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@garyblack00 @grok What evidence is Gary Black relying on to argue that unsupervised driving will rapidly become commoditized?

Every couple of months I post our top positions at @FirstWaveFund and since we sent our May investor letter a few days ago I don’t mind sharing those positions... here are the top 12 in alphabetical order: AAOI, ALAB, APP, CRDO, HIMS, HROW, IREN, MELI, MU, NBIS, RDDT, TMDX All estimates are my own. Every company mentioned in this post has risks so please do your own research and form your own opinions, thesis and conviction. Please don't waste your time asking me where I'd be buying or trimming... because I won't answer. I spend alot of time building our models and thinking through all the possible variables and catalysts that will impact the reported financials but in reality trying to predict revenues, margins, dilution and earnings in CY2028 or FY2029 is not easy. $AAOI CY2025 revenues = $455M CY2028 revenues = $10.70B 3 year revenue CAGR = 186% CY2025 EPS = -$0.26 CY2026 EPS = $1.04 CY2028 EPS = $10.40 2 year EPS CAGR from CY2026 through CY2028 = 216% Currently trading at 15.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $ALAB CY2025 revenues = $852M CY2028 revenues = $3.88B 3 year revenue CAGR = 66% CY2025 EPS = 1.84 CY2028 EPS = $8.55 3 year EPS CAGR = 67% Currently trading at 48.7 CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $APP CY2025 revenues = $5.48B CY2028 revenues = $16.67B 3 year revenue CAGR = 45% CY2025 EPS = $10.64 CY2028 EPS = $37.06 3 year EPS CAGR = 52% Currently trading at 12.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $CRDO FY2025 revenues = $436M FY2028 revenues = $4.11B 3 year revenue CAGR = 111% FY2025 EPS = $0.70 FY2028 EPS = $10.68 3 year EPS CAGR = 148% Currently trading at 25.5x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $HIMS CY2025 revenues = $2.35B CY2028 revenues = $5.81B 3 year revenue CAGR = 35% CY2025 EPS = $1.10 CY2028 EPS = $2.55 3 year EPS CAGR = 32% Currently trading at 13.9x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $HROW CY2025 revenues = $272M CY2028 revenues = $928B 3 year revenue CAGR = 50% CY2025 EPS = -$0.14 CY2026 EPS = $1.09 CY2028 EPS = $5.64 2 year EPS CAGR = 127% Currently trading at 7.6x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $IREN FY2025 revenues = $510M FY2028 revenues = $6.60B FY2029 revenues = $9.88B 4 year revenue CAGR = 110% FY2025 EPS = $0.35 FY2028 EPS = $0.68 FY2029 EPS = $1.33 4 year EPS CAGR = 40% Currently trading at 45.1x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $MELI CY2025 revenues = $28.89B CY2028 revenues = $65.81B 3 year revenue CAGR = 32% CY2025 EPS = $39.40 CY2028 EPS = $90.14 3 year EPS CAGR = 32% Currently trading at 18.1x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $MU FY2025 revenues = $37.38B FY2028 revenues = $274.18B 3 year revenue CAGR = 94% FY2025 EPS = $8.29 FY2028 EPS = $151.32 3 year EPS CAGR = 163% Currently trading at 7.5x FY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $NBIS CY2025 revenues = $530M CY2028 revenues = $22.83B 3 year revenue CAGR = 250% CY2028 EPS = $5.42 CY2031 EPS = $23.96 Currently trading at 47.8x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) 3 year EPS CAGR from CY2028 through CY2031 = 64% $RDDT CY2025 revenues = $2.20B CY2028 revenues = $6.24B 3 year revenue CAGR = 42% CY2025 EPS = $4.54 CY2028 EPS = $14.15 3 year EPS CAGR = 46% Currently trading at 12.3x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) $TMDX CY2025 revenues = $605M CY2028 revenues = $1.34B 3 year revenue CAGR = 30% CY2025 EPS = $2.63 CY2028 EPS = $6.33 3 year EPS CAGR = 34% Currently trading at 12.4x CY2028 EPS (not including cash/debt) NFA. DYOR. *I own all of these stocks personally and so does @FirstWaveFund **If you see any glaring mistakes in my numbers feel free to comment below and I'll double check my work/models. ENJOY THE LONG WEEKEND. GO SOCCER!!!!!