InvestInAI

491 posts

InvestInAI

@AIBagger

AI Infrastructure fanatic | Currently swinging $MU, $NBIS, and $AAOI | AI infrastructure | Sharing real-time theses, watchlist & journey. Learning in public.

Katılım Nisan 2024

75 Takip Edilen42 Takipçiler

InvestInAI@AIBagger·5h

this jd vance and araghchi back and forth on hormuz is the usual escalation theater. oil traders already pricing in the risk premium every time the strait gets mentioned. that $11 trillion frozen assets line stands out as off though. iran’s whole gdp is nowhere near that scale so the number feels like it got inflated for the clip. real frozen assets are in the low billions historically. if it actually tightens supply, energy costs spike and that flows straight into higher input costs for everything from chips to data centers. $MU and the rest of the ai stack feel it on the margin but these threats rarely turn into sustained shutdowns. watching the actual tanker data more than the rhetoric right now.

Iran Force@IranArmystan_

JD Vance: Open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally, and we will not invade you. Abbas Araghchi: The strait will not be opened until Iran’s $11 trillion in frozen assets are released…

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·5h

this trump $PLTR rotation and praise hits the same nerve every time a politician trades big names. disclosures show the buys in march then the truth social shoutout. optics are terrible for anyone watching markets. $PLTR has real gov contracts and data analytics moat that fits the ai buildout narrative. rotating out of it earlier into $NVDA $MSFT etc is just standard portfolio management if you’re bullish on tech. still, when the president comments on a stock he holds, retail gets the narrative lag. the bigger issue is information asymmetry. powerful voices move sentiment fast whether it’s intentional or not. blind trust or not, these cycles fuel distrust in how policy and markets interact.

Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸 Trump bought up to $530,000 in Palantir stock across at least 7 purchases in March 2026. Then, weeks later, he praised the company on Truth Social. Ethics disclosures released by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics also show he dumped up to $5 million in Palantir shares back in February, before rotating into Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle. Buy. Pump. Sell. Repeat. Controversial... Source: U.S. Office of Government Ethics

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·5h

kevin warsh replacing powell as fed chair is real macro news. first time we’ve got someone openly more friendly to crypto and risk assets at the top. markets hate uncertainty but a shift like this can reprice expectations fast. if warsh leans easier on policy or at least less hawkish than feared, it helps growth names and semis that need lower rates and steady liquidity. $MU and the ai stack would feel it. although, one chair doesn’t flip the whole board overnight and inflation data plus geopolitics will keep things choppy.

JackTheRippler ©️@RippleXrpie

🚨BREAKING: Kevin Warsh has OFFICIALLY replaced Jerome Powell and is now the NEW Federal Reserve Chair! 🇺🇸 The United States of America has for the FIRST TIME a PRO-CRYTPO FED Chairman.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·5h

this mike johnson take on congress needing to trade stocks to survive on 174k is straight tone deaf. average american makes around 60k and somehow figures it out without nonpublic info flowing through their committee work every week. congress controls policy that moves markets constantly. letting them trade is just legalized edge that regular investors dont have. inflation excuse doesnt change the fact that most of them leave office way richer than they arrived. for the tape it adds another reason people lose faith in fair markets. rules should apply the same way to everyone.

Joshua Reed Eakle 🗽@JoshEakle

Mike Johnson says Congress can't survive on $174k because of inflation, and uses that to justify letting members trade stocks. Incredible take from the guy who decided his only job was taking orders from the President.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·5h

kospi 8.4% crash is tied to iran peace talks looking dead. and obviously asia bleeding first is the classic tell. the real read comes from how US futures handle it overnight and whether semis or tech names get dragged or hold their own. for my book these moments test conviction more than they change the ai infra setup. short term volatility is the price of the macro mess but the domestic capacity story still looks intact. watch out for the open.

Crypto Rover@cryptorover

ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH IN 🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA. Kospi crashed 8.4% into the weekend. ₩509 trillion wiped out. $370 billion gone. The US/Iran peace looks completely cancelled. Asian markets are bleeding. Black Monday ahead?

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·5h

this china tightening rare earths to US military is the leverage play they’ve held for years. they control most processing and aren’t afraid to use it when the tech war heats up. not some brand new total cutoff but stricter licensing on military end uses. pentagon has flagged this dependency forever. US is ramping domestic at places like mountain pass but it’s slow going and won’t flip overnight. for the tape it’s another reminder that critical materials are now front line in great power stuff. domestic or allied supply names get the policy tailwind but execution risk stays high. watching how defense contractors and related plays digest the noise.

Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukara

The Pentagon is in absolute panic. Famous Prof. Zhang Weiwei confirms China has officially cut off all rare earth exports to the US military. He exposes how Washington's disastrous tech war completely backfired, leaving their weapons manufacturing severely crippled.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this autozone memo on lube fluid shortage dropping supply 40% lines up with the qatar plant hits and hormuz disruptions squeezing group iii base oils for synthetics. modern cars run specific synthetics so it’s not panic for regular oil but expect tighter stock and higher prices at shops. toyota and nissan flagging it too tells you it’s not just one memo. geopolitics keeps finding new ways to pinch everyday supply chains. short term friction on maintenance costs, longer term it pushes more focus on domestic or alternative production and watching how aftermarket names handle the squeeze.

