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The upcoming Bitcoin halving has sparked speculation about its impact on altcoins like Ripple, Solana, and Sei. While Ripple is currently facing a bearish trend, there is still potential for recovery depending on market dynamics and investor sentiment. Solana shows signs of a bullish breakout, driven by technical and fundamental indicators, and expectations of growth in the coming months. Sei maintains a bullish market structure, with strong demand and a positive outlook, but it faces the challenge of market volatility. Overall, the future price movements of these altcoins will depend on various factors, including the broader market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Is Bitcoin Halving a Threat to Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Sei (SEI) Holders? In today’s crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) trades below $43,000 after an 8% price drop. This has ushered in an "altcoin season," with the BTC dominance falling to 47.5%. The upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving, which historically influenced price increases, is only 110 days away. The event that will reduce mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block also sparks speculation about its impact on other cryptocurrencies like Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Sei (SEI). As the market focus shifts towards these altcoins, the potential effects of halving on their value and investor sentiment remain uncertain. Ride The Wave Of Innovation With ScapesMania As the ScapesMania presale nears its completion in February, the team is working hard to secure a quick listing on tier-1 exchange platforms. There is a good probability that the token's value will increase exponentially after the listing. The team behind ScapesMania, with years of expertise, has crafted a robust post-listing marketing strategy. Buyback, burn, staking, and all the perks for holders keep attracting new adopters. Through DAO governance, backers will be able to influence and benefit from a multi-billion-dollar industry. Moreover, the token's utility is impressive. It's not another meme coin whose success relies heavily on trends and hype. ScapesMania (MANIA) is a well-balanced, meticulously designed project that acts as a gaming ecosystem. As the presale is wrapping up, you need to act fast and grab your discounted tokens now! The countdown is on – don't let this chance pass you by. Presale is Live Now – Join Now for a Chance to Benefit with MANIA ScapesMania, a player in the $376 billion gaming industry, leverages the market's growth potential. Post-exchange debut, holders can anticipate greater liquidity and easier trading. The community's excitement about the project is evident so far, with $4,500,000+ raised to date from crowd/retail contributions alone. Notably, the fundraising amount is growing by $50,000+ daily and the follower count has reached 60K+ and showcases a weekly growth of 12%. The growing interest from crypto whales with checks of $20,000+ might expedite ScapesMania's transition from niche to mainstream. ScapesMania's smart contract has received approval from prominent security-ranking firms, ensuring peace of mind for holders. Additionally, the award-winning team behind ScapesMania secured a prestigious grant from a prominent player in the blockchain industry. Furthermore, ScapesMania is notable for putting its community front and center. Driving customer engagement and making sure that everyone benefits through great tokenomics and generous rewards is where ScapesManias stands out. Make sure you don't pass up the opportunity to get the early bird discount as the presale nears its end. Be quick if you want to get your hands on those lucrative tokens before they're all gone. Presale Closing Soon – Seize Opportunities Now! Ripple (XRP): Facing a Bearish Pattern and Uncertain Future Profit-taking and a broader market’s bearish sentiment caused Ripple (XRP) to drop 10% in January. The price broke below a key support level, forming a descending triangle pattern – a bearish pattern characterized by lower highs and relatively consistent lows, often signaling a downward price movement. Ripple's (XRP) current price fluctuates between $0.563 and $0.683. The 10-day Moving Average is at $0.574, while the 100-day Moving Average stands at $0.599. Support levels are found at $0.391 and $0.511, with resistance levels at $0.752 and $0.872. Ripple's (XRP) future is a mix of growth prospects and challenges. The bearish outlook is partly driven by profit-taking as seen in high-risk profit levels in the market. However, there's still potential for recovery supported by exposure from ETFs and other positive developments. The absence of plans for a spot Ripple (XRP) ETF by major asset managers like BlackRock adds to the cautious sentiment. Ripple's (XRP) future price movement will likely be influenced by overall market dynamics and investor sentiment, with a possibility of recovery if it effectively navigates the current challenges. Solana (SOL): A Path to Potential Growth Solana (SOL) is showing signs of a potential bullish breakout driven by technical and fundamental indicators. The price of Solana (SOL) is now testing the upper trendline of a bull flag pattern, which indicates a potentially positive price movement. As of today, Solana's (SOL) price range lies between $64.84 and $132.36. The 10-day Moving Average is at $96.62, while the 100-day Moving Average is at $65.74. Support and resistance levels are set at $27.97 and $163.01, respectively, with the most ambitious target at $230.54. Solana (SOL) could approach $200 as early as March amidst growing anticipation of a spot Solana ETF and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. While the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has raised hopes for similar products for Solana (SOL), a dovish Fed could lead to a weaker US dollar, which can also benefit altcoin. However, the price trajectory of Solana (SOL) will be influenced by market dynamics and regulatory developments. Sei (SEI): Bullish Sentiment with a Hint of Caution Sei (SEI) has exhibited a strong bullish outlook on higher timeframe charts, rallying significantly from its December low to an early January peak. Although the price has retraced to a demand zone, the bullish sentiment remains intact. Sei's (SEI) price range is set between $0.582 and $0.808, with the 10-Day Moving Average hovering at $0.758 and the 100-day Moving Average marked at $0.729. Support levels are at $0.244 and $0.471, while resistance levels are at $0.924 and $1.15. Sei (SEI) is expected to continue its bullish trend, with a target of reaching $1 and higher in the coming weeks. The market structure remains firmly bullish, and demand for the token is strong. However, the enthusiasm of market participants could lead to a consolidation phase, potentially trapping Sei (SEI) within a range that could shake out overly eager bulls. The future price movement of Sei (SEI) will depend on market sentiment and the ability of bulls to maintain control amidst short-term volatility. Conclusion The crypto market undergoes significant changes - the coming Bitcoin (BTC) halving is stirring up excitement about its impact on altcoins like Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Sei (SEI). Ripple (XRP) is currently facing a bearish trend, with technical indicators suggesting a cautious market outlook, but there's potential for recovery highly depending on market dynamics and investor sentiment; Solana (SOL) exhibits signs of a bullish breakout, with expectations of growth driven by market speculation and potential macroeconomic factors; Sei (SEI) maintains a bullish market structure, with strong demand and a positive outlook, though it faces the challenge of market volatility and investor eagerness. Disclaimer: This is a sponsored article and is for informational purposes only. It does not reflect the views of Crypto Daily, nor is it intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.

