AGS Bets

Got incredibly lucky with this one as players not starting but coming on late are the absolute bane of AGS bettors but we will take it!

Ipswich - Millwall 2.5 u Ivan Azon 3.00 (skybet) would take down to 2.70 here. Is in form and his xG p90 at 0.58 is very solid. I make him a fair bit shorter here at 2.30 and is probably still a bit under the radar, its telling that McKenna is trusting him in this huge game.

Fulham - Burnley 2u Raul Jimenez 2.4 (Betvictor, Betway), honestly this is just mispriced at this point by these firms and rest of market is about right and its a great spot for them as a team. Would take down to 2.25 but probably leave anything lower.

Liverpool vs Galatasaray Virgil Van Dijk anytime goalscorer 7.00 Konate anytime goalscorer at 9.5 Gala weak on set-pieces and are missing their most aerial dominant CB in Sanchez

Chelsea vs PSG Bradley Barcola anytime goalscorer at 3.75 Chelsea trail 5-2 and need 4 unanswered to go through. They'll throw everything forward from minute one. That's the setup for Barcola He's averaging 2.3 shots per 90 in the UCL and 2.26 in Ligue 1 this season, the volume is there regardless of competition. but the finishing in Europe hasn't matched: 0.42 xG per 90 in the UCL, converting at just 0.18 goals per 90. in Ligue 1 he's actually overperforming his xG (0.40 goals vs 0.36 xG), so the quality is there, the UCL numbers are due a correction Scored the opener in the first leg, 2 shots 2 on target from 78 minutes. Chelsea's right side was his playground PSG have scored 2+ in 69% of their last 16 UCL games. with Chelsea forced to push high and leave space in behind, Barcola's pace on the transition should generate 2-3 clear looks. 3.75 is value

🚨Bets for today are onboard, full breakdown for each selection. Games covered Arsenal vs Everton Chelsea vs Newcastle West Ham vs Man City Real Madrid vs Elche Lorient vs Lens HSV vs FC Koln 📰Substack below 🔗 👇

🇪🇺🏆Some UEL and UECL bangers on the way. Sending today's bets our for free because I love you all so much. 📰Substack link in bio

🟡🔴 Galatasaray @ 4.58 ✅ Had the TT too but didn't quite get that one over the line. Well played if you faded Liverpool there 👏

🇪🇺🏆All my UCL picks and analysis are available here neilmac.substack.com/p/champions-le… featured Galatasaray vs Liverpool Newcastle vs Barca Atleti vs Spurs

Fulham - West Ham 2u Raul Jimenez 2.75 (Betvictor 2.8 available with Betway for those that can), We are at risk of sounding like a broken record here but certain firms just arent adjusting for how big an impact Jimenez is having. I make him 2.41, similar to sharper firms.

BetVictor have pushed Jimenez out to 3.00 now, Would make him a max 3u bet at that price if anyone hasnt bet it already

Fulham - Spurs 2u Raul Jimenez 2.80 (VC, MGM) Would take anything 2.50 and over here. Put simply some of the market just hasnt caught up with how prolific he has been. He is responsible for 30%ish of their xG this year and even higher on a p90 basis. I make him conservatively 2.39

Leeds v Man City 1u Marmoush 3.5 (betvictor) would take 3.2 or better here. Pretty obviously based on team news that Haaland is out. Would make him 2.80 but its a somewhat tentative number.

@TheJobber No but there is only limited liquidity.

@AGSBets Is BF Exch hard to get on?

Not going to put it up as a bet as the firms that offer it are hard to get on with but the Evens Ekitike (MGM, BF Exch) in Liverpool - West Ham game is decent value

Couple for the early game Bournemouth - Sunderland 1u Evanilson 2.75 (Virgin, livescore etc, 2.70 fine with Unibet too 2.80 MGM is v nice). 0.5u Dan Ballard 9.00 (Sky, Star etc). Backed both before and reasons very similar. Make Evanilson 2.60 chance and Ballard 8.47.

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Some late money came in for Brighton today about 15 mins left in this one Alerts here (free) t.me/+JVrm6iEkIsE4M…