Francesco Frentrop⚡

To understand Russia, you have to think like a Russian. Analysing it through a Western lens will only take you so far. 1) Russia no longer wants this war, but it cannot simply stop it. Because…Pride. A self-declared “great power” cannot admit defeat - especially not against a country it regards as smaller, weaker and fundamentally inferior. Withdrawal would not merely be seen as a military failure, but as a humiliation and a collapse of Russia’s entire imperial self-image. 2) Russian leadership operates like a mafia hierarchy, built around strongman culture. If Putin retreats, it will be interpreted as weakness. He will be cannibalised by the very structure he created. Remember - this is a man obsessed with longevity, who has directed his own daughters towards scientific research and poured enormous resources into extending his own life. He is terrified of death! He will not voluntarily choose an outcome that could threaten his personal survival. 3) Russia has already paid an enormous demographic and economic price. More than one million Russians - including a disproportionate share of the educated, urban and technically skilled population - have left the country since 2022. Another estimated 1.4 million have been killed, wounded or permanently disabled from the war. The economy is under severe strain. Inflation is high. Russians queue for hours - and in some cases days - for fuel. Farmers are warning that shortages of diesel and fertiliser could severely disrupt agricultural production, raising the risk of food shortages. 4) Russia is also terrified of what happens when the soldiers come home. Sex workers in Russia have reportedly described a mass exodus from the industry because returning veterans are exceptionally violent, cruel and sadistic. The Kremlin has been explicit that it does not want to repeat the aftermath of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, when half a million soldiers returned from a failed war to a collapsing country. Many came home traumatised, brutalised and unable to reintegrate. Organised crime, addiction and social violence surged. Russia cannot simply stop this war. What it can do is: 1) Continue the war of attrition and keep losing slowly to Ukraine - at an enormous cost to Ukrainians as well. 2) Intensify its cognitive and political warfare - deepen divisions within Europe, drive a wedge between the EU and the United States, and help bring more Russia-friendly governments to power. governments willing to abandon Ukraine or pressure Kyiv into accepting an unfavourable settlement. 3) Beg Trump to negotiate some form of Korean-style stalemate: a frozen front that gives Russia several years to rebuild its forces, rearm and resume the war later. 4) As an absolute last resort, escalate by attacking the NATO alliance - triggering a conventional war that they lose quickly. Then, and only then, they can say: look, we lost, but we fought the ENTIRE West. Russia cannot win this war. But it cannot stop it either - not through any conventional or politically survivable route anyway. P.S.: No, nukes are not an option either.