The bull market in the crypto market, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC), seems to be underway based on various on-chain signals. This includes the on-chain value map, realized capitalization, and the long/short-term holders' threshold, all pointing towards a shift towards a bullish trend. The return of Bitcoin to its fair value and the increasing realized market capitalization are strong indicators of an approaching bull market, which historically aligns with BTC's halving events. In this bullish market context, it's worth keeping an eye on altcoins like Hashflow (HFT), NEAR Protocol (NEAR), Cosmos (ATOM), Arbitrum (ARB), and Aptos (APT). These altcoins offer more than just hype and promise strategic advantages for portfolio diversification as the crypto market evolves. One upcoming project to watch is ScapesMania, which is nearing completion of its presale in February. The team behind ScapesMania has a robust post-listing marketing strategy in place and aims to secure a quick listing on tier-1 exchange platforms. With the anticipation of increased token value after the listing, ScapesMania presents an opportunity for potential exponential growth. The project is well-balanced and designed as a gaming ecosystem, offering utility and long-term potential. Hashflow (HFT) is another altcoin to consider, as it has recently launched its 2.0 version, integrating Solana and becoming the first decentralized exchange (DEX) to facilitate cross-chain trading between Ethereum and Solana. With DEX aggregation services and improved RFQ technology, Hashflow offers faster trades, lower fees, and improved market entry. NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is enhancing its data availability by integrating NEAR DA and Polygon CDK, aiming to provide cost-effective solutions for developers. This integration may attract more developers and enhance the fundamental capabilities of NEAR Protocol. Cosmos (ATOM) developers have proposed reducing the inflation rate of the native token, which could potentially increase scarcity and value. However, the market's response to this proposal will determine Cosmos' price trajectory. Arbitrum (ARB) is currently dominating the rollup market for Ethereum scaling solutions, but concerns arise regarding its upcoming token unlock. The release of a significant number of ARB tokens into circulation may impact price stability and introduce volatility. Aptos (APT) is set to unlock a substantial amount of tokens, which could influence its price and overall market dynamics. Increased trading volume in recent months indicates heightened interest in Aptos, which may help mitigate the potential impact of the token unlock. Overall, the crypto market is experiencing signs of a bullish trend, with Bitcoin leading the way. Investors should carefully evaluate the potential of altcoins like Hashflow (HFT), NEAR Protocol (NEAR), Cosmos (ATOM), Arbitrum (ARB), and Aptos (APT), considering their unique features, market dynamics, and upcoming events. It's important to conduct thorough research and assess risk before making any investment decisions.

The recent on-chain data suggests that whales, the influential investors of Bitcoin, USDT, and USDC, may soon begin accumulating these assets, signaling a potential bullish reversal in the crypto market. Despite the ongoing bearish trend, Santiment's market intelligence platform has identified this accumulation as a crucial indicator for a possible recovery. With the distribution tiers for Bitcoin and the top stablecoins seeing a slight downturn in shark and whale holdings, there is optimism that strategic accumulation by large holders could pave the way for a bullish trend to reclaim last week's 2-year high. Moreover, the current supply of Bitcoin, Tether, and USD Coin represents the smallest quantity since June 2023, further indicating the potential for a turnaround. As traders closely monitor these developments, the whales' accumulation of these assets ahead of the Bitcoin halving in just under 14 weeks is seen as a significant factor in predicting another bull cycle similar to late 2023.

