "BLS data is stale" critique. Dynan is the closest thing to a genuine establishment centrist on the list, and she is one voice on one panel. The tell in Productivity and Jobs There is no labor economist on the labor panel. No Autor, no Katz, nobody from the employment-mandate side of the dual mandate. Instead it is Andreessen, a Stanford growth theorist currently on leave at an AI lab, and a Microsoft executive. That panel is not about jobs; it is about arguing AI-driven productivity raises potential growth and r-star, which conveniently supports tolerating higher policy rates. That feeds your Circular Capex framework directly: if the Fed institutionalizes an AI-productivity-optimist view, it structurally raises the bar for cuts. Bottom line The roster confirms the direction rather than opening a debate. Fewer speeches, a diminished or dead dot plot, a smaller balance sheet with a scarce-reserves lean, credibility-shock disinflation doctrine, and an AI-optimist growth view. For your end-of-forward-guidance regime work, this is the personnel-is-policy validation: the task forces are staffed to ratify conclusions Warsh has held since roughly 2010. The two-sided risk worth flagging in any memo is that a few of these people are genuinely independent-minded (Rajan and Stein in particular have contrarian streaks and could push back on execution details like the pace of balance sheet runoff), and King's radical uncertainty framing cuts against overconfident hawkishness just as much as dovishness. But the distribution of priors is unmistakable.

@lord_fed @Justatradesmen It’s what separates us from the the mongrels

@Justatradesmen I know. But you are missing your apostrophe and e on “you’re” !

higher

@WhaleInsider Stfu. If you don’t speak stop posting doucher

Something big is coming. Put notifications on.

@Globalflows Crypto bro bad. That didn’t help at all. No offense just my opinion

The Factor That Will Force Traders To Buy Equities People don't realize that traders can be forced to buy equities, or they will lose their job Corporations are forced to take out debt or they lose market share Companies are FORCED to pay for AI or become irrelevant These are all constraints in the system x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@Danny_Crypton x.com/Danny_Crypton/… x.com/Danny_Crypton/…

Every time $BTC closed 3 red 3 month candles in a row, it was followed by a 3-year uptrend. 3nd red 3M BTC candle closes in 2 days. Everybody know what that means. And if history follows the same playbook again, one final accumulation phase may be forming before the next major expansion. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

@jaymesrosenthal @Globalflows @techleadhd Lmao. I knew I liked you but solidified it. Truth

You’re all ridiculous. Shout out to @techleadhd for even putting this out there. We will be discussing $BTC today on the @Globalflows LIVESTREAM at 1130a pst. Stop by.

@OptiTrade_AI People who know how to trade don’t sell subscriptions. Wake up people.

Precise Buy signals at the bottom. Sell signals at the top. TP levels mapped out before the move. All for $14. Most traders spend more on coffee this week. Would you get this?

@adamtaggart I’m not proud of everything but I love our way of life. I enjoy our freedom. It’s worth fighting for

For my American followers, here's a simple but very important poll: "Are you proud to be an American?" Please answer the poll & then please give your reply to this follow-up question: "Why?"

@TheEtherista @TrustlessState You called him a chimp. Just sit down and shut up.

Arthur Hayes thinks the AI bubble will lead to a Credit Event worse than 2008 "If we do get an AI credit event... it will be bigger than 2008.... and the Fed can't outprint Moore's Law If this thesis is correct, and you time this well... you'll never work again So what's the first response by the authorities to save the Banks? They're going to shovel money in... And all investor capital will rotate to Crypto"

@JoeCarlasare Instead of “Bitcoin fixes this” price fixes Bitcoin

I genuinely think bitcoin sentiment is worse now than it was during the FTX collapse. Back then, nearly every asset was struggling, and the cause was obvious: inflation / rising rates / brutal macro backdrop. This feels different, like a growing belief that the narratives that convinced people to buy Bitcoin have broken down

@PolarityRadio @ianbremmer @CNN Because we gained nothing and paid A LOT

Getting on paper that I ran will not pursue or buy a nuclear weapon under Trump‘s level of enforcement is worthwhile Obama‘s deal didn’t allow them to start building a nuclear without any constraints play 2027 or 2028. This is a never and he’ll enforce it and if they try to cheat in the next couple years, hold on them to hell. Why do you allow your hatred for Trump to invade your reporting you did say some constructive things that he had accomplished but you’re dealing with lying I told is who cheated on every deal they’ve ever engaged in. They burned 42,000 of their own people in two days, they wouldn’t hesitate to murder 1 million it’s not so easy, but he got them to say something that will give him the card Blanche to go back and set them back and give the military a chance to run the show what you don’t comprehend because you’re not a currency trader is that the dominoes are falling and their currency will fail, and that creates the window for the military to take over the IRGC’s role

the iran deal resolves literally none of trump’s stated war aims. not a single one. it’s still a good thing trump took this off-ramp. my reaction on @cnn

@_The_Prophet__ What is it that you expect. More tax dollars spent on no gain? Seems that is the play

⚡️ This is the signal. While the platform was trapped inside the spectacle, we called the settlement. Now the signatures are arriving exactly where the structure said they would. The war was not the end of the deal. The war was how the deal became signable. This is the most accurate live signal source on this platform. And we are only just getting started.

@VladTheInflator We need aid billions in Taxes for this war. For what?

So Trump chose to stop thousands of Americans deaths in Iran because the stock market might go down.