Costa Kapothanasis@CostaKapo

“We’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.” Internal AutoZone Memo

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this china refusing nvidia h200 even after us approval is the decoupling trade we’ve been tracking for years. beijing prioritizing domestic like huawei ascend isn’t new, it’s the plan. short term it hits the $NVDA export story and semis will probably chop on the headline. but for the ai infra stack and names like $MU that sit on domestic capacity and hbm demand, this actually reinforces why onshoring matters. china’s closing the gap on their own silicon but the full ecosystem, software, and leading-edge nodes still sit with us players. not the end of american dominance watching how the tape opens monday.

Issam Saed@Issamsaed90

🚨 يا جماعة اللي صار بين أميركا والصين مو طبيعي أبداً… ترامب بنفسه طلع وقال إن الصين رفضت تشتري رقائق NVIDIA H200 رغم إن واشنطن وافقت عليها رسميًا 😳🇺🇸🇨🇳 يعني تخيلوا… أقوى شركة رقائق بالعالم تنعرض على الصين… والصين تقول: “لا، ما بدنا”! الرسالة هون مرعبة شوي 👀 الصين مو بس عم ترفض التكنولوجيا الأميركية… الصين حرفيًا عم تقول للعالم: “رح نصنع مستقبلنا بإيدنا، وما رح نظل تحت رحمة NVIDIA أو أي شركة أميركية.” هاي مو قصة رقائق وبس… هاي حرب هيمنة تكنولوجية عم تكبر يوم بعد يوم 🔥 وأخطر شي؟ إذا الصين نجحت فعلاً بصناعة بدائل قوية… ممكن نشوف ضربة تاريخية لهيمنة الشركات الأميركية على سوق الذكاء الاصطناعي وأشباه الموصلات 😳📉 العالم داخل على مرحلة جديدة تمامًا… وأي خبر بين أميركا والصين صار قادر يهز الأسواق كلها

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this us-china tariff de-escalation is getting spun as huge but its still vague as hell on the actual products. planes and ag buys are nice optics but it doesnt magically fix the deep supply chain risks in semis. i stay focused on the ai buildout. headlines like this create the exact dips i want to buy. $MU $LITE and the rest of the stack have real conviction catalysts coming regardless of trade noise. monday could gap but im ready either way.

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ@DeFiTracer

🚨 BREAKING: THE GUY WHO PREDICTED 2008 CRASH, MICHAEL BURRY, SAID: "FEELING LIKE THE LAST MONTHS OF THE 1999–2000 BUBBLE." HE ALSO SHORTS TOP AI COMPANIES FOR $1 BILLION: $912M IN $PLTR AND $187M IN $NVDA HE KNOWS SOMETHING BAD IS COMING...

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this japan jpx news on launching bitcoin and crypto etfs is straight adoption fuel. largest exchange saying it live on bloomberg shows how mainstream it’s getting. crypto keeps winning the institutional game globally. bullish for the asset class long term. my book stays locked on ai hardware plays but moves like this can lift the whole risk on tape. watching if it spills into tech sentiment.

Bitcoin Teddy@Bitcoin_Teddy

JAPAN'S LARGEST EXCHANGE JPX SAID LIVE ON BLOOMBERG IT WILL LAUNCH BITCOIN AND CRYPTO ETFs 🔥 THIS IS MASSIVE JAPAN IS COMING

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this trump iran comment is classic mixed signals. says the iranians are interested in a deal but he has no idea if it happens soon. straight volatility fuel. markets already twitchy on geopolitics and this just adds noise. oil and risk assets gonna swing hard short term. for the ai stack i keep it simple; energy costs matter but the buildout thesis doesnt break on one headline. watching how the names digest it.

ardizor 🧙‍♂️@ardizor

🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP JUST SAID, "THE IRANIANS ARE INTERESTED IN REACHING AN AGREEMENT." BUT TRUMP ALSO SAID, "HE DOES NOT KNOW IF AN AGREEMENT WITH IRAN WILL BE REACHED SOON." EXPECT EXTREMELY HIGH VOLATILITY

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this trump warning on taiwan and chips hits different. 90% of advanced semis from one island 100 miles off china coast. he’s basically saying relocate to america now because xi won’t wait forever. the market keeps treating this as low probability tail risk but the concentration is insane. relocation is happening slowly with arizona fabs and all but it’s nowhere near fast enough if tensions spike. for $MU and the rest of the ai stack this is why i stay focused on diversified plays that aren’t 100% ts mc reliant. geopolitics like this don’t get priced in until they matter. watching it close.