Whale Accumulation Signals Bullish Reversal Amid Ongoing Bearish Trend On-chain data suggests whales may soon begin accumulating BTC, USDT, and USDC. This signals a bullish trend despite the current market downtrend. Shark and whale holdings of Bitcoin have reached a six-year low. Amid the current bearish trend sweeping through the crypto market, leading market intelligence platform Santiment has identified a potential key bullish signal. Santiment sees the optimistic signal in the potential activities of influential investors of Bitcoin (BTC), Tether (USDT), and USD Coin (USDC). In a recent tweet, Santiment highlighted that whale accumulation of Bitcoin, USDT, and USDC could be a crucial indicator for a possible recovery. The market sentiment analysis suggested that strategic accumulation by large holders may pave the way for a bullish reversal to reclaim last week’s 2-year high. It examined the current distribution tiers for Bitcoin and the top stablecoins, revealing a slight downturn in the shark and whale holdings. Specifically, Santiment’s analysis highlighted that wallets with 10-10K Bitcoin (BTC) presently constitute 66.27% of the total supply. This marked the lowest percentage since September 26, 2018. Meanwhile, the report underscored that the current supply represents the smallest quantity of BTC since June 20, 2023, with 12.99 million BTC. Notably, these tokens hold a market value exceeding $530 billion. Similarly, the shark and whale tiers for Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) showed interesting dynamics. Wallets holding 100,000 to 10 million USDT represent 33.98% of the supply. Those holding 100,000 to 10 million USDC account for 35.49% of the supply. Over the past six months, these wallets have decreased their holdings by 4.02% and 3.05%, respectively. Despite the current bearish trend, Santiment remains optimistic about the potential for another bull cycle, as witnessed in late 2023. Significantly, with the Bitcoin halving just under 14 weeks away, whales’ accumulation of BTC, USDT, and USDC is a key indicator that many traders are closely watching.

The recent dip in Bitcoin's price after the approval of 10 spot Bitcoin ETF products by the SEC is not caused by Grayscale's GBTC selling Bitcoin, according to Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant. While GBTC has sold around 60,000 Bitcoins, other Bitcoin ETFs have purchased approximately 72,000 Bitcoins, offsetting the sales. Moreno believes that the price volatility is due to selling by Bitcoin holders, such as short-term traders and whales, who took profits after last year's surge. On-chain data suggests that both derivatives leverage and spot profit taking may have driven the price drop, and the increase in open interest in futures and options markets indicates that leverage is becoming a more dominant force. Currently, Bitcoin is up 0.58% in the last 24 hours to $41,543.

Bitcoin Price Action Explained: Here's Real Reason Why BTC Dipped After ETF Approval 2024 has already proven to be a wild trip for Bitcoin investors. In what was likely the most exciting financial product launch in history, the SEC approved 10 spot Bitcoin ETF products for trading in U.S. marketplaces. In reaction, BTC prices rose to a new multi-year high, reaching $49,102. The market then fell 18% over the weekend, reaching fresh year-to-date lows of $40,236. As with any important event, holders of Bitcoins enjoy debating whether it was priced in or not. In this regard, Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, debunks the widely circulated narrative that the Bitcoin price drop was caused by Grayscale's GBTC selling Bitcoin. There's a narrative circulating that the current Bitcoin price correction is due to GBTC selling Bitcoin. IS NOT. GBTC has sold about 60K Bitcoin. The other ETFs combined have net purchased about 72K Bitcoin. The selling has come from Bitcoin holders (short-term traders and…— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) January 19, 2024 Before being converted to an ETF from a trust, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was one of the only options for stock traders in the United States to obtain exposure to Bitcoin price swings without having to purchase the actual cryptocurrency. While GBTC has seen remarkable outflows after its uplisting into an ETF, a chunk of these have been from investors moving to lower-fee ETFs. Moreno highlighted that, while GBTC sold approximately 60,000 Bitcoins, other Bitcoin ETFs net purchased roughly 72,000 Bitcoins, thus offsetting the sales of BTC from Grayscale's GBTC. He attributes the volatility in Bitcoin's price to selling by Bitcoin holders (short-term traders and whales) who took profits following last year's surge, noting that the ETF approval might just be the "sell-the-news" event. What on-chain data says According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's price drop might have been driven by both derivatives leverage and spot profit taking. However, several metrics in both the on-chain and derivatives domains suggest that a non-trivial portion of Bitcoin investors did treat the ETF approval as a sell-the-news event. While there are other key driving factors behind the interim volatility, both futures and options markets have seen a meaningful uptick in open interest (OI) since mid-October, according to Glassnode. Open interest in both markets remains around multi-year highs, showing that leverage is rising and becoming a more dominant force in markets. At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.58% in the last 24 hours to $41,543, per CoinMarketCap data.

