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Interesting to revisit my older article on the counter-intuitive *resilience* of the modern world system.
It has aged incredibly well, and was very counter-narrative when written.
palladiummag.com/2022/04/11/col…
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Adam Van Buskirk
1.6K posts
Adam Van Buskirk
@AHVanBuskirk
Observing the Present to Understand the Future.
New Mexico Katılım Ocak 2023
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Adam Van Buskirk retweetledi
@AHVanBuskirk Enjoyed this article and shared it with my fraternal society. Thank you!
palladiummag.com/2023/05/18/ind…
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It's also interesting to consider how much of all this infrastructure was constructed after the year 2000.
For the most part these aren't legacy systems from some past era of higher competance.
Tobias Schneider@tobiaschneider
You always have to remember that modern civilization depends in no small part on somebody somewhere knowing how to build stuff like this and then actually doing it
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In the bigger picture, it's always very hard to understand the motives of Pakistani actions, due to their unique triangulation and ambigious relationship with both China and the USA.
Baba Banaras™@RealBababanaras
BREAKING : Local sources confirm that Pakistan Army is moving heavy artillery & equipment along the border with Iran. Looks like 2nd phase of the US-Israel op coming Kurds are attacking Iran from the West. Is Pakistan going to do something from the East. (Representative Video)
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Or could this be fortifying control of W. Pakistan against spill over disruption from reported anti-Tehran activity by Iranian Baloch militants?
Actual movement by Pakistan into Iranian Baluchistan towards Chabahar Port would of course be a next level event.
Baba Banaras™@RealBababanaras
BREAKING : Local sources confirm that Pakistan Army is moving heavy artillery & equipment along the border with Iran. Looks like 2nd phase of the US-Israel op coming Kurds are attacking Iran from the West. Is Pakistan going to do something from the East. (Representative Video)
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As I was saying, there are immense repercussions if Tehran loses control of Iranian Baluchistan.
Including possible long term creation of a marine-overland trade corridor through Kabul and/or Mazar e Sharif into central Asia that is not controlled by Iran or Pakistan.
Wladimir van Wilgenburg@vvanwilgenburg
"Baluch militants have attacked police patrols in the city of Zahedan, and a large number of officers have been killed and wounded". - @TheBalochWorld - Iran
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@AGLabBear I was thinking almost the opposite, than an autonomous Baluchistan on the Iranian side would destabilize Pakistan, which has moved back towards being a *somewhat* closer US ally in this administration.
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Fog of war and all that, but at the moment speculation appears to be the reverse, that the plan is to facilitate rebellion in the northwestern Kurdish part of the country. (India probably does not want a Pakistan-aligned Iranian Baluchistan, which an independent one would be, so it might be the case that we agreed not to do that so Modi would play ball).
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My big question on the Iran events is what happens in Iranian Baluchistan?
Is there a plan to facilitate rebellion in that province?
A USA-friendly coastal strip no longer controlled by Tehran has massive impacts, would be seismic for politics in the entire Af-Pak region.
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In many cases, the Nation makes the People, rather than vice versa.
Dovahhatty@Hattydovah
funny thing is had the Greeks conquered all this in 1920 millions of people who are proud turks today would say that they are, and have always been, proud Greeks. Same the other way around
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The larger Americas have a certain similarity to China.
Blocs of ~ 1 billion, with an industrialized metropole and a much lower GDP hinterland providing labor.
The EU has also attempted this with less success, as their "hinterland" of MENA and Africa doesn't work so well.
Civixplorer@Civixplorer
Different ways to view the Americas. Do you agree with all?
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The USA does in a sense have colonies (most of the world in fact).
But the "Hegemony" is uniquely bad at creating any formal or legible opportunities for our overproduced elite to go overseas.
This may change over time.
Mikita 🇧🇾🫡@mikitaposts
Historically in this scenario, we would send the excess elite to far-flung colonies to govern them. But we don’t have any colonies
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The ironic thing is that (from the perspective of a post-scarcity 1st worlder) Albania as a physical place is one of the absolute jewels of the earth.
It might seriously be the best location on earth for overall climate, topography, scenery, coast, etc.
Tantric Turanist 🇫🇮🇺🇦@cornu__copia
We are seeing actual Migration Period like population transfers. Albania has one of the highest emigration rates and half of the Albanian citizens already reside abroad. It's possible Albanians will change their location like the Hungarians did while Albania gets repopulated.
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The great "Movement towards the Metropole" has infinite sub-layers.
Each migrant who finally enters the USA or Australia is the tip of the iceberg.
Behind him lies a complex web of things like migration from India to Bhutan, Nepal to Sardinia, Sri Lanka to Romania.
Birth Gauge@BirthGauge
While Bhutan empties out to Australia, the country has now started to import foreign domestic workers from India. asianews.network/foreign-domest…
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Many will say "well that's just because of immigrants."
But in most countries, even the immigrants instantly fall to very low fertility much like the natives.
Apples to apples, the USA is still different and will be the YOUNGEST industrialized country going forward!
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬@lymanstoneky
It really is striking the extent to which the U.S. really is going to be the "last man standing" for industrial-world fertility. Gonna be us and Israel.
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@rabcyr_alt There is a very finite total quantity of new world Hispanics, since their birthrates are no longer high.
There is also only a modest economic incentive to go to Spain, if anything the gap in per capita GDP between Spain and parts of Latin American is shrinking.
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@AHVanBuskirk france not particularly growing. spain and italy collapsing, but new world hispanics and italians can trivially immigrate there now and become citizens. they aren’t really right now, but that could change very soon.
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Fascinating, especially the huge disparities between nations.
Look at France and Spain.
Feels like France will end up dominating Europe like a mini-USA.
Michael A. Arouet@MichaelAArouet
Eye-opening, there will be a lot of vacant and worthless real estate in Poland, Italy, and Spain in 10 years, not in 2100. And don’t assume you’ll be able to live off your pension, unless AI and robots take over our jobs fast. Most people still don’t understand what’s coming.
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@GeringerAdam Region of Iran with a substantial history of armed ethic separatism and great geopolitical importance due to the ports on the Arabian sea.
There is a related separatist movement across the border in Pakistani Baluchistan, and it also borders Afghanistan.
A real flash point!
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@AHVanBuskirk I only know that word because of the rugs they make
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I wonder what is going on in Iranian Baluchistan today?
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They also have a modern "interstate style" highway system, with its own professionalized police and emergency services.
Strange country all around, defies simplistic analysis.
Pizza@number_pizza111
It's funny how nothing in Pakistan functions except the air force, nuclear program, and intelligence apparatus, three of the hardest to establish institutions of the modern world.
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