E.Terrible

@joeshortsqueeze I picked the wrong day to quit sniffing glue

🤣

A major feature of private markets is negative convexity. Investors accept the extra yield spread (the liquidity premium) to compensate for this, and should manage their book accordingly. "Cryin' won't help ya; prayin' won't do ya no good"

@TKL_Adam Oil price increases caused by short-term supply disruptions have far less of an impact on broader inflation than "demand-pull" price gains

How high will inflation go? According to a recent Fed study, every $10 rally in oil prices can increase inflation by ~20 bps. Oil has already surged from $55 to $80 per barrel, implying +50 bps of inflation pressure. This could push CPI from 2.4% to ~2.9%. When oil prices rise above $90/barrel inflation becomes hotter, with ~3.2% inflation expected at $95/barrel. Our chart and below Article summarize why oil prices are now the key leading indicator to watch. Inflation is heating up.

@junkbondinvest IOPIK

50-year interest only mortgage

Unpopular opinion: BOJ finally loses control, JGBs trade at a discount within the next 18 months, Ueda commits seppuku

@joeshortsqueeze calling me out because it traded new highs after settlement

Outside reversal day in bonds. Posting this chart because I feel like posting this chart. #bonds $ZB_F

@joeshortsqueeze It's so awesome to read these words right now. Cheers bud

I’m now 5 months into being a full time trader. A few thoughts: At first, I’ll admit, I felt like a fraud. While I had a lot of experience trading, it had never been my only source of income. I’d always had the certainty of a paycheck. I was confident I could do this, but not really comfortable. The first 2 months were not great. I underperformed my expectations and made less than I was making at my old job. My wife kept asking me “are we gonna be okay?” The adjustment from taking risks with money that was soon to be replenished to taking risks with my only capital was tough. My 3rd full month (February) was awful. Bad reads, bad execution. I made half of my old salary. Started applying for jobs lol I caught my footing in March and have been rolling since. Settled in, and consistent. The next step for me is ramping up to “exceeds expectations” rather than “meets expectations”. Trading can be really hard. It can also be an extraordinarily simple means for making an income. Mentally, once I accepted reality and started viewing myself as a professional, I started acting like one. All the bad habits went away. I still have a long way to go, but I couldn’t be happier with life right now. I’m free and accountable to no one but my family and myself. Sorry for the long-ass post

Are we at the point yet where the Fed tries to use moral suasion to stabilize bond markets in front of an auction? Or will they wait and see how it goes first? Either way, all eyes will be fixated on the bond screens at 1pm today and tomorrow.

@CRUDEOIL231 Long end auctions this week - will Beijing boycott? Primary dealers seem worried...

The monkeys are celebrating the rebound in the asset market today. Oh but wait... The bond market is finally starting to move... The vigilantes are coming.....

Bond market seems worried about long-end auctions this week. Maybe we should be, too.

The Fed put expired. Market now hunting for a deep out of the money Trump put

Godspeed to the Bund vigilantes. Starting to restore my faith in German fiscal conservatism, one basis point at a time.

Bond market participants appear to recognize this new reality. They see a Treasury Sec talking about balancing the budget and are lifting offers as they revise lower their growth and supply forecasts. I don't want to fade these flows. Also, happy month end to those who celebrate.

A lot of people don't want to admit this but a huge contributor to growth in recent years was fiscal stimulus. It started during covid and never really stopped. But a new reality is starting to sink in, and with it comes a big shift in confidence and expectations. Bulls beware.

@Credit_Junk Also the German elections and more talk about increased deficit defense spending, joint EUR issuance, etc

UST-Bund collapsed in the last few sessions from 200 to 185bp. What's behind the move? -Growth: momentum in US data deteriorated, with negative surprise too -Inflation: forward inflation delta compressed (less look at PCE this week) -Mon.policy implied reacted at this

The math checks out

@joeshortsqueeze German boomers. Bund is leading to the upside again. "Settle down, Franz"

@5ThalerBill Boomers seem to be in control tonight

I shorted #TN_F at ‘19 after the EOM bum rush on Friday but flattened one minute to close so I did t have to hold over the weekend. Probably gonna regret that “prudent and smart” decision

@joeshortsqueeze boomer vibes

@5ThalerBill Yeah. Sadly, I still honor that code 😆. That’s why I covered