Amid their bankruptcy processes, cryptocurrency firms FTX and Celsius Network have been actively divesting their digital asset portfolios. Celsius Network recently transferred 56.8 million Polygon (MATIC) tokens, valued at $44.5 million, to crypto exchanges. This comes after the movement of 34.09 million MATIC, equivalent to $25.7 million, to Binance. The sell-off trend continues, with FTX and Alameda liquidating over $15 million in cryptocurrencies. The US Court of Appeal has approved an independent examiner to investigate the collapse of FTX, which has raised implications for the cryptocurrency industry. The appointment of an examiner will address pressing issues while safeguarding the public's interest.

If you missed out on Bitcoin's rise in 2021, don't worry. There are several alternative coins that offer a second chance. Coins like Solana (SOL), Aptos (APT), Sei (SEI), Xai (XAI), and Blur (BLUR) are emerging as potential options for investors. These coins have unique growth prospects and provide new opportunities for those who missed out on Bitcoin's rise. So, if you're looking to ride the wave of innovation and explore new possibilities, consider these alternative coins as a potential investment.

Cardano (ADA), the eighth-largest cryptocurrency, is experiencing significant growth with numerous developments and upgrades. According to the latest report from Cardano builder Input Output Global (IOG), 157 projects have been launched, with 1,319 projects currently being built on the Cardano platform. Native tokens now total 9.45 million across 93,021 token policies, and there have been a total of 83.4 million transactions on the Cardano network. Recent releases and upgrades include Marlowe 0.3.0, Hydra version 0.15.0, node v.8.7.3, and Lace wallet version 1.8. The ledger team has also introduced new features, while the Mithril team has made advancements in client implementation and end-to-end testing. Project Catalyst is reaching the end of its community review moderation period, with over 70,000 moderations submitted by active level 2 moderators. Additionally, IOG will support a collaborative workshop with the School of Informatics Edinburgh and prominent industry and academic specialists to explore the potential of quantum technology in financial systems. At the time of writing, Cardano's ADA coin was trading at $0.516, representing a 3.62% increase in the last 24 hours.

What's Going On With Cardano (ADA)? This Latest Report Says Lot Cardano, the eighth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is booming with several developments and new upgrades. According to the most recent weekly report released by Cardano builder Input Output Global (IOG), 157 projects have been launched, with 1,319 projects now being built on Cardano. What’s going down on Cardano? Check out this week’s development update on Essential #Cardano and stay abreast of all the latest developments in core technology, wallets and services, smart contracts, and scaling and governance. t.co/QfHIL2yUTV— Input Output (@InputOutputHK) January 19, 2024 Native tokens total 9.45 million across 93,021 token policies. Plutus v1 scripts are at 6,332, while Plutus v2 scripts are now 17,531. Total transactions on the Cardano network are now 83.4 million. The beginning of 2024 has seen new releases and upgrades. The Marlowe team just announced the release of Marlowe 0.3.0, which includes many milestones. The first Hydra release of 2024, version 0.15.0, has gone live. Cardano also released node v.8.7.3, which fixes a minor issue with the Ouroboros network. The Lace wallet has also been upgraded to version 1.8. According to IOG, the ledger team has introduced several features in recent weeks, including new ledger events, an increase in the URL length limit, consensus queries and JSON instances. The Mithril team has also finalized the client's implementation in Explorer, allowing for direct certificate verification from the browser. In addition, the team upgraded the devnet to support the Conway era and enabled the Mithril era marker reader on the Cardano chain during the end-to-end testing. In addition, Project Catalyst is nearing the end of its community review moderation period. More than 70,000 moderations have been submitted by around 250 active level 2 moderators. In the last 15 years, a rush of advancements in the field of quantum-enhanced protocols has proposed new ways in which financial systems may benefit from quantum technology. In this regard, IOG will support an upcoming collaborative workshop with the School of Informatics Edinburgh, IOG Chief Scientist Aggelos Kiayias, Ethereum researcher Justin Drake and other prominent industrial and academic specialists. At the time of writing, Cardano's ADA coin was up 3.62% in the last 24 hours to trade at $0.516.

