ASHWIN AHMAD

824 posts

ASHWIN AHMAD

ASHWIN AHMAD

@ASHWINAHMAD3

Writer, adventurer and a firm believer in joie de vivre

New Delhi Katılım Nisan 2019
188 Takip Edilen159 Takipçiler
ASHWIN AHMAD retweetledi
Badr Albusaidi - بدر البوسعيدي
I want to be very clear - the door to diplomacy remains open. Talks in Geneva made genuine progress towards an unprecedented agreement between Iran and the United States and although the hope was to avoid war, war should not mean that the hope of peace is extinguished. I still believe in the power of diplomacy to resolve this conflict. The sooner talks are resumed the better it is for everyone.
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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
Shows what really happened in the US-Iran talks
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz

I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. My job is logistics. When two countries that cannot speak to each other need to speak to each other, I book the rooms. I prepare the briefing materials. I make sure the water glasses are the right distance apart. You would be surprised how much of diplomacy is water glasses. Too close and it feels informal. Too far and it feels like a tribunal. I have a chart. We had a very good month. Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran's nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. The hallway between the two rooms at the Royal Opera House conference center is forty-seven meters. I walked it two hundred and twelve times in February. This is good for my cardiovascular health. It was less good for my knees. Both are in the service of peace. By mid-February, we had something. Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister's phrase, to "never, ever" possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green. That phrase took eleven days. "Never, ever." The Iranians initially offered "not seek to." The Americans wanted "will not under any circumstances." We landed on "never, ever" at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma. Here is what they said, in the order they said it. February 24: "We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity." — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday. February 27, 8:30 AM EST: "The deal is within our reach." — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed "tomorrow" with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: "If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs." He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive. I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach. February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. "Never, ever." The Vice President used the word "encouraging." His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses. February 27, 4:00 PM EST: "Not happy with the pace." — President Trump, to reporters. Not happy with the pace. We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase "never, ever," which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway. Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years. Not happy with the pace. February 27, 9:47 PM EST: The Foreign Minister's flight departs Dulles for Muscat. I am in the seat behind him. He is reviewing Slide 14 on his laptop. The implementation timeline. Vienna technical sessions. The signing ceremony. The pens. I fall asleep over the Atlantic. I dream about water glasses. February 28, 6:00 AM GST: I wake up to push notifications. February 28: "The United States has begun major combat operations in Iran." — President Trump. Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated airstrikes. The United States and Israel. Tehran. Isfahan. Qom. Karaj. Kermanshah. Nuclear facilities. IRGC bases. Sites near the Supreme Leader's office. Israel called their half Operation Roaring Lion. Someone in both governments spent time choosing these names. Epic Fury. Roaring Lion. I spent eleven days on "never, ever." They spent it on branding. The President said Iran had "rejected American calls to halt its nuclear weapons production." Rejected. Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling. Iran had agreed to full verification. Iran had agreed to "never, ever." Iran had agreed to everything in a fourteen-page document that I typed in Times New Roman. The President said they rejected it. I do not know which document the President was reading. I know which one I typed. February 28, 18:45 UTC: Iran internet connectivity: four percent. — NetBlocks, confirmed by Cloudflare. Ninety-six percent of a country went dark. You cannot negotiate with a country at four percent connectivity. You cannot negotiate with a country that is being struck. You cannot negotiate. This is not a political opinion. This is a logistics assessment. February 28: The governor of Minab reported forty girls killed at an elementary school. I do not have logistics for that. There is no slide for that. The water glass chart does not cover that. February 28: Lockheed Martin: up. Northrop Grumman: up. RTX: up. Dow futures: down six hundred and twenty-two points. Gold: five thousand two hundred and ninety-six dollars. An analyst at AInvest published a note titled "Iran Strikes: Tactical Plays." The note recommended positions in oil, defense stocks, and gold. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten was nineteen dollars. The most expensive pen I have ever ordered was six hundred and thirty dollars. The math suggests I have been working in the wrong industry. Defense stocks do not require water glasses. Defense stocks do not require eleven days. Defense stocks require one morning. February 28: Israel closed its airspace and its schools. Iran launched retaliatory missiles toward US bases in the Gulf. The Supreme Leader promised a "crushing response." Israel's defense minister declared a permanent state of emergency. Everyone is using words I recognize in an order I do not. I recognize "permanent." I recognize "emergency." I do not recognize them next to each other. In diplomacy, nothing is permanent and everything is an emergency. In war it is the reverse. February 28: The Foreign Minister has not made a public statement. The briefing card is still in his breast pocket. It still says "within our reach."