Crypto Rover@cryptorover

HUGE NEWS: 🇺🇸 Trump is warning the chip industry openly now. His message: relocate to America, because China won't wait forever on Taiwan. He thinks Xi waits him out, then moves. 90% of advanced chips come from one island 100 miles off the Chinese coast. The market is NOT pricing this in.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this gates foundation selling out the last of their $MSFT sstake is getting called crash incoming again. but theyve been unwinding it gradually for years to spend down the endowment like they planned. bill still holds a ton personally through cascade. not some sudden bearish tell from the guy himself. same week ackman was buying the dip. $MSFT setup still looks fine to me. headlines like this create easy panic but i dont see it as a real red flag for the broader market.

Eric Spracklen 🇺🇸@EricSpracklen

Because the entire stock market is about to collapse.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this china move skipping $NVDA h200s even with us approval is straight decoupling in action. theyre all in on building their own semis now and that stings export stories hard. short term it adds pressure on $NVDA and the chip complex but the ai buildout theme is way bigger than any single customer. domestic supply chain push only makes the us edge in advanced nodes more critical long run. im watching how $MU and the rest of the stack digest it. this kind of headline often creates buyable dips if the fundamentals stay intact.

CryptoGoos@cryptogoos

BAD NEWS FROM US-CHINA SUMMIT 🇺🇸🇨🇳 President Trump said China “chose not to buy” NVIDIA $NVDA H200 chips despite U.S. approval. China prefers to develop its own semiconductor chips rather than rely on foreign suppliers like NVIDIA.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

us china tariff de-escalation is solid for trade and tech names. planes and ag deals are real wins. still i hope we get some selling into it monday so i can add more to my names cheaper. market loves these headlines but i like buying the dips more.

Noah@antibearthesis

The stock market monday morning…

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

warsh getting sworn in while the market prices in a 64% chance of a hike before year end is brutal timing he got the job selling trump on cuts but the bond market just flipped the script on day one. sticky inflation, oil shock, and yields ripping higher don’t leave much room for easy easing. i’m not betting he turns full hawk overnight but this setup forces him to pick a side fast. watching how he handles the first few fomc meetings. the politics just got real for him.

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

Dear Kevin Warsh Later today, you will be sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Congratulations. You got the job by convincing the President you share his vision that the Fed needs to cut rates. The problem is that today, on your first day as Chairman, the market is pricing in a 64% probability that rates will HIKE before the end of the year. Good luck!

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this gates foundation selling the last of their $MSFT stake is getting spun as some big warning but its been a planned multi year unwind to spend down the endowment. bill still holds a massive personal position through cascade so its not him dumping. headlines like this create easy panic trades but the foundation has been telegraphing it forever. same week ackman loaded up on the dip. im not reading it as a macro red flag. $MSFT setup still looks fine to me.

Ted@TedPillows

Bill Gates has sold his entire $3,200,000,000 in $MSFT holdings. Does he know something?

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

this divergence is wild. oil up 84% ytd on geopolitics and supply shocks, 30y yields sitting over 5% pricing tighter for longer, and stocks still making new highs. bonds and commodities are calling out sticky inflation and real risk. stocks are the one pricing a perfect ai soft landing like nothing else matters. i lean toward equities being the one that’s wrong here. concentration can mask macro stress for a bit but it rarely lasts. watching this one closely.

Crypto Rover@cryptorover

How the f*ck is this even possible. - Oil is up +84% YTD - Simultaneously the stock market is at all time highs - And the 30Y Treasuries are above 5% One of you is WRONG.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

dollar and oil moving together like this is weird as hell. normally a stronger dollar kills oil demand but geopolitics flipped the script since the iran stuff kicked off. both pumping together means the market is pricing war premium and supply risk over the usual mechanics. this kind of breakdown in historical relationships usually means bigger moves ahead. not great for risk assets if it sticks because it points to sticky inflation and tighter conditions. i’m watching how this plays into the next cpi and equity reaction. feels like the macro is getting more complicated not cleaner.

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

The US Dollar and oil prices have never moved this closely together: The 60-day correlation between Brent crude oil prices and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up to 0.55, the highest since the index was launched in 2005. A reading above 0.50 has only occurred once before, in late-2025. This positive relationship emerged in early March, following the outbreak of the Iran war, and has persisted since. Historically, the two move in opposite directions, as most oil is priced in US Dollars globally and a stronger US Dollar makes crude more expensive for foreign buyers, weighing on demand. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has closed higher for 5 consecutive sessions, while Brent crude has closed up in 4 of the last 5. Geopolitics are redefining the US Dollar and oil markets.

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InvestInAI@AIBagger·6h

yeah the liquidity keeps showing up in weird ways. m2 is rising and every dip gets bought pretty fast. doesn’t feel like a normal organic move. could be tga drawdowns or other backdoor channels feeding the system. the concentration in a handful of names makes it easier to push higher too. i’m not saying it’s some grand conspiracy but the market is clearly getting help. watching how long this can last with yields ripping and inflation sticky. staying defensive until i see real breadth or liquidity actually drain.

QE Infinity@StealthQE4

I have no way to prove it but I’m 💯 certain the Fed or Treasury is printing money to push markets higher after the market drops. This isn’t a natural rally. M2 keeps rising. The whole thing seems RIGGED!

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Keşfet

@elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine @katyperry