Bitcoin BTCUSD experienced a 14.3% loss after reaching a two-year high following the anticipated approval of ETFs in the U.S. However, analysts and traders believe that the overall bullish trend remains unchallenged, despite some investors cashing out in sub-$50,000 territory. Gabor Gurbacs, a veteran in the cryptocurrency space and strategy advisor at Tether Limited and VanEck, stated that the transfer of Bitcoin from weak hands to strong hands is nothing new. He is optimistic about the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs and predicts a 10x-50x increase in accessibility for asset managers within a year. On-chain analysts have determined that long-term holders typically hold onto their assets for 1.5-2 years before taking profits, a pattern that has remained consistent since 2014. This consistency in holding patterns is noteworthy, indicating the strong hands of long-term holders. Glassnode researchers have also confirmed that long-term holders have enjoyed a 55% profit on their deposits given the current prices. Overall, analysts view this metric positively in January 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) Leaving Weak Hands, VanEck's Gabor Gurbacs Says Bitcoin 📷BTCUSD, the largest cryptocurrency, lost 14.3% after setting a two-year high inspired by the long-anticipated ETFs approval in the U.S. Despite some investors deciding to take profits in sub-$50,000 waters, the core bullish trend remains unchallenged, analysts and traders say. Bitcoin 📷BTCUSD flows to strong hands: VanEck's, Tether advisor is not surprised As Bitcoins 📷BTCUSD are changing owners, "strong hands" allocate the coins being sold by weak ones. This situation does not look unusual to cryptocurrency veteran Gabor Gurbacs, strategy advisor at Tether Limited and VanEck, he said on Jan. 19 on X. Bitcoin is flowing from weak hands to strong hands. Same old. Nothing new.— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) January 19, 2024 The whole situation demonstrates "nothing new," he admitted. As covered by U.Today previously, Gurbacs is excited by the potential effects of Bitcoin ETFs being green-lit by the U.S. regulators. He foresees a 10x-50x increase in the accessibility of Bitcoin 📷BTCUSD as an investment instrument for various classes of asset managers within a single year. As of printing time, Bitcoin 📷BTCUSD is changing hands at $41,539, being up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours. The BTC trading volume saw a 17% decline in the corresponding period. How strong are these hands? Meanwhile, on-chain analysts managed to estimate the "strength" of long-term holders' hands. As per the research of a pseudonymous Bitcoin 📷BTCUSD analyst who goes by @TXMCtrades on X, most of them hold their assets for 1.5-2 years before taking profits. The typical age of a coin (how long it sits idle) spent by a Long-Term Holder is about 1.5 to 2 years old, and it has been this way since as early as 2014. Some of this is an artifact of bull runs being 3.5-4 years apart but the consistency is still interesting IMO. #BTC pic.x.com/7pmufvmexd— 𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 (@TXMCtrades) January 20, 2024 The author and host of Alpha Beta Soup channel on trading indicated that this pattern has been valid for at least the past 10 years. By contrast, taking profits after 3.5-4 years of HODLing is an "artifact of bull runs." As covered by U.Today previously, the average long-term holder enjoys a 55% profit on their deposit given the current prices, Glassnode researchers said. This metric looks "meaningfully positive" to analysts in January 2024.

Ripple has filed its response opposing the SEC's motion to compel, stating that the SEC's requests for audited financial statements, post-complaint contracts, and information about XRP institutional sales proceeds are unnecessary and untimely. Ripple argues that the SEC had ample opportunity to seek this discovery during fact discovery and now lacks good cause to do so. Furthermore, Ripple points out that the SEC previously claimed that post-complaint conduct was irrelevant to the case and should not be allowed to reverse its cause. Ripple also raises concerns about the potential for lengthy ancillary litigation if the legality of post-complaint sales is adjudicated. The XRP community has reacted positively to Ripple's resistance against the SEC's demands, hoping for a favorable resolution to the lawsuit in 2024.

Astar, a parachain on the Polkadot ecosystem, has been steadily making its mark with impressive numbers and genuine growth. Boasting a 650,000-strong community of ASTR enthusiasts, Astar's appeal within the Web3 space is on the rise. With a staggering 3.4 billion ASTR tokens, over 63% of the circulating supply, staked within the ecosystem, faith in the network's future is evident. Astar's focus on tangible applications is demonstrated through its partnerships with industry giants like Toyota and the Japanese Railway operator. With dApps bridging the gap between theory and practice, Astar is steadily growing with consistent user adoption and ecosystem development. The upcoming Astar 2.0 upgrade is not just marketing jargon; it signifies a carefully planned evolution to attract more developers and enhance user engagement. Astar's narrative is about diligently carving its path in the Web3 landscape, one step at a time, supported by its impressive numbers and real-world collaborations. The groundwork for sustained success is undeniably being laid.

