Seth

Shipping to Chile and Latam is a critical step in hemispheric defense as well.

There is clear room for sulfuric acid arbitrage by American firms supplying import-dependent LatAm countries—especially Chile, Peru, and Brazil—driven by the China export ban (effective May 1, 2026) and parallel Middle East sulfur disruptions. Why the opportunity exists Massive price spread: LatAm spot prices (especially Chile) have more than doubled. Chile's CFR Mejillones benchmark rose from $190/mt (Feb 2026) to $300–$380/mt by mid-April, with recent offers/fixes at $430–$470/mt CFR for H2 cargoes. Spot volumes in Chile/Brazil are seeing even higher premiums amid panic buying. In contrast, North American/US Gulf prices started much lower ($155–$205/mt in March–April assessments) and have risen (Platts CFR US Gulf hit $400/mt by early May) but remain well below LatAm delivered levels. Even after transport, margins of $100–$200+/mt are realistic on spot or uncovered H2 volumes. Structural supply gap in LatAm: Chile (world's largest acid importer, 4M mt/year total consumption) lost its biggest supplier overnight—China provided >1M mt annually (37% of imports, supporting ~20% of copper output via heap-leach/SX-EW). Shipments to Chile hit zero in March. Peru (2nd-largest supplier at ~24%) is already maxed out. No quick replacement from Japan/Korea/Europe due to limited spare capacity and long, costly hauls. H1 2026 was mostly covered under old contracts; H2 is wide open. Smaller miners and spot buyers are most exposed. US relative advantage: The US has stronger domestic production (refinery byproduct + virgin acid from sulfur burning), diversified chains, and lower immediate exposure than LatAm. US firms aren't facing the same mining/fertilizer crunch domestically, freeing up volumes for export. Mexico (already a small US supplier) and regional logistics help. Feasibility and logistics Shipping is doable but specialized: Sulfuric acid requires chemical tankers or ISO tanks (corrosive/hazardous). US Gulf-to-Chile/Peru routes are established for chemicals; freight adds ~$50–150/mt (depending on vessel availability and insurance), which the current spread easily covers. It's not trivial—capacity is limited and rates have risen amid broader disruptions—but not prohibitive for equipped traders or producers. Who can play: US chemical traders, integrated producers (e.g., those with refinery/smelter acid or sulfur-burning plants), or fertilizer giants with export arms. Diversion of domestic or nearby volumes (plus any ramp-up) to high-premium LatAm spot markets. Some European diversion is already happening (e.g., Brazil imports +800% YoY), but US proximity and capacity give American firms an edge on certain routes. Risks and limits (not unlimited arbitrage)Global tightness is spreading: US prices are climbing fast too (sulfur feedstock costs up sharply from Hormuz issues). Margins could compress if US acid gets bid up. Competition: Peru (regional), Europe, and others are pivoting. Majors like Codelco have some captive supply. Duration: Ban expected through end-2026 at least, but could ease if domestic Chinese needs change or Middle East stabilizes. Execution hurdles: Contracts, force majeure claims, and hazmat regs add friction. It's more "opportunistic trading on spot/premium" than pure risk-free arb. Bottom line: Strong short-to-medium-term window (especially H2 2026) for US firms with logistics expertise to capture $100s/mt spreads supplying Chilean/Peruvian copper miners and Brazilian fertilizer buyers. This is exactly the kind of dislocation where American traders/producers can step in while LatAm scrambles. No evidence of massive US export surge yet (it's early post-ban), but analysts universally call replacement "difficult" and prices are screaming for alternatives. If you're a firm in this space, the spot market in Chile is the prime target right now.

China’s financial regulator advised the country’s largest banks to temporarily suspend new loans to five refiners recently sanctioned by the US over their ties to Iranian oil, according to people familiar with the matter. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 President Trump says Elon Musk, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Apple's Tim Cook, and other top US CEOs are on Air Force One heading to China.

With the implementation of the Uniform Electronic Wills Act on January 1, 2025, and the subsequent electronic storage laws effective January 1, 2026, North Carolina has significantly modernized its probate landscape. Because of these complex shifts—such as new rules on electronic signatures and the removal of the "presumption of revocation" for electronically stored wills—mastering state-specific probate law is now critical for new practitioners. To ensure competency in this digital era, the North Carolina Board of Law Examiners has established the following requirement: New Licensure Requirement With the launch of the NextGen UBE in North Carolina in July 2028, all applicants—whether applying by examination or UBE Transfer—must successfully complete the North Carolina Component Exam on Decedents’ Estates and Trusts. This requirement ensures that every new attorney is equipped to navigate North Carolina’s specific statutes, including the nuances of electronic will execution, storage, and revocation, which differ from the general principles tested on the national NextGen UBE.

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@simpsoka It doesn't efficiently change between modes so it burns through your usage capacity, especially if you have an automation running.

Windows Codex users. Tell me the good bad and ugly. Where do we need to dig in?

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Siemens and other European tech companies have made headway on reshaping regulation for artificial intelligence in the EU they say is putting them behind rivals in the US and China bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@vonderleyen #HappyED

It's Europe Day! Today, we celebrate all that Europe stands for. And we celebrate all of us, the citizens of Europe. Because all together, we are Europe. Happy Europe Day!

Shell Reports Nearly $7 Billion Profit Amid ‘Unprecedented Disruption’ nytimes.com/2026/05/07/bus…

Product shipments were driven by a record for exports of distillates, with 1.9 million barrels a day departing from the US in the week ended May 1.

US exports of oil products rose to a record high last week as the nation continues to help make up for disruptions to fuel supplies sparked by the Iran war. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Four decades ago, Iran and the U.S. were on a collision course over oil shipping, an episode with inexact parallels to today’s war wsj.com/world/middle-e… via @WSJ