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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
@seemasirohi What has happened to the pro-India caucus in the US? NSA Mike Waltz has pro-India views. Have they been silenced by Trump or are they still lobbying on behalf of India?
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Seema Sirohi
Seema Sirohi@seemasirohi·
Warning ⚠️ Indian anchors will not help India’s cause with belligerence. Do not repeat the mistakes of the recent India-Pak conflict. Let wiser professionals handle the problem with Trump. #IndiaUSTradeDeal
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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
My column on the ongoing Nimisha Priya case for which I interview Ambassador Talmiz Ahmad and other West Asia experts to understand what options does India have in Yemen. freepressjournal.in/india/breaking…
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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
Have joined Free Press Journal as foreign editor and columnist My roundup to EAM's China visit for the SCO summit, for which I speak to Ambassador Ashok Kantha on whether there is a way forward for India-China ties. Do read. freepressjournal.in/india/eam-s-ja…
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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
@royradhika7 Agree with this to an extent. There is often no severance pay, no guidelines and too much 'what boss says' culture. Having said this Indians work harder and faster than Europeans. Do we get our due for this in India? The answer sadly is no in most cases.
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Radhika Roy
Radhika Roy@royradhika7·
Have been in Europe for 6 months now & have started building up a resentment towards work culture in India. You work past 12AM on a daily basis, only to earn peanuts & to not be respected as an individual. You have no time to for yourself. How have we been living like this?
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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
My column in @GatewayHouse where I argue that that Saudi Arabia can play a calming role in ensuring stability to a troubled Middle East by playing a calming role in ongoing conflicts be it tensions with Iran or Syria. @AmbTrigunayat @ParulChandraP @AnoothiV
Gateway House@GatewayHouseIND

At a time of high geopolitical tensions #SaudiArabia can play a calming role as a mediator between the 🇺🇸, 🇮🇱 & 🇮🇷. @ASHWINAHMAD3 studies 🇸🇦's goodwill in #WestAsia & points out its role will be even more important following recent developments in #Syria. gatewayhouse.in/saudi-arabias-…

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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
My analysis for Gateway House on the secret of PM Netanyahu's success. Do read. @GatewayHouse @AnoothiV @ParulChandraP @AmbTrigunayat @SuryaGangadhar6
Gateway House@GatewayHouseIND

PM @netanyahu has cemented his place in #Israeli politics by balancing key domestic & international constituencies, writes @ASHWINAHMAD3. He analyzes the Prime Minister's war #strategy & points out how despite successes, his position remains vulnerable: gatewayhouse.in/netanyahu-knes…

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ASHWIN AHMAD retweetledi
Ramzy Baroud
Ramzy Baroud@RamzyBaroud·
Four things we learned following the Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel. And what is next? Make sure you like, share and follow. #الضاحية_الجنوبية #Gaza_Genocide#Hezbollah #IranAttack
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ASHWIN AHMAD retweetledi
Nitin A. Gokhale
Nitin A. Gokhale@nitingokhale·
Very proud of my hardworking, enterprising team, a mix of senior and younger colleagues, on reaching an important milestone of 200,000 subscribers for @StratNewsGlobal YouTube channel. And THANK YOU all our supporters who believe in us and have made this possible. Grateful🙏
Nitin A. Gokhale tweet mediaNitin A. Gokhale tweet mediaNitin A. Gokhale tweet media
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ASHWIN AHMAD
ASHWIN AHMAD@ASHWINAHMAD3·
@Stanovaya I am confused by your takeaway when you conclude Putin says, 'Let's be friends.' He talks about 'elites' not Presidents deciding matters in the US. How then does he find friendship with the US valuable? Yes, he speaks of negotiations but no mention of friendship. Your thoughts?
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Tatiana Stanovaya
Tatiana Stanovaya@Stanovaya·
A brief summary of Putin's interview regarding his messages to Americans: - Forget support for Ukraine and leave it to us. - Push the Ukrainian leadership towards capitulation: rewrite the Constitution, conduct political reform (prohibit anti-Russian moves), establish a neutral status (and significantly reduce the army). - Recognize the annexed territories as Russian – All five of them. - Release Krasikov. Justifiable murder is not a crime. - Reevaluate your entire foreign policy since 1991. And for the centuries to come. - Dissolve NATO. - Let's be friends.
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