Chris Brunet, an independent investigative journalist, exposed Harvard President Claudine Gay's history of plagiarism and data fabrication. In an attempt to profit from his findings, Brunet placed a bet on Polymarket, expecting that Gay would no longer be president of Harvard by the end of 2023. Unfortunately, Gay resigned a few days into the new year, causing Brunet to lose the bet. Despite this setback, Brunet remains interested in monetizing his impactful work through trading. However, there are ethical concerns regarding journalists having a personal stake in the outcome of their stories, as it may undermine journalistic integrity. The legality of using prediction markets with insider information is also ambiguous, with potential implications for insider trading laws. Prediction markets have the potential to become a credible source of information, but their regulation is still uncertain. Despite not making money from prediction markets so far, Brunet believes in the concept of monetizing the wisdom of the crowd, though it is still early for the industry.

He Exposed Harvard President's Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story Chris Brunet knew he had a big story, so he bet it would make a big impact.The independent investigative journalist uncovered now-former Harvard President Claudine Gay's history of plagiarism in December 2023 and her data fabrication the year before. For many reporters, publishing such explosive exposés would be its own reward, but Brunet wanted to profit from the fallout of his findings.Late last month, he went to Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform, and made a bet. He stood to win $1,400 worth of cryptocurrency if Gay was longer be president of Harvard at the end of the year.Close, but no cigar. In the end, Gay didn't step down as Harvard President by the end of 2023, as the prediction market asked, but rather a few days into the new year. While he had been directionally correct, Brunet lost."I've never made money on prediction markets. I'm down. It's a hobby rather than something I actually make money on," Brunet said in an interview with CoinDesk. "In the past, when I wrote articles, I used to make firm predictions. But I got fooled so many times with prediction markets, so I'm very humble."By his own admission, he's a better journalist than trader. Even so, Brunet said he'd still love to monetize his otherwise impactful work by trading on it."The only reason I don't bet big on Polymarket right now is that I don't have a lot of money. So I can't really justify putting a huge bankroll in Polymarket," he told CoinDesk. "If I did have a huge bankroll, and there were markets about my ongoing investigations, I certainly would be betting on that."If, like Brunet, you're bold enough to write something that might lead to an arrest and federal charges – he was first to name crypto trader Avraham Eisenberg as the alleged exploiter of Mango Markets, which led to Eisenberg’s arrest in Puerto Rico – or the resignation of one of the most powerful figures in academia, why not enjoy some financial upside?After all, if prediction markets are to become, as their proponents claim, the ultimate arbiters of truth because they harness the power of the crowd, giving people a chance to put their money where their mouths are, they will need somewhere to start.There's also an argument that prediction market journalism isn't all that different from what activist short sellers do: use a process similar to investigative journalism to find dirt on a company, take a short position and then publish the results for the market to digest.A future, prediction market-oriented media could even, as Scott Alexander of Slate Star Codex fame writes, do away with the industry cancer of fake news and clickbait."In a prediction market, once you're wrong a couple of times, traders will stop updating on your reports and you'll lose most of your power to move the market," he wrote.A front-running 1980s journalistYet, lingering on Brunet's mind is whether this is all ethical."One big question I have, still somewhat unresolved, is the ethics of having a personal stake in the outcome of your story, akin to insider trading, or knowing information before the markets do," he said.Can you place a prediction market bet on something you're so closely invested in? Could Gay, or the Harvard Corporation board, hypothetically trade on Polymarket a day before she resigned?"It strikes me that betting on the outcome of one's stories presents a conflict of interest. The journalist now has a stake beyond informing the public or serving the public interest," Jane E. Kirtley, a professor of media ethics and law at the University of Minnesota's Hubbard School of Journalism, told CoinDesk in an email interview.Kirtley says she finds it troubling because it "undermines the compact that journalists have with the public: acting independently and putting the interests of the public first and foremost."Kirtley brings up the 1980s-era case of Foster Winans, a former Wall Street Journal reporter who leaked the contents of upcoming, potentially market-moving "Heard on the Street" columns to a stockbroker."I think from an ethical perspective, it is difficult to argue that Winans' conduct was consistent with ethical norms in journalism," she said. "He had a personal financial interest in the impact of the 'Heard on the Street' columns he wrote, and he did not disclose that to his readers or his employer."At a minimum, Kirtley