咲野俊介
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「9条守れ」と「アメリカに媚びるな」の両立は不可能だということにそろそろ気づいてほしい。 戦力不保持の9条を守るということは「自分で自分を守れない」従属国家としての生存戦略をとるということ。 「媚び」ざるをえない精神的不快もさることながら、そもそも他国に自国の生死を預ける生存戦略そのものが合理的と思えない。 いつまでも米国が「従属」させてくれるかどうかも分からない。 現にトランプ大統領は「G2」とツイートし、ヴァンス副大統領は「西半球に集中!」と唱える世界線で、「極東」の日本が「従米国家」から「従中国家」への鞍替えを余儀なくされるタイミングが来ないとも限らない。 「9条」を盾にして身を守るということは、そんな風に、自分の船のオールを他人に渡すということで、それはつまり自分の努力とは関係ない事情で浮き沈み、生き死にするという選択に他ならない。「戦略」というより最早「哲学」だし、私はそんな哲学に巻き込まれたくないなあ。 他方、「自分で自分を守り、不足は互いに守り合う」主権国家になろうとするなら、ちゃんと自衛権を戦力と位置付けて、自ら戦力行使のルールを決めて、自衛官を守り支えるための9条改正が必要になる。 「毅然とした外交」を望むならどう考えてもこっちだし、その満足感以上に重要なのは、現にそれ以外に合理的な生存戦略は望めないということ。 今回「9条に守られてよかった」という言説があるけれど、それはつまり「9条で応援を断ってもトランプに見捨てられなくてよかった!」「アメリカが引き続き守ってくれるようでよかった!」という話。そんな風に「9条」を盾に生きていく道を選ぶなら、少なくとも高市外交を「媚びている」と非難する資格はないんじゃないかな。 asahi.com/articles/ASV3Q…
「かなり深刻で危機的」ホルムズ海峡緊迫でプラスチック製品に危機 中国では一部企業が原材料を買い占め 日本などに輸出する製品に影響も ift.tt/RLEepd9


BREAKING: While the world watches Iran, Ukraine just set fire to Russia’s largest oil export terminal on the Baltic Sea. Overnight March 22-23, Ukrainian drones struck the port of Primorsk in the Leningrad region. Fuel storage tanks are ablaze. Personnel have been evacuated. Firefighting is underway. Leningrad Governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed the hit. Russia’s Defence Ministry says 249 Ukrainian drones were launched across the country overnight. More than 70 were intercepted over the Leningrad region alone. The ones that got through hit the largest crude oil loading port in the Baltic. Primorsk processes up to 1.5 million barrels of oil and oil products per day. It handles approximately 100 million tonnes per year. It is the endpoint of the Baltic Pipeline System. It is the port from which the bulk of Russia’s Urals crude is shipped, including via the shadow fleet that circumvents Western sanctions. Both Primorsk and the nearby Ust-Luga port have suspended operations. Primorsk is 1,087 kilometres from Ukraine’s nearest border point. This is not a frontline strike. This is a strategic reach attack on the infrastructure that funds the Russian war machine while Vladimir Putin profits from a Middle East war he did not start. Hold two numbers in your mind. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20 million barrels per day and is effectively closed. The IEA estimates 7 to 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production has been shut in. Now add Primorsk: 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day suspended on the Baltic. The world’s two largest oil chokepoints, separated by 4,000 kilometres, are both on fire simultaneously. One closed by Iran. One burning because of Ukraine. Two wars. Two chokepoints. One global oil market. Putin’s Gulf war windfall just caught fire. In the first two weeks of March, Russia earned an extra 7.7 billion euros in fossil fuel exports as Hormuz-driven prices spiked. Those extra revenues funded approximately 17,000 Shahed drones per day at production cost. The money flowing through Primorsk was paying for the drones hitting Ukraine. Ukraine just hit the port that was paying for the drones. The timing is surgical. President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on Iranian power plants expires today. Iran has promised to permanently close Hormuz and destroy all regional energy infrastructure if that ultimatum is executed. Saudi Aramco is telling Asian buyers to prepare for partial April volumes through a Red Sea bypass port that Iran has already hit with missiles. And now Russia’s Baltic crude pipeline has a fuel tank on fire at its terminal. Oil touched $100 per barrel this morning. Brent is above $114. The IEA has already released 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, the largest in history. Analysts estimate those reserves buy 73 to 83 days. The Iran war is 23 days old. The Primorsk fire started hours ago. The two clocks are now running simultaneously, and the oil market has nowhere to hide. Every barrel that does not load at Primorsk is a barrel that does not reach a European refinery. Every barrel trapped in the Gulf is a barrel that does not reach an Asian refinery. The planet is now short on both ends: the Gulf that feeds Asia and the Baltic that feeds Europe. The fertilizer plants, the ammonia synthesis, the urea granulation, the planting season, the food supply, the helium for TSMC, the chip fabrication: all of it runs on molecules that are currently either trapped behind a closed strait or burning in a fuel tank on the Baltic Sea. Two wars. Two chokepoints. One planet. Zero spare capacity. Full deep dive analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

More than 340 retired U.S. generals, admirals, and national security experts have issued a public warning: Donald Trump poses a threat to American democracy. The criticism has also been joined by prominent figures from his own administration — John Kelly and Mark Milley. The latter directly called Trump “the most dangerous person for the country.” Particular concern is being raised about his strategy toward Iran. Military experts consider it unjustifiably risky and poorly planned. Instead of clear objectives — contradictory statements; instead of dialogue with opponents — personal attacks and threats. Veterans warn that such an approach risks repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan, but on an even more dangerous scale.






