said, journalists who bet on the outcome of their stories "should be transparent about it -- certainly with the journalist's employer (if any), and also with the public."For his part, Brunet is quite clear with his readers about exactly what he's doing. "I don't believe ‘unbiased journalism' exists, hence why the tagline of my Substack is ''opinionated investigative journalism,'" he posted on X in December, while disclosing exactly how much he'd profit should Gay have been fired before the end of 2023."I wear my bias on my sleeve," he continued.What does the SEC think?And how about the legality? That's where it gets complicated.Winans, in the eyes of the court, had breached the duty of confidentiality he owed the WSJ by front-running its daily publication schedule, finding him and his co-conspirators guilty of mail and wire fraud.The information was still confidential until it was published, the court found.(This did raise significant First Amendment concerns at the time, and the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, where Kirtley was a director, was part of an amicus brief arguing these issues).For prediction markets, things are more murky."There is no clear answer as to whether betting on prediction markets with inside information constitutes insider trading under U.S. law," Florida-based digital assets attorney John Montague told CoinDesk in an interview."It may depend on whether prediction markets are considered ‘securities’ for the purposes of insider trading law, and whether the person betting on the prediction market is in possession of material, nonpublic information and is using it for personal benefit," Montague continued.Montague said the current statute on the books (15 U.S.C. § 78u-1) imposes civil penalties for insider trading involving securities.But it's unclear if prediction markets are classified as securities under this law, Montague says, and thus under the purview of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (which has signaled it deems most crypto assets to be securities). If so, using insider information in prediction markets could constitute insider trading."I could foresee a situation in which the SEC establishes such marketplaces as unregistered securities and thus expands the SEC’s jurisdiction to prediction markets at which such time some of the insider trading penalties could be available," he said.…or does someone else have jurisdiction?For its part, Polymarket, which runs on the Polygon blockchain network and settles bets in crypto, prohibits U.S. persons from using the platform and isn't available in the country.On Kalshi, which is registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and settles in dollars, there is a prohibition to trade on material nonpublic information."There is currently no specific instance that I am aware of where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exerted its authority over insider trading specifically related to prediction markets. It is certainly a possibility that the CFTC could choose to do so in the future," Montague added."Although no precedent exists yet, it is highly likely that prediction markets could fall within the CFTC's jurisdiction, giving it the potential to regulate such activities under its mandate to combat fraud and manipulation," he continued.Kalshi also prohibits employees of data providers (ranging from the National Weather Service to Billboard magazine), which may have a slight lead on getting data before it becomes public, from trading.It should also be noted that the CFTC only got powers in 2010 to pursue insider trading cases under the Dodd-Frank Act, which was meant to limit financial risk.Prior to the act, the CFTC's authority to regulate insider trading in commodities markets was limited, focusing mainly on its own personnel and those of exchanges, but Dodd-Frank expanded the regulator's powers, allowing it to address a broader range of insider trading activities, including those involving use of confidential information.Since then, the CFTC settled its first insider trading case in 2016 and its fourth in 2020. In comparison, the SEC brought 43 insider trading cases against 93 individuals in 2022.Still a believerDespite not making money so far with prediction markets, Brunet said he is still a believer in the idea of monetizing the wisdom of the crowd – the most accurate gauge of truth, according to proponents of prediction markets – and that it's still early for the industry.Losing bet aside, Brunet said his investigation into Gay has done wonders for his subscriber count – much more than his investigation into Mango Markets' alleged exploiter."I got 300 subscribers from the [Mango Markets] story," he said. "And in comparison, for the Harvard story, I went from 5,700 to 8,500."Brunet said he's become “somewhat pigeonholed" after his success in reporting on academia."I almost wish I could return to writing about other topics. However, I receive many tips about academia, and my audience, which is largely academic, seems very interested in this area," he continued.When he eventually branches out, Brunet said, he plans to launch a Substack newsletter covering central bank digital currencies."We're not approaching it from a right-wing conspiracy perspective, but rather from a standpoint advocating the ethos of decentralization, which contrasts with CBDCs," he said. "We are highly critical of CBDCs, and there aren't many publications specifically opposing them." CoinDeskCrypto Read more from CoinDesk

@Fayebell34 "Karrier One's expansion into retail radio and mobile plans, fueled by Sui's investment, demonstrates a forward-thinking approach to addressing connectivity challenges."

Already a leading player in DePIN technology, Karrier One will utilize the new investment from Sui to augment its offerings with an array of new services, such as retail radio deployments and innovative mobile phone plans along with KNS, delivering vital infrastructure to underserved areas. A pivotal aspect of this work involves leveraging Karrier One’s advanced radio technology to tap into unused wireless spectrum, primarily from large telecom companies, which are often reluctant to incur the hefty capital expenditures required to build the infrastructure in certain regions of the US and abroad. As a result, a vast portion of the spectrum is left under-utilized. Karrier One addresses this gap by monetizing these signals efficiently and effectively to promote sustainable economic growth and inclusive connectivity. #Bitcoin

@JefferyKayla "Kudos to Serenity Shield for taking a proactive stance against data vulnerabilities. This new StrongBox® feature is a welcome addition."

Paris, France, January 12th, 2024, Chainwire – Decentralized messaging turns StrongBox® into a comprehensive privacy hub for data storage and communication. With fully encrypted data that is never stored on centralized servers, Serenity Shield creates a service for web2 and web3 users alike. Serenity Shield, a multi-chain project delivering secure data storage and digital inheritance solutions, is releasing a brand-new StrongBox® dApp feature — a decentralized private messaging system. This latest addition to Serenity Shield’s suite of products is designed to eliminate central points of data vulnerability, protecting user data from security breaches and unauthorized access. StrongBox’s® new feature is a direct response to the data leaks widely reported on centralized messaging applications last year, such as when Line messaging app leaked over 300,000 personal data entries. #CoinEx

@bradfordbonn61 "Crypto Long & Short" is positioned as a valuable resource, delivering weekly insights, news, and analysis specifically tailored for professional investors in the cryptocurrency domain.

"You are reading Crypto Long & Short, our weekly newsletter with insights, news, and analysis for the professional investor. Subscribe here to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday. Of course, filing the ETF shell does not necessarily mean a launch."

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, has initiated a strategic move by initiating the process of selling $216M worth of MicroStrategy stock options. These stock options, awarded back in 2014, amounting to 310,000 units, are set to expire in April. This decision demonstrates Saylor's careful consideration for the future and aims to optimize the company's financial stance without relying solely on cryptocurrency investments like Bitcoin (BTC).

Michael Saylor Commences Plan to Sell $216M Worth of MicroStrategy Stock Options The document shows that Saylor proposed the sale of 310,000 stock option awards granted in 2014, which will expire in April. #BTC #Bitcoin

The latest data from CoinShares reveals a remarkable surge in the assets under management (AUM) of crypto funds, which doubled to a staggering $52 billion within a year. This remarkable growth, with Bitcoin leading the charge, highlights the increasing confidence and interest from investors in the cryptocurrency market. #CryptoFunds #AssetManagement #BitcoinGrowth

Bitcoin leads charge as crypto fund AUMs double to $52 billion Data from asset management company CoinShares shows that crypto funds rose 134% in assets under management (AUM) from 2022 to 2023. In 2022, investors had $22.3 billion in crypto exposure through funds. This number was $52.1 billion until December 22, according to the latest numbers shared by CoinShares. #BTC #Bitcoin

@bythenight According to the post, it is predicted that the price of CBOT soybeans may experience a decline, with a possible range between $12.86-3/4 and $12.91.

CBOT soybeans may fall into $12.86-3/4 to $12.91 range #Futures

State Street Bank & Trust Company of Hong Kong successfully executed the first foreign dollar/won trade, marking a significant milestone as South Korean authorities officially opened the interbank market to foreign financial institutions under a pilot programme. This move presents exciting opportunities for global participants in the Forex market, fostering potential growth and increased accessibility.

State Street makes first foreign dollar/won trade under new plan - sources State Street Bank & Trust Company of Hong Kong made the first dollar/won trade after South Korean authorities opened the interbank market to foreign financial institutions under a pilot programme on Tuesday #ForexMarket

According to the recent data, the dollar has experienced a significant increase of 0.79% against the Japanese yen, marking the largest one-day percentage gain since December 11, 2023. This positive shift puts an end to a four-session streak of losses and reaches the highest rate at 5 pm in New York since December 26, 2023. #forextrading

Dollar Gains 0.79% to 141.99 Yen — Data Talk Dollar/Japanese yen: 141.99 Japanese yen per dollar (0.0070 dollar per Japanese yen) Today the dollar gained 0.79% vs. the Japanese yen Largest one-day percentage gain since Monday, Dec. 11, 2023 Snaps a four session losing streak Highest five pm New York rate since Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023 #forextrading

The dollar index experienced a significant increase of 0.8% on Tuesday due to profit-taking on short trades following the unexpectedly dovish Dec. 12-13 Fed meeting. This led to a decline in Treasury yields and rate pricing, while risk-taking reached extreme levels. In anticipation of this week's crucial U.S. labor market and ISM releases and FOMC meeting minutes, traders are looking for hot US data to push the dollar to post-FOMC high. The impact on other currencies is evident, with sterling being weighed down by rising UST yields as UK-US rate spreads diminish, and the Swiss franc rebounding from extremes as traders await the key U.S. data. #forextrader

COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD nearly halves Dec Fed pivot rally pre-key US data UST yield riseweighs on sterlingas UK-US rate spreads attenuate Swiss francsnaps back from extremes ahead of key U.S. data Dollar's rebound vs yenneeds hot US data to hit post-FOMC high The dollar index rose 0.8% on Tuesday as profit-taking on short trades entered after the unexpectedly dovish Dec. 12-13 Fed meeting sent Treasury yields and rate pricing tumbling and risk-taking soaring to extremes ahead of this week's crucial U.S. labor market and ISM releases and FOMC meeting minutes. #forextrader